Good Tuesday evening everyone and thanks for all you do. I wanted to drop by to show you the latest warnings and advisories and throw out some comments on the upcoming winter storm.
Here is a look at the current warning map…
After looking at that map… a few things stand out to me…
– The NWS in Wilmington is apparently asleep as they have no advisories for northern Kentucky. That will change when the eggnog wears off.
– The NWS in Jackson is not far enough north and east with the Winter Storm Warning. They need to take it north to match up with what Louisville has.
– Not bashing here… just pointing out what your friendly weather dude would have the map look like.
– Significant amounts of snow and ice will fall across much of the state from Wednesday evening into Thursday and this will cause significant travel troubles during this time. The NAM continues to crank out much higher precip totals than the GFS. If the NAM numbers verify… look out! Some areas could really get hammered by heavy snow and a major ice event. The GFS appears to be going toward a wetter solution so the NAM may be on to something with respect to the amount of precip that falls.
I will have another update coming your way later this evening so check back. Take care.
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i hate ice!
this ice isn’t going to be fun, that’s for sure.
eastern kentucky is gonna get hammered.
Thanks Chris. cky and eky are going to get smacked. i think lots of mets in LMK, and local mets other than you will be very surprised.
I’m heading to the bunker to draw up some plans for the upcoming storm. LOL. Better go out and get your bread, eggs and milk guys, its gonna get bad.
Thanks Chris I just knew you were going to update soon! You never let us down! And we love you for it!
If anyone is interested, I have an updated site of my own. just click my name. That is, if you’re interested.
LEX 18 just posted a status update on their facebook wall and had said, “This will NOT be an epic ice storm, like we saw back in 2003 and 2009” I’m Thinking BM will be surprised!
c-BIV, Andy posted your comment on the wave 3 blog!!!!
Like him or hate him, I hope he’s right this time.
Right there with you on the last part.
Same here, i dislike Ice!
Amen to that!!!!
Just went and bought a kerosene heater. I hate ice storms so bad 🙁
well from the models I am looking at…this storm is gonna smack eastern kentucky…not gonna be good.
So when Chris says he would take it farther North and maybe East.(The warning) would that include Rowan County/Morehead? the last ice storm, I was w/out power for 7 days..cooked on the grill..luckily have a fireplace that I slept in front of haha..:) Love Chris to death..but I hope for ONCE he is wrong about it going my way..Sorry Chris! Btw..loved the comments on the blog
Just today I was able to get off my “mountain” from this last storm..and now another one..shew! Going tomorrow to buy another gas can and some gas …Even w/out ice, if the 5 inches of snow is wet..that can equal no power…
NAM is showing cky getting smacked too.
What is the totals looking like for the morehead/ashland area?
What are the chances of this storm shifting a little farther north? What would say the Southern half of Ohio Would be looking at? The NWS in Wilmington covers my area, but they seem to be late on a lot of things.
It is still possible that the low tracks more northward, but its not very likely. You guys will likely be in a wwa, but you never know. 🙂
Megan, I’m trying to find out the same thing! Seems no one responds to the Morehead area 🙁 Do you ever feel like u don’t know if ur E ky, Northeast? Central? when it comes to weather statements? haha
I live in Bath CO. Looks like mostly snow for us with a little ice. Will that hold or is the system track moving?
Lets try this again.
Chat Room Open….http://www.everywherechat.com/chatnow.php“>http://www.everywherechat.com/chatnow.php
Please sign in using your blog name. The room name you type in is KentuckyWeatherCenterChat
http://www.everywherechat.com/chatnow.php“>http://www.everywherechat.com/chatnow.php
Wave 3 is projecting Louisville will see all snow and sleet amounting to 2-4 inches. Other local stations see it differently. More moisture signals a stronger storm and a warmer storm to me. Apparently, the freezing rain line is either going to reach the southern Jefferson county border or into the city of Louisville.
With the GFS getting a bit wetter, I think that argues for a warmer and stronger storm which brings ice to far more areas than thought. I hope this isn’t the case though.
Thank You, I’m a weather guroo but not that knowledgeable on a lot of the different players of winter storms. But I appreciate the info and you comments on the blog.
YES! I feel the exact same way lol.
No prob, and thanks!!
