Good afternoon everyone. The blog is in full steam ahead Winter Storm ALERT mode as a significant round of Ice and Snow will moving into the state over the next few days. There are still some questions on the exact type of precipitation for any one given location. That said… the moisture should be plentiful leading to a nasty round of winter weather.
Here is my first take on how I see this storm playing out…
Some thoughts going into the first call…
– Low pressure will track across Tennessee throwing moisture northward into the region. I am thinking the models will continue to spit out higher precip totals in coming runs as they get a better handle on this low.
– Low level arctic cold air is in place and will hang tough through the majority of the storm… especially across the northern half of our region. The models typically try to erode this cold air way too quickly and that is likely to be the case once again. That said… its not like the models are warm by any means. We would only be talking about a temp swing from 28-35 degrees from north to south. In this setup… one degree can make a HUGE difference.
– The area outlined in the Ice storm is of particular concern as this region can pick up .25: to .50″ of ice with locally higher amounts possible. This would lead to a dangerous scenario and one we will be watching closely. The precip in this region should begin as a period of snow before going to freezing rain. It is also possible for some areas… mainly south… to switch to a period of plain rain if temps can spike just above freezing for a while.
– Farther north… the cold will be a little deeper allowing for a longer period of snow. Even here… Freezing rain and sleet can mix in with the snow with a changeover to the ice possible for some. Snow totals are dependent on how much ice mixes in.
– Keep in mind… the ground if frozen solid and we have a good snowpack. This will help keep those temps at the surface from rising very much. Even if actual air temps go just above freezing… rain falling onto a ground with temps well below freezing can still result in some icing.
The blog will continue to watch this storm and have updates as needed so be sure to check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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Say it ain’t so, Chris! Say it ain’t so! I would prefer a ton of snow, or just plain rain rather than ice….but, I will make the necessary preparations for the worst case sceneario, and hope it is wrong. (Sorry, Chris, I am usually rooting for your forecasts, but I really hope you miss the ice with this one, although I know you won’t.) 😉
Thanks for keeping us ahead of the storm. Looking forward to the next update….
Chat Room is open for anyone wanting to use it. Please sign in using your blog name.
http://www.everywherechat.com/chatnow.php
Likes like in Woodford Co we are right on the fence. Thursday is my day off and wanted to do some shopping. Now not looking so good.
Crap! I’ve seen this story before and it meant five nights in a hotel in January 2009.
NOT GOOD!!! Middlesboro is in the ICE STORM section!!!
Ugh.
Would someone please give me their best thought for the Louisville/Southern Indiana area. Thank you 🙂
looking at surface low track on hpc…this is going to hammer central ky
When will the temperatures be high enough to melt the ice and snowcover we have now? With the ground covered it seems like the temps would struggle to facilitate the ice or even more so the rain?
From everything that I have seen and heard discussed, we aren’t leaving the cellar or moisture for a while. At least not until the New Year.
Living in Somerset, I hope like heck you are wrong on this one Chris!!
I would say we’ll go above freezing down here on thursday but its that period of time leading up to thursday that it could be tricky down here…I have seen these types of systems down here and wel USUALLY end up with temps. around 40 and rain…but We shall see.
Hey Chris! I was just on here hoping you would update and of course you did! Thanks for all your hard work!! Looks like we will get mostly snow with some ice. Hopefully that low won’t track any more north!
Some of the Meteorologist are saying LOU will go over 32F for several hours Thursday. I am reluctant to think this will happen. Regardless is should be a decent storm for everyone along the I-64 corridor.
As stands, I think CB’s map may be too diagonal and the precip-type lines will be more horizontal than shown.
Regardless, it is probably going to get funky for a lot of folks, one way or another.
Can you post a link to that please? Thanks!!
here is the NAM snowfall map, and I would say it LINES UP VERY WELL with what chris has forecasted…especially the southern extent of the snowfall..
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
All I know is, they are mistaken. Thursday, you’ll see them headline their newscast with the destruction caused by this storm. Then we’ll see what the weathercasters have to say about it then.
