Good Monday to one and all. Let me start out by saying a heartfelt thanks for all the reports you guys gave us over the weekend. You are the engine that drives this blog and I am glad you appreciate the time and effort I put into doing this. You guys rock and may get quite the workout over the next few weeks as we have a lot more action coming our way.
I am very happy with the weekend snow forecast we put out several days in advance. While I didn’t hit every spot exactly how I wanted… the overall outcome is one I can live with. That said… snows will continue to fall today across parts of central and eastern Kentucky and should add to the totals. The wild card in all this is trying to pinpoint exactly where the Lake Michigan snow streamer sets up across the region. There can be a narrow area of some decent snows within this band and we will watch the radar today to see who gets lucky.
Upslope snows will continue across southeastern Kentucky into the overnight hours. It is this part of the state where another few inches can fall. The higher elevations will pick up several more inches before all is said and done.
Roads today are going to be snow covered in many areas. Throw in blowing snow and travel is not recommended until road crews can get the upper hand on the situation. They will be hampered by the very cold temps today as highs hang out in the high teens and low 20s. Wind chill values will be zero or below at times.
Here are some temp and snow tracking toys…
Some snow showers and flurries may still be around for parts of the region into Tuesday as we start out our day with lows in the single digits and end it with highs in the upper teens and low 20s.
That bring us to Wednesday and the start of a period we have already upgraded to a Winter Storm Threat. The threat level simply means I am seeing enough potential to raise the awareness level days in advance. It does not mean it will become a winter storm… but has a pretty good chance. The situation for Wednesday through Friday morning is especially worth the upgrade because of the potential for ice to go along with snow. A fairly weak low pressure is expected to roll eastward across the lower Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will throw moisture into the region which is likely to fall into low level arctic cold air. How deep the cold air is will determine the type of precipitation you will get where you live. It is my experience in these situations the models always underestimate the amount of cold air and that is something to watch for.
The NAM shows the potential we are talking about…
The model only goes out into the start of the threat period as more wintry weather would be with us Thursday into Friday. This is something we will be watching closely and have many more updates on.
The pattern remains incredibly wintry through the coming weekend into Christmas week. As a matter of fact… this pattern is likely locked in until sometime in January. Many of the models have also been hinting at a big storm riding up the east coast of the US late weekend into early next week.
GFS Saturday Night
This has been nothing short of an incredible first half of December and it shows no signs of letting up for the second part of the month. Anyone complaining about lack of cold and snow is delusional.
I will have updates as needed today. Keep an eye on that Lake Michigan streamer… my gut says it may surprise a few folks. Have a good Monday and take care.