Good Tuesday morning… again. After writing my original update… I stayed up to get a better look at some of the newer computer model runs and decided it was time to upgrade to a WINTER STORM ALERT for late Wednesday through Friday morning for the entire state. We will likely be facing significant amounts of snow and ice accumulation during this time.

After reviewing all the data… I am strongly leaning toward a fairly moisture laden event that can yield a lot of ice and snow to a lot of people. This could turn into a dangerous storm before all is said and done. I will try to nail down the specifics of how much snow and ice will fall and where with an update early this afternoon.

As I type this I see the NWS offices are sticking out Winter Storm Watches across much of the state for this storm.

My prior update goes as follows…

We have a lot of action on the table for the next few days as we shift into Winter Storm ALERT mode from late Wednesday through early Friday. I will talk more about that in a bit.

Before that… baby, it’s cold outside. Temps this morning will start out in the single digits and I fully expect some areas to go below zero… especially the western half of the state where skies will be clear. This is some serious cold for anytime of the year… especially in the middle of December.

Watch the lows and temps here…

Low Temps


Current Temps


Highs today will be near 20 in the north and east and low to mid 20s in the west.

There is still likely to be a plume of snow showers and flurries out there for the eastern half of the state… especially early. Some of these early can lay down some very light accumulations leading to more slick spots this morning. Track the remaining flakes here…



Our main focus is now on the Winter Storm ALERT for late Wednesday through early Friday. This is NOT going to be a big storm by low pressure standards. This will be a weak wave of low pressure crossing the Tennessee Valley Thursday that will throw overrunning moisture northward into our region. We will still have low level arctic cold air in place as a layer of slightly warmer and moist air moves in. This will produce a swath of snow and freezing rain into the region.

I continue to maintain the models will try to scour out the low level cold air much too quickly. Here is how the GFS sees this playing out…



Looking ahead to the weekend… many of the models have been pointing toward a big storm rolling out of the deep south and up the east coast. The GFS has actually been the most bullish in showing this…

Saturday Morning


Saturday Evening


Saturday Night


We shall see if the seasonal trend of storms to wrap up farther north and west comes into play with this one.

I will have another update on the snow and ice threat for the next few days coming later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.