Chris likes to do that, lol…I can’t remember a time he has given a “horizontal” map forecast for winter. But, I for one AGREE with you. I believe the mape should be adjusted to have anyone along and north of the I-64 corrider to be in line for the 2″-5″ first call (with those amounts to go higher, as the storm gets closer, and more of a grip on the cold air at surface levels, along with moisture streaming from the gulf).
come thursday, it will be fun to watch the Ky. webcams across the state…to see snow on ashland,pikeville…probably snow on lexington…a layer of snow/sleet/ice on richmond….a slight glaze on somerset…and FOG/rain on middlesboro…lol…
What time is this all supposed to start in the Lexington area?
WXman- what exactly is Lexington looking at here? Several students will be preparing to go home for break in the next 48 hours. Could we see huge problems?
WHICH ROOM??? THE LINK JUST GOES TO THE LOBBY…
Yes, this is getting a little redundant with the Louisville local MET’s downplaying every single system in terms of snowfall and or ICE/SLEET potential. It’s almost like they don’t use their brains, just sit and read what a computer spills out and says, yep, it’s right. The thing that seperates CB from these guys is he uses the data as a guide and then interperates with his noggen (brain, lol), to give us as informative of a forecast as he possibly can! and he does it for the entire state of KY. These guys only have to focus on their viewing area. After Thursday, local MET’s 0for3, CB 3for3!
my maps will not show up … what is London/Corbin supposed to get ?
manchester (clay co.) is in ice storm, snow section, with some rain south..does machester likely fall in the rain category? anyone care to elaborate?
My question, Tim, is how exactly the snowfall we have here plays into temps for this area.
With as much as we received, surely we’ll still have snow on the ground when this system moves through, which would mean temps might be a few degrees colder than the models are currently showing. I think rain is going to end up being a lesser player in this… JMO.
Yeah, I couldn’t find the weather on either.
Good chance of light snow accumulations before changeover to sleet/freezing rain. CB’s map shows us in Ice Storm area.
Thanks for the update Chris. So for Clay County does that mean we are in the area for the storm to begin as snow then change to all ice. The other forecasters are given what looks like snow most of Wed night and then turn over to ice. I will go with Crhis’s forecast over the others. I hope the temps stay cold and we get all SNOW!!!Does the next system for Mon. and Tues. look impressive? Thanks again, Chris. I can’t wait for the next update I hope it shows those temps are going to be colder.
Yeah Chris is my favorite meteorologist for sure, he seems to know best lol. We shall see the Louisville mets always seem to play it conservative for whatever reason. John Belski where are you at?
Great!! i was afraid someone was going to say that … i hate the sound of ICE!! thanks for letting me know.
Each model I have seen is showing less and less of just plain ole rain. CB even said the models are showing the warmer air getting here to quick. The Weather Channel even has us in Mix/Ice the whole time for Thursday.
Go to ‘list rooms.’ I started a chatroom called KYWeatherChat.
Anybody know? I have to be on the road a lot tomorrow and so does my son. Any help would be appreciated on the time.
Joe bastardi says 3-6″ from cincinatti to ashland to roanoke va. and then even down to va.beach?!! THEN…..come friday into the weekend a SNOWSTORM BREAKING OUT FROM I-40 in west tn. moving east then up the coast…SO..if that pans out…first storm snow for north and north east ky…then 2nd storm is snow from west ky. through southern ky and up which if it works out just right the entire state should have snow cover…will it work like that??? PROBABLY NOT!!! and i just refuse to discuss the “I” word…its too scary…
thanks! 🙂
Thanks for the update Chris. So for Clay County does that mean we are in the area for the storm to begin as snow then change to all ice. The other forecasters are given what looks like snow most of Wed night and then turn over to ice. I will go with Crhis’s forecast over the others. I hope the temps stay cold and we get all SNOW!!!Does the next system for Mon. and Tues. look impressive? Thanks again, Chris. I can’t wait for the next update I hope it shows those temps are going to be colder.
