Good Monday, folks. The first full week of November is off and running and we have a cold front ready to blow into town for the middle of the week. While the overall pattern is filled with ups and downs… the air doesn’t look to stray too far from seasonal.
High temps today will be well into the 50s and we have a nice looking day. Tuesday looks even better with some low 60s with sunshine. This will be good for all the leaf peepers to get out and take in some of the late fall colors.
Changes blow our way on Wednesday as a strong cold front moves in. Winds and clouds will increase and a line of showers and thunderstorms will push into western Kentucky by the end of the day. Highs will approach the middle 60s for many.
That front slams eastward Wednesday night and Thursday morning…
Much colder air sweeps in behind that front as temps drop 20 degrees in just a few hours…
That will keep our temps in the middle 40s for highs Thursday and set us up for 20s by Friday morning…
The weekend looks to see more in the way of nice weather… even as another trough impacts the region…
That will take most of the moisture to our north, but will keep our temps in the seasonal range.
This is a pretty telling setup we have right now. The NAO and AO are both positive and the PNA is negative. That trio would normally send our temps to well above normal readings. The Pacific is keeping that from happening. The EPO continues to run negative and that is negating much of the impact from the other signals.
Have a great Monday and take care.
What is the EPO? That is one I have not heard of. It is unusual for us to be running below normal in temps with the AO, NAO positive and PNA negative.
Here’s a good example of the EPO…There’s also a WPO…
The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is the upper wind flow over the Eastern Pacific influenced by the ocean. When in a positive phase, the EPO generally is reflected by dominant stronger zonal flow and/or troughing along the West Coast of the U.S. This combination, in turn, tends to funnel milder Pacific air well inland into the country and thus, limits arctic outbreaks by holding them at bay up in Canada. When the EPO is dominated by a negative phase (as with the NAO), more ridging develops along the West Coast as higher pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska south along the West Coast of Canada (opposite of the positive phase). This, in turn, encourages a northwesterly flow from Canada into the middle and eastern sections of the US and thus, the delivery of polar or arctic air. .
So i guess a -NAO..-AO…-EPO…+PNA would make for a glorious winter..But in the end who really knows what will make or break a decent winter..
Mostly sunny today?
I guess it’s possible – but looking at the satellite at 638 am, it sure doesn’t look like it’s going to be mostly sunny……..I guess the sun could burn some off. I dunno..
Chris Mercer, EPO is East Pacific Oscillation.
Watching the weather less channel last nite and they now say the eastern and southern US will be warmer than normal for Nov, after a couple weeks ago they said it would be much colder than normal, flip flopped Foresure?
I’ll take the cold and snow in December anyway 🙂
So, talking seasonal temps on Saturday, what do you mean? Are we looking at 50s of 60s or what? Going to the last home game of the season for Lindsey Wilson, and need to know how to dress.
Otherwise, sounds like another interesting week coming up. Are we looking at the same type of set up as last week? I thought I heard someone say not as bad, but just curious. Thanks Chris, for all you do. Have a great Monday, everyone!
Solar activity was crazy active in October. This means we could see more warmth this winter like 2011-12. I don’t think things are lookin too good for a promising winter now. Any similarities to two years ago is just favorable moving forward. :/
Solar activity was crazy active in October. This means we could see more warmth this winter like 2011-12. I don’t think things are lookin too good for a promising winter now. Any similarities to two years ago is just favorable moving forward. :/