Good evening gang. Will tonight be the night we pull the trigger on Winter Storm Threat Mode? I want to get a good look at what the new computer models are suggesting before making that call. The real question is… who, among our blog regulars, would you nominate to line up like the people in the pic as our representatives to pull the trigger?
This should be interesting! 
As far as the actual weather goes… the operation GFS with the 18z run went even farther east but looks to have some issues. The GFS Ensembles, however, look about as steady as a model can look…
I will have a full update tonight and may tweet some thoughts one each model that rolls in. Until then… let me hear who you think should be on the front line in pulling the trigger. Keep it nice as the blog police will be watching. 
I leave you with this…
Select Page
I should light the snow cannon!
Chris, I have to nominate Wxman, and Mitch to pull the trigger….they are always insightful, and interesting, just as you are. Of course, when it comes down to it, since you are the “da Man,” it ultimately comes down to being YOU who does that….so maybe I am nominating you instead, with Wxman and Mitch as your ‘seconds.’ 😉
so? with this new model showing up…what does it look like for southeastern kentucky to get? as far as snow? snow to change after saturday night..I’m not a big weather expert.
I have been reading and analyzing this storm all week, this is my first post for this storm. I would love to pull the trigger man oh man oh man would I…….I’ll be heading home from the University of Rio Grande this week.I live closer to Columbus ohio, looks like I may have a better shot at actually getting some heavy snow at home…….
I don’t post often but wanted to cast my vote on who should pull the trigger on this thing!!! I nominate Wxman, Mitch and Rolo!!!
Everyone I know is reading your blog!! We wanna see some BIG snow : )
OMG!! The suspense is KILLING me!!
I want BIG snow some much.
The mascot got on some good HUEY weed from eastern kentucky!
Well….if you can’t nominate yourself without tooting your own horn….(which sometime sounds quite weak,) I would vote for Mitch, WXman, and MJ.
Although……hypothetically speaking, if it were up to me, I would wait to see what the model data started to show after the storm started materializing. There is plenty of real estate for this storm to cross before it begins impacting this region.
Although I was pretty spot on with the Mother’s Day severe weather outbreak (was that 2 years ago?) and the last big ice storm we had (and that one was a real limb-walker,) I’ve also had numerous busts.
I’d “like” to, but know I’m nowhere near qualified, so that’s why those three listed above would be at the top of my “nominate” list.
I nominate -mitch, Wxman-and of course ROLO….
and i love the Mascot….
Take my last two finals tomorrow-I say bring on the snow..
I just want Chris to pull the trigger….
i want to fire the cannon cause i am the blogs biggest snow lover
That’s a point that could easily be argued, Tommy. 🙂 lol
ROLO has to pull the trigger! Wxman and Mitch need to be there to keep him (and his goat!) in line, though! LOL!
Chris, i say the grinch!!!!
My vote is for Mr. SNOW Miser, ROLO or Shane!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yon2YuXssvo
I nominate Rolo to pull the trigger…
Well i havent posted in along time but i think ROLO should pull this trigger..
Chris I trust you to pull the trigger when ready….I check in often with the blog and trust your forecasts year round although this time of year is my favorite so hopefully you’ll do the honors SOON!! WE WANT SNOW!!!!!
My vote goes for tommy. If he needs help then I choose coffeelady
Ya know what is amazing is that the local guys are so MIA and behind the curve. I watched a couple of the local forecasts and checked the local channel websites and they were like a couple days old! Pathetic if ya ask me! Talk about asleep at the switch. Thats why this site rocks! It is like about the only viable place to find up to date wheather info and dialogue.! Just my take!
W.W.
I have been reading and analyzing this storm all week, this is my first post for this storm. I would love to pull the trigger man oh man oh man would I…….I’ll be heading home from the University of Rio Grande this week.I live closer to Columbus ohio, looks like I may have a better shot at actually getting some heavy snow at home…….
we got that the 1st time 😉
I would love to pull the trigger, but my vote is for Mitch.
I don’t care who pulls the trigger, as long as they hit the snow bullseye. Seriously though, I hope Chris sees enough in the next runs to add FIRE! to his last post title.
The only trigger I am going to pull is to my head for getting all excited about the potential of a major winter storm. I prevent myself from getting all geeked up over computer models that are over 72 hours out from the beginning of the event.
With that said, has the 0z runs from the gfs & nam been posted over cyber net.
not me andy i am a little slower than the average blogger 🙂
I’m wondering the same thing. I have no clue what these maps mean!
