Good afternoon and thanks for dropping by the blog. After looking over some of the latest computer charts… the question becomes… should I upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat for the weekend? My answer is… not yet.
There is NO question a winter storm will impact the region Saturday through Monday. As you know… the only real impact most people care about is the snow part of it. There are still enough question marks about just how much snow may fall to keep me from upgrading.
That said… I have an itchy trigger finger and the southeast trend with the models continues leading to a greater snow threat around here. The only cure for that itch is may be to pull the trigger or more cowbell. 
The GFS Ensembles have been steady in showing our more southern and eastern track of the low…
That is made up of several different runs of the GFS and is the average from all the runs combined. It should be noted all the individual runs took the low up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.
The operation GFS has been trending toward what it’s children have been showing …
One of the main reasons many of the models are going for a farther south and east solution is because the shortwave diving into the trough from the west is weaker and has a later phase with the Polar Vortex. If that is the case (and we still do not know that)… this storm would likely put down some significant snows across the region Saturday night into Sunday.
The UKMET is similar to what it has been showing of late and to that of the GFS family…
The Canadian Model continues to inch slightly south and east of some earlier runs…
That brings us to the European Model. That model did go south and east last night and has now reverted back to what it had been showing for a while… the storm cutting all the way into the Great Lakes. As it stands now… it is the one and only model showing this. Does that mean its wrong? Nope as this is usually a good model. It phases the disturbance much earlier than the other models leading to more amplification sooner and the track into the lakes.
Regardless of any solution that comes to pass… wrap around snows, wind and arctic cold will settle in here Sunday.
I will have another update later today so check back. Take care.
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don’t think the 12z euro is out yet, none of the sites i have show the new run.
I think the snowdome is gonna deflect this thing into the great lakes & that the Euro is smart enough to pick up on it!
the funny thing is usually if the outlier model shows a big snow here we ignore it at the off model, but when the off model shows a rainstorm we have to take it serious….wrap around is better than nothing i guess.
This always kills me, the days leading up to a storm. I loved the “old school” snows….
From what I have read, the 12z Euro takes the low from SE Kansas to the Ill/Ind border then up to Northeast Ohio.
Yeah the 12Z is out, and runs it from Northern Ohio through up state New York. But like the 12Z GFS, I would not place my bet on this one Model run either. Just a few more runs and we should be able to tell how the Nam will track this system. That will be closer to the track that I think the Low will go. So we will have to wait, will the NAM favor the GFS or Euro? I am thinking a blend of the two.
euroooooo or the rest of models??? the redneck in house model says the EURO might be on crack this winter.
well at least thats what the redneck inhouse says.lolllllllllllllllllll
in on a serious note, i think the storm will be hit by the NAM when it gets in range.
So what does that mean for us in KY?
I agree rolo, the in my opinion the NAM has the story and is nearly in range. Based on the latest NAM, the surface low being in Texas is somewhat of a good sign. Meaning while it can track North to the EURO, it is really unlikely it will go that far. More realistically it will favor a solution South of the Euro, but North of The gfs. Meaning no giant snow, but at least some cold air catching some of the heavier moisture. Therefore we should still be in on a decent snow. 3-4 inches (maybe). Then maybe add another 2-3 for upslope in Eastern Kentucky.
yup that sums it up. basically from north texas then west of the ohio river aka lakes cutter. BUT this run has much more in the way of backend snows with it than prevoius euro runs. also an icing situation for the 17th-18th shows up on this run as well.
Okay, I know it’s only Tuesday, but this is KILLING ME!! I just get SO excited, but then, Im scared to get excited, because I dont want a let-down. Oh, if only the weather was predictable, But I guess that would take all the excitement out of it. I only wish for a huge snow (sometime soon, of course). I’m 26 and believe the largest snow I’ve ever seen is 8″. Guess I need to go occupy my brain till Friday night! BTW, I love the blog. Its always fun to build anticipation, and to hear what everyone has to say!
Yeah, its more north…just like the 00Z Euro ensembles were…which tells me that the south trend on the 00Z Euro was just a blip. Its all about the phasing…and until this system gets into the Radiosonde network…its anybody’s guess on what will happen with this system.
It’s only Wednesday. If I were Chris, I would NOT pull the trigger today. Wait for another 24 hour cycle of models and then make a call. Just my opinion. Even if he makes a call Thursday night, he’ll still be 36 hours ahead of the NWS. 🙂 Ok, that last part was all in fun.
The 0Z 850mb Euro charts I’m looking at take the low directly across Kentucky and into western NY on Sunday. We’d still get snow.