Just overheard somebody say in an elevator that they heard that temps would go above freezing on Thursday.
This is in Downtown Cincinnati.
It shouldn’t, but it amazes me how some folks are so misinformed when it comes to weather.
Late tomorrow night, I think!
Thanks for the update Chris. So for Clay County does that mean we are in the area for the storm to begin as snow then change to all ice. The other forecasters are given what looks like snow most of Wed night and then turn over to ice. I will go with Crhis’s forecast over the others. I hope the temps stay cold and we get all SNOW!!!Does the next system for Mon. and Tues. look impressive? Thanks again, Chris. I can’t wait for the next update I hope it shows those temps are going to be colder.
yea manchester will chahge to rain, but it will be rough tomm nite tgursday early morning with alot of ice.
I hope this 2nd one stays all snow and alot of it. haha
As for us Madison County folk, what are your thoughts?
I’m not really sure, but on CB’s map, it says PM to AM, so I would think in the afternoon/evening.
Sorry I couldn’t be of more help.
wonder how much rain we’ll get?
My best thought for those of you in Louisville and Southern Indiana is….root for the UK CATS!
sorry, couldn’t resist that. And sorry that I don’t have the needed expertise to answer your very legitimate question accurately. Too much time on my hands this afternoon.
Andy over at WAVE gets on my nerves. Brian is good, but remember..he came from doing weather in the south so he’ll have to get used to our weather here again (though he did grow up here). I just can’t believe how they are treating this like a non-issue. I think between midnight and 6:00 Thursday, we all get slammed.
Dang!
Another storm?? For real? I haven’t checked the blog or weather since I’ve been so busy. It does look the like weekend system is going to be way south of here, but not this one coming tomorrow/thurs. I guess we will see. One Day After Another
I’m not sure if you’re asking me or BubbaG. But, I think you guys could definetely be in line for a good ice storm. Maybe .5″ or more, with some snow to start out. 1″ or 2″. This will probably change as more data comes in this evening and overnight. It’s going to be a tough call, as Madison is right on that line IMO.
I have a sick feeling in my stomach reading about this ice storm. The last one knocked out our power for 8 days and totally trashed the trees. We couldn’t get off the farm for 3 days. I’m praying for plain cold rain.
Coffee are you in Middlesboro?
sunshine + snow = drip,,drip,,drip..
We lost power for 5 days got it back for about an hour and lost it again for 3 more days. When the electric co. put the transformers back up the power surge blew another one and we were without power for another 2 days…It was awful!!! We have animals…one being a reptile…
I live in Northern Scott Co…I can’t get the maps to pull up…what’s it looking like for us up here in Sadieville?
seen were someone asked this so I’ll ask again.Im in the 2-5 for snow and some ice.Will this be a wet snow or powder snow? 5 inches of wet snow that sticks to everything and a little ice would probably knock out the electric,so any thoughts of the type of snow it will be?
Since it’s borderline rain/snow/mix, I figure it will be wet, sloppy snow. I think your concerns are on the money.
Looks like you are under a winter storm watch here is the link click on and then click on the red and it will give you detail,I noticed it talked about Ice also.Hope this helps.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ030&warncounty=KYC111&firewxzone=KYZ030&local_place1=Louisville+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
here’s my local forecast from the NWS…it takes the temp. thursday into the MID 40’s !!..so take it with a grain of salt if you like…i would say that may happen
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 4am, then sleet between 4am and 5am, then freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Low around 29. South wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday: Rain or freezing rain, becoming all rain after 2pm. High near 43. South wind around 6 mph becoming west northwest. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Hey Tim what do you think we will get here in Knox Co. I am so dreading the sleet and ice. I am just concerned. Thanks.
thxs for the reply.Hopefully it will just snow a few inches..No fun being without power.
It will be a wet sloppy snow/sleet/ice storm…yuck is the only way to describe it…
i say bout 2 inches snow tomm nite changeing to sleet/freezing rain thru thurday morn, then maybe half inch rain . but latest models showing sanow might hang around longer than early thougfhts.