It has been so long since I’ve been talking on here, I don’t even know if Im registered to vote anymore. 😀
But I’d add two to the list: coffeelady and Tommy.
Coffeelady, well because she has a great name. Besides that she has to be one of the kindest bloggers on here.
Tommy, because if I recall last winter, the snow seemed to follow him. And he gets downright giddy when we get a good one. I won’t say he is the biggest snow fan because I don’t want a fight. 🙂
How much will letcher co get.
Oh, and you didnt ask this. But they can aim it at whoever said the I-word.
0z NAM coming out now.
SE KY will do great Sunday night through Tuesday with the snow showers…. 🙂
I would vote for Rolo because he’s from my home town of Clay Co. and also I would like to tell you that my niece Sam Roark’s new single “The Sound Of A Woman Saying Goodbye” has moved up to No.61 on NMW Country Charts this week. Check her out at samroark.com and thanks Chris for all you do for all us weather lovers and Go Big Blue !!!!!!
Does it show where the low is going to track?
It’s only gotten to the Friday evening time frame so far. The Sat-sun time frame will be out in a bit. Will try to look at it.
Careful! The gunpowder pack may be a little wet 😉
Seems it will take a mega-chunga shift (and moisture not push out due to the shift) to be snow for Saturday , so either CB has turned a tad masochistic building folks hopes up, or he sees something my little brain can not put together (he is the met, so probably the latter). This assumes of course CB is referring to Saturday. Seems cold rain for the main moisture flow and then perhaps snow early Sunday morning.
Or, is CB really referring to more than expected snow for Sunday & Monday (mega wraparound?)?
Still suggest north KY has the best chance for Saturday and east KY for the most white stuff through Monday.
As much as I want a big winter storm, I’m feeling heavy rain on saturday with a couple inches of snow on sunday with east ky getting lake effect as well. It seems like the I 70 corridor in indiana might be the best spot. Here is to hoping ky gets the brunt of this one!
I am going to have to vote for rolo too. I just love reading his posts. Wxman is a close second. Had to change my name. To many Snowlover’s on here. Been reading and posting for a long time and I really hope the trigger gets pulled. Thanks Chris,as always you keep us pumped.
Thanks, I will read your reply early in the morning, Unfortunately I am off to work.
Almost forgot, GO BLUE!!!!
ROLO, ROLO, ROLO !!! I still say this storm equals mainly a rain event cause I am just not seeing much convincing data for a snow event. Come on chris, please tell me we are gonna get some good snow.
lol i live in covington so we avg 23.4 i think or something like that
It has the low going north of the Ohio river and a change over from rain to snow Sunday afternoon. But thats just one run of the NAM. Will be watching for the 0z GFS, but most of all watching to see what Chris has to say. Hope he sees enough to pull the trigger.
Today’s XKCD is hilarious for weather lovers:
http://xkcd.com/831/
HEY PULL THE TRIGGER! It’s Christmas – all will be forgiven!
Love ya’ here in Woodford County, keep the updates coming!
Well friends it is all but certain, looking at rain changing to snow on the backside. 1-3 area wide, then east KY may get it on something special. But for most of us. 1-3
Nothing in life is certain but death and taxes. Do not live model to model run.
I vote for you and Coffeelady. The two of you are the nicest people on here.
I think Bill Meck should pull the trigger.lol
I would vote for Rolo because he’s from my home town of Clay Co. and also I would like to tell you that my niece Sam Roark’s new single “The Sound Of A Woman Saying Goodbye” has moved up to No.61 on NMW Country Charts this week. Check her out at samroark.com and thanks Chris for all you do for all us weather lovers and Go Big Blue !!!!!!
I posted on here last winder & some before that, and been keeping up with it constantly, and only post when I have a question or soemthing, But I really enjoy reading post from ppl such as, Tim, ROLO & MITCH. ID LOVE TO SEE THOSE # PULL THE TRIGGER & OF COURSE YOU CHRIS.. Im so thankful for all you do chris for everyone of us, and also for everyone on the blog for keeping me entertained & updaited on your thoughts on the weather. This is by far my most favorite blog ever!