Any idea what time this event may start in my next of the woods (Lincoln Co.)?
so? tornado larkin..I live in knox county, just beyond middleboro..how do you see this storm tracking that way?? more ice? rain? snow? I’m just curious…it looks like a bad storm either way you look at it.
Mt. Sterling is the same! I wish we weren’t covered by Jackson WS. We are just on the line with the warning/advisory. Does that equal a “watch”?
What is the outlook for Corbin ??
Last time I went to a chat room with someone, I ended up marrying him! lol
Looks like period of snow and sleet, then freezing rain, and then a changeover to rain.
Looks like snow, sleet then freezing rain the rain.
I am going with the wave mets on this one. I have a feeling that it will be 95% fz moisture in the sky
love your blog!!
so no ice storm?
Mike, I went to the chat room, but it is no fun chatting with yourself! The place was as empty as my wallet will be when Christmas is over!;)
the 19th 20 around that time storm look very interestring to say least, it cold and i say COULD make last snow look puny if things hit just right. 18z look good.
the 1`2z was AWESOME as well. rihght now look like a 12 of snow could be very possible sunday thru tuesday.
for SE/E ky as it be a sharp cut off as central ky west not much at all.
just got my generator in, not going say what i gave for it but it was well worth it.
the 19th 20 around that time storm look very interestring to say least, it cold and i say COULD make last snow look puny if things hit just right. 18z look good.
euro picking up on iot too!!!!!!!!!!
BAILEY is focused on the terrible icing coming, so hewait till thursday afternoon to get u guys hype up on this one.
the 1`2z was AWESOME as well. rihght now look like a 12 of snow could be very possible sunday thru tuesday.
for SE/E ky as it be a sharp cut off as central ky west not much at all.
just got my generator in, not going say what i gave for it but it was well worth it.
Hi fellow weather freaks! I can call us all that, as here we are, checking out the weather blog for the umpteenth time today! (At least I speak for myself, anyway.) 😉
I see that Chris and a few others here are feeling kind of like I am..this thing is going to be a mess, and quite a few of us seem to be in line for a smackdown with snow and ice…NOT on my favorites list….we will see. But,make your preparations NOW. NOT tomorrow night when it has started.
You care to provide a link please. I would like to see it. Thanks!
How much ice did Lexington get in 2003 and 2009? Thanks.
I hope you’re teasing about the generator being a stoled item…If not, hope u know its against the law to buy stolen items and I wouldn’t brag on the net about it… but i assume ur teasing about it being stolen…lol
Thanks man!!!
Just went to the garage to prepare my generator and it was not there!!!! ROLO..My dog was barking like *#@! earlier. I need my generator back..LOL
I commented on future storms in the last blog. Xmas and a couple days after look very impressive even know it is a couple weeks out.
Looks like you guys may not have the most.
What do yall think about the NWS Louisville outlook. Anyone south of I-64 they are calling for around 1 inch of snow and a 1/4″ inch of ice. I think they could be underplaying it a bit… As long as that freezing line stays south!
When is this predicted to start for central Ky Like mercer county?
Major shout out to KYWEATHERCENTER.COM on WAVE3 blog from JB! Lordy, JB is sorely missed.
Something nobody is talking about is possible flooding if it does change to rain. That would also be bad if the snow on the ground melts fast.
Chris another local station has the map for the biggest Ice Pikeville and across I heard no mention of snow maybe I missed it.I just heard Ice and rain thoughts Chris or anyone please?
Also I hope this is never your blog and I am quoiting
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for our entire area.
Main Threats:
•Icing – Possible Ice Accumulation
•Snow – More Snow accumulations
I’ll have more details soon!
C-Ya Bye
Love the guy but whats that?
12 inches when.
Wonder when we will get an update on where this ice is going? The local weather people act like there is really nothing to worry about.
so? what do you expect out of this? no ice..no snow? I’m not quite sure with everything that has been mention in the last 6 hours.
and btw? is their a storm brewing for sunday as well?
I am with ya Tom.
has anybody read what the “other guy” posted on his blog to try to explain his forecast BOMB! So sad!! lol.. His explanation is pretty much people can’t measure snow…
You are kidding wow.
What is it looking like for Harrison County? Anybody.