My question to you is, as a Meteorologist, how do you give a long term forecast? The Euro seems to be the outlier here, but has been the best model at long term forecasting, therefore you can’t completely throw it out.
t im 36 years old and some of the biggest snows we got in SE/E KY was storms moving to our east that gave us WHIPLASH/ WRAPAROUND snows.
i say this because couple weather guys are saying eastern ky to WV up into PA will see a snowstorm with the WRAPAROUND/BACKLASH from a low bombing out to our east.
I was thinking the same thing my friend!we got one model sticking out like a sore thumb and all of a sudden thats the one we’ll go with…seems alittle stupid to me. but oh well im no pro by any means…I just love the snow and want lots of it!!!!!!!!!!!…:)
Think we will not no more until tomorrow afternoon. The models should start to come together by then. Still a bit too far out to make any judgements and just too much uncertainty with the track. At least we are very much in play. Just my take. THTB
Yeah that is defiantly a live option. So if this thing can lay down some good snow on its way through then folks in East Kentucky better watch out, once you add the wrap around and upslope that would follow. You guys might have to dig out. LOL. But we are a long way off from that scenario playing out. But you never know
Whiplash!!! Did you say whiplash????
Chris…PULL THE TRIGGER, PULL IT!!! BREAK THE STINKIN THING OFF!!!…LOL..:)
WHIPLASH…LOL…LOL…rolo you crack me up!!! the blog would’nt be the same without you…lol…
if this storm causes WHIPLASH, let me know my wife is a nurse…I’ll hook ya up!!!…
Wow! Further inspection of the 12z Euro shows tremendous backlash snows in here late Sunday into Monday. That would account for several inches.
So did someone say something about snow? LOL…What about after Tuesday? Snow?
here is what Henry Margusity is saying I post it because he has east ky getting hammered!!!…
1. A storm that is bombing out along the coast Monday morning will pull very cold air into it very quickly, changing rain over to snow and causing flash freezes all the way into Philly and New York City first, and Hartford and Albany later in the morning. Rush hour in the big cities could be a monumental disaster Monday morning.
2. From eastern Kentucky through West Virginia, western and Central Pennsylvania into western and central New York, any rain will change over to a wind-whipped snowstorm with falling temperatures later Sunday into Sunday night. Lake squalls and bitterly cold weather follow the storm in the same areas. Lake-effect totals will once again be in feet.
3. The snowfall in the Ohio Valley will generally be under 6 inches because the storm will jump to the coast. However, the extreme cold coming in and high winds will whip the snow into a frenzy.
PULL IT!! PULL IT!!!…:)
Ole henry Margusity is saying east ky and wva. gonna get HAMMERED!!!
All I know is it better not drop that freakin’ ice like it did a couple of years ago. It can drop anvils out of the sky for all I care. No power for 2 weeks, chopping fire wood every day, huddled around the fireplace with the dogs and some good old Kentucky bourbon to stay warm. Can I get an AMEN?
its gonna do something major don’t have a clue what my daughter and the cats are all going nuts and bouncing off the walls my daughter has autism and barometric pressure changes and lows effect her so we can always tell if something big is brewing. reckon i’ll get a bunch of rabbits knitted this weekend. i done beat the grocery store crowd. go ahead chris pull the trigger im ready.
JKL NWS saying a couple of inches for the CWA with higher amounts along the border. Can’t believe they are trying to throw out totals right now.
The Louisville snowdome is inflated and being hauled into place by snow disliking elves- just as we speak…..just watch…
I don’t care what happpens so long as we don’t get a big ice storm, or get another one of those “close calls” like we did in 2004 with 22 inches less than 100 miles away while we got 2 inches of snow.
3 inches of snow is going to be plenty for us after all the wind and cold air gets here—it will feel plenty like winter, and there’ll be plenty of snow days, too.
Bring on the snow…..
ahh heck BAILEY we all had a misfire in our lifes, shoot that DANG THING!! just point it away from the putter screen.
as TIM SAYS PULL THE TRIGGER.LOLLLLLLLLL
Chris you are killing me lol.Tim I am a nurse I will help if I get over this Flu.I am in easter Ky so bring it on!!!!!!
Not trying to dodge the question, but there is not enough room here to answer how I do a long term forecast. While the Euro is an outlier at the moment, the 12Z run does have significant agreement with the 12Z euro ensembles. So its tough to throw the model out at this time.