I agree we are sooooo lucky to have Chris.I am so luckly I get to still watch his weather on WSAZ.
Jim Caldwell is good too.I love Tony Cavalier also.
That is why Chris is the met to trust!!!
Just heard the “voice of reason” on the radio saying he expects snow to start flying around 6PM tomorrow.
Guess i’ll go and fill another 5 gallon can with gas for the generator,better safe than sorry.
my thoughts is it starts as snow/sleet then to freezing rain then to plain ole rain sometime thursday…NOW IF…we get any sunshine at all tomorrow temps. will spike up into the 30’s and if that happens it wont get very cold tomorrow night allowing for a quicker change to just plain ole rain early thursday…so we’ll just have to wait and see how tomorrow plays out…
So the net result is Louisville gets a load of ice, no power, and misses the next storm. Great. I love winter in Louisville.
I followed Belski all last year and he was always on the snow train. Brian and Kevin are just painting it like they see it via the models and what NWS discusses with them. They are currently predicting light snow amounts with light icing nothing major. I too feel that this could be a major storm, but only for the players who have significant snow pack. I can see blades of grass and all side roads are pretty much cleared in Metro Lou. Most of the snow is going to our north and east. Lexington and points to the south and east of Lex will get the major brunt of the snow and freezing rain.
Also, The local mets are 2 for 2 on there prediction over the past two storms for the Lou Metro area. CB is 2 for 2 on his for his region and our region. Keep up the great work CB I love this blog you do a great job of informing all of Kentucky with your forecasts.
moderation…lets try it again..lol..I would say its all gonna depend on if we get any sunshine tomorrow at all, if we do it will spike the temps. into the 30’s…if not it will stay colder for longer and leads to more snow/ice before it turns to plain ole rain on thursday…
prediction…. Power outage for a week or more due to upcoming ice/snow storm..Hope I have power for Christmas.
Brandon…I see NWS in Morristown Tn..has put their northern counties in tn. under a wsw now..here is what they are saying for the counties bordering us…
…ADDITIONAL ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING…
.A WARM FRONT…ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT…GENERATING PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE…THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS…AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE SUB FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH…AND
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…NORTHEAST TENNESSEE…AND THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
COMPLETELY OVER TO RAIN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
If you listen to the mets. in Louisville, you might be able to scrape up enough ice to put in your Coke. 🙂
UGH!
My current estimate for Lexington / Richmond is about 50% ice and 50% snow, at about the KY river on down it would get more ice.
Of course, who really knows? The common theme here is ice for all of KY and how far the cold are stays is the obvious big item here.
Too many dynamics here: Surface and aloft air temps. As CB stated, 1 to 2 degree differnce in the mix is HUGE.
LOL!!!!!!!!!! What are you thinking for this event wxman?
Here is Sadieville forecast with a winter storm watch just click below and click on the red winer storm watch.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Sadieville&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=38.3913&textField2=-84.5365&e=0
Winter Storm Watch just now issued for Campbell, Claiborne, Hancock, Grainger Co’s and all of Northeast Tenn.
Again this is for the tn. counties bordering ky….
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
* TIMING: PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LIGHT
SNOW…AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN…ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN CHANGE COMPLETELY OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
* ACCUMULATIONS: SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION…LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACTS: TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ALSO…THERE IS A THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED
TREES IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN.
…………………
I suspect ICE STORM WARNINGS will be issued for alot of folks…
well my guy already got me a generator if ur keeping track, he had one he s[potted out.
yea he got it in broad daylight, ive not went to get it yet. will waith till dark.
nothing like having thugs on the payroll.
Hey Rolo how many Generators can you get lol JUST KIDDING!!!!!! Looks like we all are going need one.I hope not.
Well, the NAM clearly shows almost .75″ QPF in Louisville. GFS not far behind. Not sure where in the world they are getting the quarter-inch estimates from, unless they can’t read maps. If the temp. stays below 32, this will be every bit as bad as 2003 or 2009.
