Good Monday, folks. We’re getting set to close out October on a busy note with showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds taking center stage. This looks to make for some nasty conditions for the kiddos making candy rounds on Halloween.
Some of those showers will start today as a disturbance to our south throws some juice our way. The greatest threat for rain will be across the southern and eastern parts of the state. Here’s regional radar…
The threat for scattered showers and storms will be with us Tuesday into Wednesday as milder air fights in from the southwest. Winds will begin to gust up as temps make a run at 70 for some. All of this is ahead of a strong storm system working from the plains toward the Great Lakes. This drags a cold front in here with widespread showers and thunderstorms for Halloween…
Gusty winds may approach 40mph to go along with all the rain. Can we get a strong storm or two to develop? That’s a possibility, but most of that looks to be to our southwest. I’ll keep an eye on it.
Leftover showers get out of here early Friday as temps come way down compared to the middle of the week. Another shot of cold air surges in on Saturday. The European Model is still trying to spit out a mixed shower…
We’ll see how that works out, but I am nowhere near as confident as I was with the flakes of last week.
That’s how we start out November. What happens after that? This looks to be a pretty active pattern taking shape for the first couple of weeks of the month. This should feature a lot of back and forth in temps and should also give us several storms systems to track. Almost all Novembers see temps hitting 70 degrees and I expect this one to be no different early on.
Have a great day and take care.
If im not mistaken November is the Ohio Valley mini severe weather month. A month of huge transitions can have highs in the 70’s with severe storms and on the flip side of the coin highs in the 30’s with snow. I call it the bi-polar month.
Our area does indeed have a secondary severe wx season this time of year. November 2005 is a particularly notable example with the F4 twister at Madisonville KY and the deadly F3 at that trailer park near Evansville IN.
So, a good reason to review severe wx/tornado safety rules.
Clouds holding tough in Frankfort area so far, don’t know if those mid 60s will make it here today??
Of course, perfect timing.
Just when trees in north central TN – including Nashville – and south central KY are about to reach peak colors, the possible severe wx on Thursday could blow many of the leaves down 😉 .
Anyway, looks like strong damaging winds will be the main issue along with very heavy rain on Thursday. Perhaps an isolated twister or two. The Storm Prediction Center was previously holding back until the models came into better agreement, but SPC is now targeting western areas of KY and TN for severe wx on Thursday.
Louisville has a very good shot at making the wettest October on record. So far 7.86 inches have fallen, mainly from the Oct. 5 flooding event. All that is needed is 0.99 inches to tie record and exactly 1 inch or more to be the wettest October on record which is 8.85 set in 2007.
All the more remarkable considering October is normally the driest month of the year for our area.
One might think that tropical systems from the Gulf would be responsible for wet Octobers in our locale. But this has been a relatively inactive tropical season as well.
Thick fog starting to form in Nashville. NWS offices in both Nashville and Louisville have issued Dense Fog Advisories for most of central Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Please use caution tonight and also during the morning drive to work/school.
the seasons are just like us, Chris….can’t seem to make up their minds! 😉 Oh well, we had a gloomy and rainy sort of day here, and it looks like that is what we can expect for the rest of the week. thanks for the update, and for all you do. Have a great rest of the day, everyone!