Good Wednesday to one and all. Considering how cold and snowy it has been to start the month of December… the headline of a major blast of winter coming would seem rather odd to say. However, it should say something about what is ahead given we are 7 for 7 for cold and snow days so far this month. That whole mess kicks off this weekend and continues into much of next week.
In the short term… it’s cold. You don’t really need me to tell you that as this is now one of the coldest starts to December on record for this region. Temps today will head back into the 20s for many as the west warms into the 30s. The start to this day is going to be frigid with single digits a good bet in many spots.
Track the temps here…
Today’s Lows
Current Temps
Temps will come up some for Thursday and Friday with a mythical 40 degree temp a good bet for most by Friday. A weak system crossing the Great Lakes Friday morning may have enough juice to throw some snow showers into our northern counties early in the day.
That brings us to the fun part of the program… the weekend and what should be a major winter storm impacting the region.
The pronounced trends on the models over the past day or so has been a farther south solution. This would amount to option 3 that I outlined a few days back with low pressure tracking eastward across Kentucky and Tennessee the turning up the east slopes of the Appalachian mountains as it deepens along the way. That does not mean that will be the end result in terms of the track… it is just the flavor of the moment with the models. Given the amount of snowcover and cold air across the northern teir of states into Canada… I can see how this option can easily be the end result.
Before we get too far into this, I want to say there it is still too early to get very specific about a lot of things with this storm. That said… there are some things I feel pretty comfortable in forecasting…
– There will be a big storm this weekend. 
– Saturday is more than likely to be a cold rain for much of the region. (more on that in a bit)
– Arctic air is going to surge in here Saturday night into early Sunday leading to a rapid change to snow.
– Accumulating snows are a good bet from Sunday into Monday as good wrap around moisture appears to settle in here. Way too early to talk totals.
– Temps sunday will plunge into the teens by evening. Readings for Monday and Tuesday will struggle into the low and mid teens for highs. Lows can flirt with zero.
– Winds will be wicked and will send wind chill temps well below zero.
Here are some things that are POSSIBLE…
– The rain Saturday can start off as a wintry mix for some areas as temps will be very close to the freezing mark early.
– If the low cuts more east than north… this would lead to a much more rapid change to snow Saturday night and lead to higher totals.
– With such a rapid temp drop… a major freeze up from prior rains can occur as snow falls on the ice.
– If readings can get to 0 or below… it would mark the first time most areas have been that cold in December since 1989.
Again… those are just some possibilities given the pattern setting up. No matter how you slice it… Sunday through next week is going to give us one amazing blast of winter in a lot of ways.
How about what the models are showing? As I mentioned earlier… many of the solutions have trended south with the first low. The GFS has been showing something similar now for several runs in a row…
The GFS Ensembles have been trending south with each run and the latest run was the farthest south of any model I can find right now…
The Canadian Model has also trended much farther to the south and now takes low pressure across us and deepens it just to our east…
The European Model had been the strongest proponent of a storm cutting to the lakes. That is no longer the case…
Regardless of where the storm goes… the arctic express is coming and it is going to get brutally cold for our region and for much of the country. Take a look at some of the temps the GFS is showing for early next week…
Brrrrr! I get cold just looking at that. This is going to be such a powerful cold shot that 20s will plunge all the way into Florida and some snows can fall all the way into the deep south.
This is going to be a busy time here on the blog so get your popcorn ready. I will have updates as needed today so be sure to check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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Popcorn! How about some hot chocolate? 🙂 I read these post and I get so excited that I can’t hardly sleep.
It should be noted the new UKMET looks an awful lot like the GFS Ensembles in terms of the track of the low… perhaps even a smidge south. Hmmmm..
GFS has been pretty consistent the past two days and I’m glad to see UKMET has agreed that the SNOW TRAIN is blowing its whistle. If you listen real close… you can hear, “ALL ABOARD!”
If DGEX plays out, the snow train is going to be snowed in!
The new south trend bailey is speaking of.. Is this better for snow? or rain? Do we want this this low to trend more south?
Chris or anyone does that mean SE Ky is out of the loop this time for any snow? Rolo Bubba G Mitch Wxman anyone jump in please??
Wow! I have got to get to the store and stock up on popcorn and hot chocolate!
Thanks Chris!