Yea, I see that Andy (aka: the new Tom Wills) wouldn’t put my comment I sent in to the wave3 blog. But, I will share it with you guys:
We are all entitled to our opinions. But, I’m more in line with the thinking of Brian and Chris Bailey. I think we will NOT make it above 32. These models are notorious for trying to push the low level arctic air that is in place way too soon! This will not switch over to a rain event. I agree, we will get freezing rain. I just feel we will get a few inches of snow/sleet before it does, which will help cut down ice totals. ps- even with this being a fast mover, I think you may be underestimating the moisture coming in from the gulf. As Chris said “it should be plentiful” and we should see a “SIGNIFIGANT amount of ice and snow pushing into the region.”
I’m guessing these guys don’t like it when anyone mentions the name “Chris Bailey” lol..oh well.
Rolo I can see it now Film at 11.
Yeah!!! Nice way to stand up for what you believe in and for this blog!!!
I posted about this but it has never showed up on here. Oh well. lol..
So 1-3 inches of snow.
1/4 of Ice
Sleet
Then finally to all rain. lol…shew
That is exactly what I was thinking!! I mean where are they getting that? I mean everything is coming together for this. Snow pack, over riding warm air. This could be very, very bad. And also, I really think either winter storm warnings or ice storm warnings should be issued soon to get the public prepared.
Good luck convincing ANY of the guys in Louisville of this! They just said NO WAY is this an ’03 or ’09 event. They are very adamant about this. Plus Brian Goode just stuck up for “Tom Willis jr.” (aka: Andy whathisname) when Tim Allen questioned the same thing I pointed out earlier today on the previous posting from this morning, which was why are they on different pages with their forecasting. Anyway, bottom line is Louisville MET’s are flat out UNDERESTIMATING this storm. But, I wouldn’t expect anything less from any of them. Wow, do we all miss John Belski!
That sure sounds like ’03 or ’09 to me. Weird that just 3 hours ago, a certain TV met in Lex specifically said that it will NOT be like ’03 or ’09…
This one looks like trouble to me. Tomorrow morning will be a tense time.
And read this. This is from LMK’s latest forecast discussion.
SINCE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME SMALL SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS…WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
WINTRY MIX FROM SDF TO LEX ON SOUTH…AND AN ADVISORY NORTH SINCE
MAINLY ONLY EXPECTING SLEET/SNOW OVER NRN AREAS
They may also be downplaying this.
I hope no ice.
LOL Crystal you were reading my mind!! I guess Thursday won’t be a great day for travelin to Lexington…maybe I should make my appointment for -August-2011~~~ lol!!
Thank you…so not looking forward to this storm.
Honestly, it could be a situation where half of the metro (south) sees a ton of ice and the other half of the metro (north & east of I-64) sees several inches of snow/sleet. This is going to be very interesting to watch it all play out! Still, don’t you think by issuing a WSW but having our MET’s tell everyone it’s not going to be “that bad” is extremely contradicting? a WSW is usually bad…just saying, lol
LMK just issued a Winter Storm Warning for Louisville to Lexington and south. Snow is expected to fall, as well as sleet/freezing rain… hence the WSW instead of an Ice Storm Warning. Get ready.
Right there with on all of that. 🙂
NWS always wants to start low and then gradually increase expected severity if needed. They eat less crow this way, I guess, but they also cause people to be under-prepared. They’ll probably come around when the thing hits.
Doesn’t next NAM run in about an hour? It will be interesting to see.
just as I thought…NWS LMK just issued WSW for Louisville and points south of I-64, and a WWA for Louisville and points north of I-64. So, half the city could be a glaze and half could be a blanket of snow/sleet. Guess that saves the local MET’s, as they will get at least half the forecast right, lol (well, maybe not the precip “totals”, but, the precip “type” anyway)
Hey Chris…word is spreading around here like wild fire that the prediction is for up to 1.5 inches of ice for eastern Kentucky, including the Salyersville area…your forecast doesn’t reflect this…where are they getting this info from?
we can hope for more snow than ice…:)
I sure like this snowfall map from the gfs rather than the nam which are entirely different…
gfs..
