Good evening everyone. I am dropping by for a quick update on the evening snows across eastern Kentucky and for the Winter Storm Threat for Wednesday and Thursday. Let’s get to the short term first.

Snow showers and squalls will continue into the evening and likely overnight across eastern Kentucky with a higher emphasis on southeastern Kentucky. Northwesterly winds will create a nice upslope flow into the mountains tonight. While the snows will gradually taper off later… additional accumulations will be a good bet for much of this region. Some spots across southeastern Kentucky picked up nearly 12 inches of snow over the past few days. Additional accumulations of around an inch for many with up to 3 inches in the higher elevations. Track the snows here…



A snow shower can still be noted back into central Kentucky this evening. As the sun sets… roads will ice over once again and passing snow showers can drop enough to cover roads again in some spots.

Temps tonight will drop into the single digits and some areas may approach zero in the traditional cold spots. Gusty winds will make it feel like our temps are below zero at times.

Looking ahead to our Winter Storm Threat. A wave of low pressure will develop to our southwest early Wednesday and roll eastward through the Tennessee Valley through Thursday. Overrunning moisture will stream into the state during this time. This will create a mix of snow and ice for much of the commonwealth with a chance for some rain for a period across the south. Everybody will see wintry weather with this… the question is who gets what and how much? We will fine tune that over with future updates. Let me continue to pound home the fact that the computer models are very likely to be too warm with this event. I have seen many situations like this in the past and the bias of the models is to attempt to scour out the low level cold air. Given this is not a very strong system… I am having a very hard time seeing the cold give up. Now… its not like the models are warm by any means. But when you are taking about temps at 29 or 30 verses readings of 32 or 33 degrees… it has a big impact on the type of precipitation.

The threat of ice is a real one for many counties across the state. I don’t know exactly where that will set up… but here is where the models think…



The NAM snowfall numbers…


Again… my thinking is the models are too warm too far north.. at least my a few degrees. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm as an upgrade to alert status is possible tonight or early Tuesday.

Have a great evening and take care.