Good Wednesday one and all. Our Halloween storm system is on track to deliver some nasty weather to the entire region. High wind, heavy rain and the threat for strong and severe storms will be with us. That is bad news for the kiddos looking forward to making those candy rounds.
We have showers and storms to go through before we get to Halloween. Scattered stuff is out there today as a warm front lifts northward across the state. Here’s regional radar…
This looks to be another day of a big temp spread from north to south. Areas in the south may hit 70 or a little better, to the north, temps may struggle into the low and mid 60s. Winds will begin to gust up as the day wears on.
The main show arrives on Thursday as a cold front works in from the west. Your breakdown goes like this:
– Scattered showers and storms will be possible early in the day.
– A wall of rain and thunderstorms will work into western Ky early in the morning and reach eastern Ky by evening.
– Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ will be possible for some areas.
– Damaging Winds will be the main threat from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Gusts of 40-50mph will be possible. This could pose some significant issues before all is said and done.
– We also have the threat for severe thunderstorms. This isn’t your typical setup for severe weather like you would see in the spring or summer. Winds just off the surface will be screaming and it won’t take much to transport that down to where we live. Thunder and lightning may not be terrible impressive, but the showers and storms can still produce damaging wind gusts.
– The NAM has been showing the potential for a isolated tornado spin up across western Kentucky. The GFS is not as aggressive in showing this spin up threat, but it certainly bears watching.
Here’s the latest on the severe threat from the Storm Prediction Center…
Leftover showers and wind will give way to some afternoon sunshine on Friday. Another cold front arrives Saturday with gusty winds and a few showers. Much colder air comes in behind this for Saturday night and Sunday. Can we get a flake in the mountains? Maybe.
Another potent storm works our way by the middle of next week as our up and down pattern kicks into high gear. November looks like a very active month. This is the type of pattern that can deliver a winter system before the month is over.
Have a great day and take care.
I would rather save the winter systems for january and February when the temp just might cooperate for a change.
For Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center’s “Total Severe Probability” map is now showing a 30% probability (up from the previous 15%) for areas like Louisville, Nashville, Murray, Paducah, Memphis. But places like Lexington, Somerset as well as TN’s Cumberland Plateau are on the edge, so these locales are not quite out of the woods.
As CB touched on, there’s a bit of a risk for a twister or two. Hopefully, this tornado threat will be low in future SPC updates as we get closer to Thursday.
Louisville has broken there all time wettest October on record. Thanks to the rain last night and this morning close to 1.5 inches of rain has occurred in the Louisville area. More on the way tomorrow.
1.1 inches of rain in east Frankfort last nite, much needed!
Is the tornado threat for tomorrow getting better or worse?
It’s a minor risk.
Thank you !
Although it is a minor risk, do not let your guard down.
Gusty winds are starting in Frankfort, Baten down the hatches