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
I read Chris’s forecast, believe it, and then read other forecasts for a laugh. Thanks, Chris, for all you do. I know that I’m well informed when I read your forecasts and know how to plan for the days ahead.
Yup. They did thaat in ’09 when they didn’t even have the bluegrass region getting any ice. Then they had a quarter of an inch while freezing rain was falling. Then they came around, after a while.
Just spoke to WYMT and lets just say its going to get UGLY!! Major Ice Storm coming. Was told not to give much info until the news this eveing.
why does HPC not even have a lot of central ky in a 10% chance of freezing rain??? did they miss the last event too> when do they update?
I was told this map is taking into account through sunday, which adds the east coast w/k end storm Chris eluded to early in th a.m. So, that map is diluted. I think at this point we shouldn’t even look at these things, as they are all going to be off IMO! This storm will “overachieve”
I really hope those snow totals stick for Greenup/Boyd Counties. We’re like the red-headed stepchildren of Snow Town.
This storm may overachieve more than the last one.
We really do miss ol’ John. He was the best meteorologist Louisville had in my opinion. He wasn’t afraid to not be conservative. Now we have nothing in Louisville lol.
Latest HPC qpf chart shows .50-1.00 inches of precipitation for the event for far eastern Kentucky. If that is all ice, it will not be pretty.
WSW not posted on weather.gov or anywhere yet…weird?
What is going on with the NWS in Wilmington, oh? Are the northern counties of ky not going to be affected by this? From what i can see, Chris has us in the 2-5″ range yet we aren’t even under a watch! Anyone Have thoughts on what we can expect around mason county.
I know, thats what I’m saying… weird.
How come my area, between morehead & Ashland area is under a wwa rather then a wsw? I know we are under a different weather office but still. Rolo, WXMAN, what’s the forecast looking like for my area?
How are the roads in Sadieville? Are we going to have school tomorrow (I live in Georgetown)?
Are you Brandon from Middlesboro?? If so is it seeming like Harlan is gonna be in a mess too?? This whole thing has me tore up and I keep going back and forth between here and facebook checking for updates. I’m gonna be a crazy mess before it all gets here!
Newwave cable local weather in Somerset is saying 41 degrees for a high on Thursday. Any takers?
I like that too. 5-6 inches for me here in Middlesboro.
Any idea why this hasn’t shown up on their site?
WHERE ARE THE WARNINGS AT???? I KNOW THEY ARE ISSUED??? BUT I CAN’T FIND THEM!!!!!!!!!!!
Ditto. They don’t seem to be updating their maps yet…
I found them.
Check this link…I don’t know where you live, but you should be able to find your area. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
Where tornado?
Geez…Rolo, I hope you are just joking.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR AN ICE…SLEET AND SNOW MIXTURE…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE
OF SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM EST
THURSDAY…WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STARTING TO END
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS MOISTURE OUT TO THE
EAST.
* UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
FALL ON ALREADY SNOW COVERED GROUNDS…WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ONSET OF FREEZING RAIN. THE
RESULTING ICE AND SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION…A SIGNIFICANT COATING OF ICE ON POWER
LINES…TREES…AND OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE SURFACES IS LIKELY.
That quarter inch will likely increase.
Look like this is setting up a lot like the 1994 ice storm in Lexington. We had a snow cover and then sleet and freezing rain overnight. The next morning it looked like the moon outside. The snow had a brittle half inch layer of ice on top of it. The freezing rain continued into the night, and that was when all hell broke loose. The transformers blowing up made it look like that footage of the bombing of Baghdad at the start of the Gulf War.
At nws.noaa.gov
It still isn’t showing up on the warning map, but here is a graphic that shows the boundaries for the warning (from LMK).
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lmk
If it goes through The Weather Channel disregard that. They are ALWAYS warmer in the winter time. lol
shhhhhhh…!!!
Interesting that the JKL AFD had no mention of rain. Seems like it’s now going to be nothing but frozen precip.
