Thanks Chris
Thanks Chris
I wonder if chris is using the 12z runs or the 18z runs. The last look I took at the nam 18z it had a higher snow accumulation.
hey..bengals set a record yesterday for their history..10 losses in a row….lets see if ky can get at least half that number in winter storms in a row!!! side note suprised madison co. is off tomorrow..didnt think roads were that bad
Maybe some of you posters can help me with this question? CB thinks the models are to warm for the northern areas. If so what does that mean as far as precipitation? Will it just be snow? I am in Oldham County the tiny blue spot on the NAM Wednesday 12 Hour Snowfall map above…
the models are trying to figure more rain and ice than CB thinks there will be
well andy get a good snowe then a flood, we will see nothing but rain.
HPC is showing .50 to .75 qpf for the event. If that is all ice, we’re gonna have a problem. Not a February, 2003 problem, but perhaps a January, 2009 problem.
Both the 18Z NAM and GFS bring the 546 line 40-50 miles north of Louisville. They are cooler, but by how much I don’t know.
One thing to remember is this the 18Z is an off hour run. DT at wxrisk says to disregard these runs. Well, not totally, but he doesn’t put a lot of weight into them.
i’m glad we have somebody to disagree with what CB is saying
Just Say NO! to Ice.
Some stats from Lawrenceburg:
Avg. monthly temp 26.4 degrees
Snowfall 7.20 inches
WOW. What a showstopper this month has been! Unparalleled since 1989.
what a way to RUIN a good snowcover!!!.BLAH!!
Exactly. If you take the models at face value for the past 3 days, we’ve got BIG problems coming up Thursday morning. This shouldn’t be downplayed at all right now until something shows otherwise.
…MIXED WINTERY PRECIPITATION LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE…WITH WARMING AIR OVERRIDING THE COLD AIR AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY…BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW…
SLEET…FREEZING RAIN…AND RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MINOR ICING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING…WITH
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE…WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY…AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN…1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ANY CHANGES IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY AFFECT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS WHERE SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION TYPES SET UP. PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
In my opinion, most of the models are going too warm with this system.
still getting snow here in knox co..actually got another good coating since around 6 or so…to be washed away by the slop headed this way wed./thursday…:(
Snow still falling in Pikeville with wind gusts.No Ice please.
18Z is an off hour run. What does that mean?
the 18z runs of the gfs and nam bring a swath of snow/ice north east from central tn. north east through central and east ky…what ends up being ice is yet a mystery but they both are spitting out at least a couple inches before it turns to slop…
agreed…plus, I would much rather have 10″ of snow than 2″ of ICE. We played that game almost 2 years ago, and it was horrible! Hoping for the white stuff ONLY!!
oh yeah, I am right there with you. ice is much more dangerous than snow.
Yell, I get the gist of what the models are forecasting my only question is why have an 18z or 6z run if the experts consider those times basically garbage hoops.
Here is the way this type of storm has played out in the lou. area for the last couple of years. Starts out snow for four to five hours, then the mixing starts,changes into fz rain,and ends with non frozen drizzle. But up the road about 35 miles it stays frozen through the entire event.
Anyway we will have to wait for the 0z models to come out,the nam starts posting around 21:30
naaaaaaaaaaaaa not gonna happen my friend
Wxman, where do you live in lburg? Just curious,.. I never post on here, buy glad to lburg has a met.
Yes! Just great! I live in ice city down here in Berea! Sounds like this might just be great! (Sarcasm)Im sure well be right in the middle of it……Is it okay to whine on the blog, when ICE is in the forecast??
Ok, so assuming that the actual temps will be lower, this means all snow, right? So if the nam is already showing 2 inches of snow in the Prospect area, how high do you guys think this total will rise?
Why do they run it at these times? I don’t know. To fill space I suppose. A best guess is better than nothing at all.
Also, research has shown the 18Z run to be the worst one of all. The 00Z and 12Z runs, which use actual upper air data, are much better.
Can’t say. Too many haters on here. Might be dangerous. 🙂 lol
yes. Blog police won’t arrest you for that…LOL
it has been snowing ever since 5 30 here in london and coming down at a good clip. got between a half and a full inch but as usual chris bailey is the only one that said we could get more accumulation. the snow looks like it is enhancing on radars right now to me
My totals so far in December ’10…
NW Lexington, Masterson Station…
1st storm 3.5″ of snow
2nd storm 4.0″ of snow
So, as of December 13th, 2010, I have recorded 7.5″ of snow on my back deck..!