I’ll put my money on the Euro. I think the low tracks over southern Indidan into central Ohio leaving Kentucky with a cold rain that ends as snow. Disappointing, but not surprising given where we live. I hope the Euro is right about backlash snows, but it’s always tricky betting on backlash for accumulations.
Thanks, that’s basically all I was wondering.
The NAM though still a few runs away from telling how the storm really impacts our area, is suggesting a more southern track to the low. So it is really EURO V. every other model. Who will win?
AMEN!!!!
Given our history of “big ones”, I’m going to say the Euro is probably correct.
Chris, i”m from nj. What will the storm do for nj? And have you ever seen both the gfs and the euro this far apart on 5 days left to go?
no it has the nogaps, cmc and jma with it. modeling is split 50/50 at this point. ukmet/nam and gfs on other side.
Yeah history is not on our side. But when you have all the other models suggesting a southern track and one going with another extreme. Its hard to say that it will be the one to hit. The Euro is not perfect and has missed in the past, just as the other models have as well. This thing is still a few days out. I would guess we are in for some more roller coaster runs with the models.
Here is what the 12z GFS is showing in terms of snowfall out to 120hours
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
AMEN again!!
Not too exciting for my neck of the woods.
And a hallelujah too!
I’d take the 4-6″ its showing for my area and run with it!!!!!!…RUN FOREST!!! RUN !!!!….LOL…
if cb isnt pulling the trigger at this point this one is bad news
Yeah about time to give up on this one. But a general 1-2 is still a possibility.
You guys are funny! Im glad hes not…a good shooter is one who steadys. steady. steady–now shoot..got it. Just hold your pants
first off we are still 4 days away, thi is a complicated storm to get a habdle on also.
its like deer hunting if ur after a BUCK u dont pop the first 4 pointer/small rack u see.
BAILEY will pull the trigger no later than tomm afternoon,
i give u the REDNECK INHOUSE MODEL snow prediction.
this for my peeps in S/E/SE KY 4 -6 inches with higher amounts poossible if thinks come togther.
this by Tuesday.
today new word fore the inter is,,,,
WHIPLASH SNOWS!!LOLLL
like the oreillyyy factor every nite we will have a new winter weather word daily.
well said BF, BAILEY a safty first guy, he putting on his orange vest and cap as we speak, and his WINTER WEATHER SCENT.
Wouldn’t say that in the least. There’s still high uncertainty with the track, so to declare anything one way or the other at this point would be presumptuous. Chris is probably just waiting to see what the higher resolution models do with this storm, as they’re just now coming into play.
No I am just joking. As I believe you cannot take one run and go with it. The NWS seems to like a potential weather maker for Eastern Kentucky, per the NWS Jackson Ky. So we shall see. It is 4 days out.
The supressed GFS is out to lunch. There won’t be more snow in TN than in this state. The Euro will likely be right with the Low tracking right up the Ohio River or just north of it. The GFS is suffering from it’s terrible cold bias. This isn’t a lake cutter, but it’s not a southern storm either.
Early indications by the NAM likes a scenario close to the one you described. I agree the GFS may be given the cold air to much credit.
Based on experience…the NAM is only good within 36 hours of an event.
No No No! It is our turn to have a BIG snow in Jessamine county. A few won’t do!
another concern i think is high water SATURDAY into saturday nite.
You say the Euro will likely be right, then say the storm is not a lakes cutter. The Euro is showing a lakes cutter right now. The GFS, I agree is probably a bit South, BUT it has some support from other models. I still think it’s too early to tell which will be correct. I’d not pay much attention to anything until 00z tomorrow night. At that point, you should start to understand what this baby will do.
Folks, CB has already stated several times Saturday will mainly be cold rain for us. Best case for Saturday is if north KY gets some snow. That is what my take was of what CB has been talking about for the past day.
CB’s main focus appears to be after Saturday- for now, a anyway.
I sure hope we get enough snow to get the day off Monday and stay home with the kids.
What was the person above said? “Not surprising given our location”
If it’s our location causing the snow dome then what was up with all those major winters we used to have in this area? I assume you’re talking about the past eleven years, but that can only last so long; it won’t stay like that forever.
I may be an optimist but I believe we, in Central Kentucky, will have a snow day Monday. Although a break is so close, do I want to blow a day already on snow? Ahhhh, who cares?? Let it snow!!!
I have to leave for Nashville Monday morning and DO NOT want to go ! I am so praying my drive way is full of snow !
I live in mercer county and I sure hope you are correct.
Can anyone tell me best case scenario for snow and worst case scenario as well. I know nothing is set in stone but without meteorological terms what are the possibilities still on the table?
Ali…it’s Wednesday