Not it — Frankfort is all snow and sleet…hopefully I’ll still be able to stay home! =) Crossing fingers and hoping for no power outages for my friends south!!
Thank you both for your comments.
I think Chris will probably be updating before too long, looking at his latest Twitter comment. Then, you will see the updated map. Also, read the discussion from JKL, and it does say that it will upgrade to a WSWarning at forecast update. Should be any time..usually around 4:30 (or it was when I worked at the radio station.)
I kept the shhhhh part. lol
haha, Jim caught ya trying to give hints. Get’em Jim 😉
Thanks again for all you do to keep us informed!!!!
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2010
…ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY…
.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY…WITH WARM AIR OVERRIDING THE COLD
AIR AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SET
THAT STAGE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-114>118-150545-
/O.UPG.KJKL.WS.A.0004.101215T2300Z-101216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KJKL.WS.W.0007.101216T0200Z-101216T1500Z/
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
BELL-HARLAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…
LONDON…MONTICELLO…WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…
BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…BOONEVILLE…
HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG
435 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2010
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW…SLEET…AND FREEZING RAIN…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY…BUT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW…SLEET…AND FREEZING RAIN.
* THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE FROM FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. MOST LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP BETWEEN ONE QUARTER
AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS ROADWAYS BECOME ICY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR DOWNED LIMBS AND
POWER OUTAGES AS ICE ACCUMULATES ON TREES AND POWER LINES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW…SLEET…
AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS
Southeast KY is now under a Winter Storm Warning!!!
Half inch of ice? Yuck. Not good….
Rockcastle,Pulaski,Laurel,Jackson,Wayne, McCreary, Whitley, Knox, Bell, Harlan, Owsley, Perry, Clay, Leslie, Letcher switched to WS Warning
0z NAM runs at 8:45 this evening…18z GFS is currently running or just finishing as it started at 4:30…
The WSW and WWA match up very well with the map Chris posted above. Another great job by Chris.
Update from Lex18. Sounds like nothing major..Hmmmm!
http://www.lex18.com/news/a-winter-storm-warning-is-up-for-parts-of-kentucky/
Not looking good. 18z NAM looks basicaslly the same, half an inch across most oky, with cky seeing .75″ the 1″.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_072l.gif
They have to stick to their script- regardless of how proven silly it is 😉
If you think most mets are underestimating this system say “I”.
I know we are currently all interested in this WSW for the next couple of days, but has anyone ventured out to Christmas week and and couple days past. The GFS looks as though it has two big storms with the freezing line further south of Ky. Bring it on…..
WLEX down plays everything! They still have Eastern KY in the watch area.
I live 25minutes away from th NWS in wilmington they’re always very late on issuing advisories, warnings or anything of the such. expect it to come tonight into tomorrow sometime.
I
“I”
What do you expect? It is Bill Meck. And all he cares about is Lex anyway!
This sounds UGLY for southern and eastern KY. We already have 6 plus inches on the ground in London, now potentially adding a couple inches of snow plus ice. And getting lost in all this, a major storm is forecast to pull out of the south and up the east coast this weekend. Round 3??
“I”
so the line cuts right across fayette co. how much of what are we going to get? in 2009 my power was out for 9 days. i reeeeeally do not want a repeat. this stuff has me all tied up in knots.
thank you, Chris, (and all you other mets out there) for keeping us informed of what is really going to happen.
i am a total stooge when it comes to reading any of the graphs, but i find it all facinating.
Yeah Chris is on!
The GFS shows 5-6 inches for Bell Co for the weekend Storm.
okay? russ what storm you talking about? the eastcoast? next weekend or this weekend…give me some details.
“I”
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I hope Chris updates us very soon. I wish this was a ALL snow event for Southeast Ky. I do not want the ice. I hope these system for the weekend brings us a setup throughout the week for a white Christmas.
Chris has a new post!!!
The big difference with this storm is that this is just a wave of low pressure and will be moving rather quickly through here. It won’t stick around long enough to become a storm to remember.
do you foresee a ice storm warning, and when?