Folks, that is impressive…
It has to do with the information added to the model. I don not believe new data is added.
lol
I think the mets at wave are going with the colder solution in Lou. They like the majority of the storm to be snow with some sleet mixed in on Thurs.
Not hearing anything on this upcoming weekend storm. Too far away or not there anymore?
Has the new data from th 0z nam been posted. Please give me the link or tell me has there been any changees from the 12z. I AM LITTLE IMPATIENT HAVE TO GO TO WORK IN ABOUT 7 MIN.
bill meck sure has missed the actually totals that fell in this storm, had london in 2-5 inch range and we ended up having around 7-8. i guess he is covering hisself up cause he missed his forecast so bad, and there was also a larger nad of the 6-12 than he had, where did he get his info.
122 gfs ensembles had it for sat into sun.
Good evening, fellow weather fans. Frome reading the posts, it seemsasif the majority of us got a decent snow (or are still getting it) out of the just finishing storm. We have already had more this winter than we got for the past several. Vinny, that IS impressive, indeed! 😉
Do not like hearing the “I”word being thrown around, but it is being, by several sources. Wxman, I agree with you….do NOT downplay this until we know it will not be ice. As it is, roads will be a skating rink in the morning, so everyone pleaase be very careful when you get out to go to work.
Chris, can’t wait to hear a more in depth analysis of the Weds/Thurs system.
Then I will know how to plan.
I do have to correct one poster on the last post…WKYT was on board with snow totals that were pretty close to what Chris predicted. They were the only ones that I saw in central KY that were, though. Kudos to CB for being two for two this early on in the winter season!
East Frankfort Snow stats for December, Thanksgiving 1 in.
Dec. 1st .75
Dec. 4th 5.0in.
Dec 12-13th 4.0
10.75 tot WOW!
Winter of 77-78 Did not have that much in December. That winter totals 45-50in.(record)
(p.s snow dome RIP!)
Ice,Ice,Baby…….
Hope not.
Dec 5th-6th 2.5 inches
Dec 12th-13th 8.5 inches
Total: 11 inches for Middlesboro.
Im keeping totals for my area myself. I do it every year. Actually fun to do. My inlaws in Pineville got 14 inches just off this storm today and yesterday. LOL…
nice : )
It has been lightly snowing here in Berea. Enough to over the cars and road with another light dusting. Be safe out there 🙂
still coming down in Knox Co.very fine but it hasn’t stopped for more than a few minutes all day.We probably have close to 10 inches or more.Please be careful if you have to be out.
the craziest thing happening…when the rain turned to snow early sunday morning the ground was soggy wet..the snow fell, then temps. fell..so the snow has been acting as a blanket and the ground is NOT FROZE underneath(grassy areas) as cold as it has been, and I have noticed through the day some snow Melt from the bottom up..instead of the top down…thats just crazy…
to whomever was on the chat last night, hearing about me studying for my bio final. I manage to get a 96, while it was snowing? thats crazy! determination( to not be staring at the snow, and study). lol
This morning we had 9 inches and tonight it is snowing just as hard I wonder what we will end up with! I think here in perry county we have a shot at 12 inches
Thanks Mitch.
The local met is raising the possibility of an all Thursday / all rain event? I wonder what Chris is thinking?
With the nam already showing 2″ of snow for Prospect and the CB forecast for the air being cooler than the models indicate, how much snow do you think can fall across the area?
GFS & NAM has the freeze line plenty north for the next event. However, the low pressure is not a strong one. Just not going to bring in enough warm air in to move out the low level cold and overriding moisture could bring ice to some of us. I don’t want to put words in Chris’s mouth but I would venture to say this is his thinking.
BTW… 100% agree with CB on this!!!
Here is the Nam 00z snowfall map…it does show some snow…however southern,ky will change to frz rain and plain rain and wash most of this away.
Still snowing in Lex!!! This pattern is impressive to say the least. I Love it! Everyone be careful tonight roads in Lexington are bad as of 11pm. Lexington and some surronding counties should be under a snow advisory.
have to disagree with you, far southern ky may change to rain but the majority of the moisture will be out before the transition to all rain. plus models trended colder and more south
Lincoln,talked with you awhile last night.Congrats on doing so good! Yes that was great determination.
It’ll snow for a while in southern KY…then sleet and frz rain for a while..then end as rain/drizzle….sloppy mess.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=24&field=acctype
Click 45-69 hours out. Accumulating ice bottom right corner.
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