Here is part of Jackson Discussion:
THESE LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION…AND
LOCALLY EAST KENTUCKY…IS IN FOR A POWERFUL WINTER STORM DEVELOPING
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND WHIPPING THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE
WINTERY WEATHER…SNOW…BITTER COLD…AND GUSTY WINDS…DESCRIBED
YESTERDAY APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY THE TIMING OF THESE IN THE GRIDS INCLUDING A SLOWER CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. ALSO…FINE
TUNED THE UPSLOPE CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS FROM
THIS STORM/S EVOLUTION AND PATH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE HWO AND
ALSO PLAN TO DRAW UP A WEATHER STORY TYPE GRAPHIC FOR THE FRONT PAGE
OF OUR INTERNET SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
Come on Chris. I have to go to bed soon. I don’t know if I can go to sleep without knowing you are thinking about the storm. I hope it misses us. I know that goes against the hopes of most on here but I really don’t want to miss school. Can we just hold it off until the next weekend then open up the snow gates?
Anyone seen the new 0z NAM model run? It is a horrible one for us in KY. Has the low way north of here with thunderstorms and very little snow. This is not good!
That is hilarious:)
yup the nam has defected to the lakes cutter track and joined forces with the euro, big blow for a snowstorm.
Fo all of Ky Mitch?
That’s ok i need to shop…..
YES!
Ok. Now I’m worried about whether it is going to snow any. We want snow!!!
Andy, Chris said keep it nice. have you ever heard of a computer glitch evidently not.
This storm is over! The new 0Z GFS is way north. That figures. The NAM and now the GFS all go north. We’ll have another shot soon here in KY.
it’s ready aim and fire for a lakes cutter.
Well the 00z gfs just jumped on board with the nam and euro with a northern track. Takes the low all the way up into Iowa. Hate to say it but this is starting to look like the storm last year around the same time. Looked like a big snow maker for us a week out then as it got closer went north all the way to Iowas and we got rain.
We are still a ways out…could the track move further south again?
Possible – Yes, likely – No
So will it be an all rain event now or is there still a chance for snow?
Well while its true that the models have gone north, the backside snow lingers for a while. But the arctic air can inflate snow totals. Maybe a 20:1 ratio is well within play. So a 1-3 general area, and 4-7 in the mountains is still not that far fetched.
0z GFS is rolling as is also coming in farther north than previous runs, but it’s less amplified and faster than the 0z NAM. Have to see if that trend continues in the next set of runs, but that does deal some damage to our chances for a “bigger” winter storm. 🙁
I do not think Mitch meant “big blow” in a good way. Perhaps “big WET blow” would be less ambiguous for folks.
Now guys lets not just completely give up. I mean everytime we see a good run of models we always tend to say well it will change and we wont get nothing and then when things are going well for us here in central ky for a few days and we have one bad run of models we all are ready to throw in the towel. That works both ways so I think we just need to see what the next couple of runs bring our way. We all know how fast they can change.
Dejavu. Same ole same ole. Been on the blog since it’s inception. Year after year, get your hopes up only for a let down. I think the central Ky snow dome is not dead yet. Hope I’m wrong.
Well Christopher…you gonna pull the trigger or are ya shootin blanks?
Wes….Chris posted somewhere the other day that no matter the track of the low, there will still be a chance for snow after the low wraps around and pulls the cold air back in over us.
u guys know that the storm is still 3 days away right? the models have switched back and forth so much and u now think it’s over?
My last post tonite…
Mike, one of the ideas that just ran thru my thick noggin’ is that there’s a distinct possibility the models are having a tough time computing the sheer amount of cold air that is still in place. I don’t know whether it makes much sense or not, but seeing as how we’ve had one of the coldest starts to December in several years, I think the models would have to “get used” to this brand of weather we have going on right now.
So, you are right, all the models are doing the “flip flop,” which is (I suppose) their way of analyzing ahead of time all the possibilities of a particular storm—not necessarily what’s going to happen.
No one should give up until the storm has dropped its last flake. 🙂 Just my take on it—probably not worth anything, but there it is anyway.
Rolo, pull that trigger!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mike, we’ve been here, we’ve done it , we’ve got the shirt.
ok here is how it is
1. statewide rainstorm
2. lakes cutter….
3. there will be wrap around 😀
4. 1-3” 3” totals the further east you live
5. very cold temps
6. i’ve summed it up for you nice n fast
7. you welcome
ok so i am a little peode that this one is not going to work out but winters young actaully falls late but watev..
Good thought Aaron. You make a good point.
