Good Saturday, everyone. The final weekend of August is off and running on a pretty good weather note, but that’s about to change. A much different pattern sets up for the week ahead as some late summer sizzle takes control.

Today is pretty nice all things considered with Sunday showing a bit more of the summer flex. That flex really kicks into high gear on the final day of August turns very toasty with that continuing into the first few days of September.

Here’s a look at what to expect…

There’s the chance we can squeeze out an isolated shower or thunderstorm during this time, but much of the period looks dry.

The pattern changes by the end of the week into Labor Day Weekend with a series of systems dropping in from the northwest, bringing the potential for showers and storms. This animation runs from Thursday evening through the following Wednesday…

The GFS Super Ensembles continue to spit out “best match” analog years for early September that aren’t what we expect with a developing Super El Nino. 2005 continues to lead the pack for the pattern centered on September 5th…

And centered on September 8th…

Only 1 of the years showing up on those maps are from an El Nino year and that’s 1951, which was a moderate and not even close to Super status. As a matter of fact, the majority of the years listed are La Nina years.

2005 keeps showing up as the top analog. That was the busiest hurricane season on record (Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc.), so we need to watch for the possibility of something trying to impact the US during this time.

Dolly has already fizzled out, but what’s left of this storm continues west…

cone graphic

The models continue to suggest Dolly could redevelop next week as it rolls through the Caribbean toward the Gulf…

CANADIAN

GFS

The 2005 analog showing up for early September may very well have some validity.

Have a sensational Saturday and take care.