And we can’t even leave comments to defend ourselves…LOL
WAVE3 and John Belski just gave KWC and CB free advertisement. That is great of them them and I also like there 6.5 on the Bread Index….THINK SNOW…
I am in Pikeville whats your thoughts,it seems Pikeville is the line on the line I am afraid Ice do you think we will see any snow? Where are you?
Before you know it CB and Wave3 will be calling each other for there opinions to hell with the NWS boys. They have mutual respect for one another after all they read each others blogs.
I here you there…
Any idea on when it is supposed to start?
Jo, you took the words right outta my mouth. His explanation was quite sad…and that is really what it was! Sorry, how ’bout you missed the forecast, plain and simple.
I got a tweet from chris bailey..I sent him a message..asking about our county in knox how much ice we would get…he said several hours worth, this isnt good….
Rolo where is mine I heard you were having a sale lol????
By all means Stay out of those chat rooms lol. Just messing with you.
Wow..they are all great mets…can you imagine all of them on one team..JB, Harned, Goode, Bailey – the Four Riders of the Forecast Apocalypse. All weather knowledge would be theirs, tornadoes would bow down in their presence, ice and snow would ask permission to fall.
What would be your fantasy Met team? (I’d have to add Tom Wills too)
In the meanwhile, how long will it take this system to pass through…is it fast?
Wow….they are all great mets…can you imagine all of them on one team..JB, Harned, Goode, Bailey – the Four Riders of the Forecast Apocalypse. All weather knowledge would be theirs, tornadoes would bow down in their presence, ice and snow would ask permission to fall.
What would be your fantasy Met team? (I’d have to add Tom Wills too)
In the meanwhile, how long will it take this system to pass through…is it fast?
Tornadolarking…wow, did you tell on me!! haha. I’m glad it’s up. I was really looking forward to a response, however. Just nice to see they posted something with Chris’ name in it.
Wow..they are all great mets…can you imagine all of them on one team..JB, Harned, Goode, Bailey – the Four Riders of the Forecast Apocalypse. All weather knowledge would be theirs, tornadoes would bow down in their presence, ice and snow would ask permission to fall.
What would be your fantasy Met team? (I’d have to add Tom Wills too)
In the meanwhile, how long will it take this system to pass through…is it fast?
cool…
That’s bad. I’m just needing to peg about when it is going to start.
Wow..they are all great mets…can you imagine all of them on one team..JB, Harned, Goode, Bailey – the Four Riders of the Forecast Apocalypse. All weather knowledge would be theirs, tornadoes would bow down in their presence, ice and snow would ask permission to fall.
What would be your fantasy Met team? (I’d have to add Tom Wills too)
In the meanwhile, how long will it take this system to pass through…is it fast?
why are all of my comments going into moderation?
How about letcher co.
Please include James Spann and Glen Burns to that list 🙂
this system is gonna be nasty but..the next one coming in for sunday and into tuesday could drop a foot of snow in eastern kentucky..if models set up correctly like they are now.
Stop picking on Rolo. He’s been a major part of this blog for years and I love his comments.
Just got back from the store, Stocked up on Milk, soda, bread, chips, snacks and Corona Beer : )
Did you get Lincoln anything? 🙂
OK, if you average GFS and NAM output, the ENTIRE I 64 corridor gets a solid .5″ of precip. This lasts for 18 HOURS. And the surface temps will be around freezing or below for the entire event.
Now, it’s been a while since met. school…but can somebody explain to me how in the world the TV guys are missing this??? “Fast moving storm”, “very little ice”, “nothing like 2009″… are you kidding me??
Can anyone give my a link for the NAM or GFS for this weekend? Thanks.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif
new update on forecast low track has shifted more south by about 100 miles, how does this affect qpf totals or high temps thurs?
That actually 5 hours old.. but yeh, it would reduce our total precip. if the low goes way south.
new update!
NAM has clearly had .6-.8 inches of ice for Louisville metro to east of Lexington. This plays out would rival 09. Agreed???
Yes it was a little offensive actually to the people that reported in. Sorry I have never spoken ill of anyone on here or anywhere else, but that just “takes the cake”. Chris Bailey is the only one I listen to all! Have read this blog faithfully but rarely post because I have no knowledge of weather but come on.. Love all you guys
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