He’ll just call for a skiff and we’ll get 3 feet of snow lol
What happened to not jumping on one model run? The trend has been for the southern storm. Crazy how one model flips and everyone starts having a fit. If the models still say cutter tomorrow afternoon then maybe we can start giving up.
Okay, Im confused Lol as usual.. But seriously, why cant we just stay on track & hope for a snow like we havent seen in years? I know that models tell you your chances or whatever But im still going to stay positive and HOPE for THE BIG ONE… Id love for these younger kids get to have a snow like I did as a child.
GFS Ensembles are sticking to their guns with a storm for KY. Keeps the low fairly South and East. Still not a good sign that the operational GFS decided to jog WAY north though.
folks looks like we are gonna be wading rather than sledding. While the midwest and NE are gonna have more snow than they know what to do with, we are gonna be getting cold rain……. Its only a matter of time before the GFS joins all the other models for a lake cutter. Oh well.
on a brighter note anyone notice how the blog has come alive with the start of winter? 😀
That’s it, I’m moving to Cleveland!!! I need some good snows in my life!!! 🙁
dude you need a roomate? lol
Ummmm…First of all I am not a dude..lol Second I have a husband and 3 kids…and I still need some snow in my life!!..LOL Even old married women need some fun!!
I might be following,but i think I’ll track a little east and go to Erie Pennsylvania.
lexington has had more snow than cleveland this winter lol.
Well, I am going to continue to stay the way my new screen name says! Dangit..tired of these “storms of the centuries” becoming rain and flurries!This storm has to happen, I have told too many people it is going to..I have been blogging on here for years..so my vote goes to WXMan…Tom (Even though he always gets the snow and I’m envious, Rolo and Coffeelady ..they are always here, always posting, always consistent (good or bad haha) a lot of other are good..but u have to choose! :)..but Chris rocks..and if he says its gonna happen it will!
Also one question..Northern Ky, Eastern Ky. SE KY. etc..where when it comes to these storms and predictions does Rowan County/Morehead actually fall when it does comes to a “bust” ..thanks ..I read this daily at often as I can..and a self proclaimed weather dork, which seems to have stuck well with my friends…I love this site..have a good nite!
Sounds like great news!
Mitch I also vote for you (hell the more people who aim the more likely you get hit right?) 🙂 sorry for the “bust” part, that didn’t fit with my name much huh.I meant when come to forecasting..seems we tend to fall into “no man’s land”..we aren’t Northern, Eastern, SE..Central, NortheEast..??
I am sooooo sick of getting hyped over these “superstorms”. By the way, I am not aiming this at CB in anyway. Kentucky has the most pathetic winters ever. Last winter was decent for the east, but overall, ky winters are horrible. I used to live in Williamsport, PA and those are real winters. KY gets the shaft with every winter storm. COLD RAIN, TRANSITION TO SNOW, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE LOW PASSES. if we are lucky we end up with a devastating snowfall of 4-6 inches bwahahaha.
I wish that this once we’d get many inches maybe even a foot!
And I’m Still praying for a white Christmas
Haven’t had one of those in a long time!
Tried to sleep could not this flu thing is killing me or sinuses or both.I am going to wait till Chris tells me different.Doesn’t he always say not to get hung up with a couple runs?
I forgot since there are 4 people in Pic I vote for Tim Rolo Chris and Coffee.
I have a question why is it so hard to know or track a low?
You Chris, you have to pull the trigger dude! Have read this blog since it started and it’s all you hunny!!
Where is the new post, is he waiting on the 3 AM runs? Please let them give us some good news. doubtful, but possible. Please chris tell us there is a chance we are gonna get some snow. I have a bad feeling that we are not going into winter storm mode. I remember last feburary, during snowmaggedon, We were in winter storm threat mode three days out. I know this storm is not even going to touch that storm, but we should still see some accumulating snows shouldnt we. I hope so cause from what I hear, we are going to have to get in all the winter we can before january cause it isnt looking good for winter lovers during jan, feb, and mar. From what I hear the SE ridge is going to set up shop in a big way. CHRIS PLEASE GIVE US SOME INFO ON THIS. DO YOU THINK JAN-MAR IS GOING TO BE A BUST FOR WINTER LOVERS? LA NINA EVENTS ARENT GOOD FOR WINTER LOVERS IN KY. HOWEVER, YOU HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE NAO, AO, AND ALL THAT JAZZ. CHRIS TELL US THERE IS HOPE FOR THIS WINTER.
That was nice