Further south means cold moves in quicker and change over to snow will occur more rapidly Sat into Sun. A north track means more warm area for the region and we get longer period of cold rain and little to no snow decent (4-8 in ) sonw
Crystal right now we are out of luck, but the models this moening continue to shift aouth. so u never no, but right now it be a backside upslope deal for most part.
hey rolo,
this isn’t going to have a very bad drop in barometric pressure is it? i have a daughter with ausitm and barinetric pressure changes mess with her badly if you or anybody else could give me a heads up so i can get sensory stuff in place for her closer to it hitting i would appreciate it.
Cmon snow and cold. I selfishly would like a day or 2 extra off before 2011!
At the rate this pattern is going, I’d say our odds of a white Christmas are much higher than the average. My prediction of rain on Christmas Eve is already in jeopary! LOL.
The NWS says 1-2 right w the caveat that any deviation in the track will affect snow totals. Chris right in that why bother to give any amount of totals this far out with so much uncertainty? Probably will not have a good handle on this till Friday afternoon time frame in my opinion but hey I am not a Meteroligist nor do I play one on TV! Will be interesting to see how this all plays out that is for sure. Good day to all and check out that KY Home Performance Program by the way. That looks like a good deal especially if it is a harsh winter!
Are we looking at measurable snow with this system or not?
Saw WHAS 11 in Louisville is currently saying 1-2 in far south Kentucky, 2-4 in Louisville and points south, and heavier accumulations in southern Indiana, it will be interesting to see how much does fall here, I hope the models continue to trend south with the track!
1 -3 inches with the upslope after front passes. could see some high water in E/SE KY too SATURDAY as of latest models most of ths system moistre will be RAIN for alot of ky. with scott county north best bet for any snow.
centrail INSIANA NORTH/NW berst bet for a BIG snow, look like rain for most of kentucky with the usual backside snow showers for the most part.
that said long range look like its going stay in the cold pattern into january with occasional spike in temps. so we get other chances for a BIG SNOW by the look of things.
This is the one to bet on ATM. CB has covered himself well with his outlook, since the most consistent thing CB mentioned so far is cold rain for Saturday, when most of the moisture will be with the system.
As stands now, seems a “classic” fence set-up for us that will result in folks north and east of us getting smacked pretty hard. Will be interesting to see how much moisture is in the Sunday through Monday time frame, considering the cold air in place. That arctic air usually pushes most of the moisture out of this area and WV, VA & PA end of getting the big snow as it wraps up to the NE.
Need the southerly trend to continue at least another 80ish miles more south to hit the sweet snow spot.
Sounds like we are in for a real roller coaster ride over the weekend into next week! Need to get the shopping finished before it hits! (Hard to do when you are at home sick. Yuck)
Can’t wait to see your thought as it gets closer…of course, if there is any rain to be had, we here in Pulaski County will be the ones to get it…regardless. 😉
Im not sure bout you all, but it just feels like we are going to get a real good snow out of this thing! But heck what do I now, this year I “felt” like the Bengals had a good chance at the super bowl….Many “experts” said they would go to the playoffs..who would have predicted 9 losses in a row!–They really went SOUTH this year…I got a feelin that this snow storm is going to go SOUTH this time and we are going to get a great snow!!!
Moderation heck, so giving up here. As stands, CB has clearly stated we are mainly cold rain for the main moisture on Saturday, so “big snow” does not seem a likely result for most of KY. Extreme north and east KY will be the areas that have a decent shot of much higher totals.
I mentioned the last ime we had cold air and snow chance like this was 1989 and CB mentioned this. The one key difference in 1989 though was Tennessee was the fence for the system and not Kentucky.
even if we dont get alot of snow after the changeover, the wraparound, and squalls with this storm are gonna be on steroids!!! and its gonna be very windy as well…so what ever does fall, will be whipping around like crazy…
LEX official stats – DEC. 1989:
8 days with below zero readings.
6.2″ of snow. 6 days with snowfall.
Average temp. of 16.8°F from the 15th-31st!
Snow on Christmas Day.
Coldest Day: 22nd with -19 low/0 high.
Never reached freezing between the 15th and Christmas.
It was a BRUTAL month!
Departures from normal at the London/Corbin airport for Dec. so far are -13.3* !! thats quit impressive with the last 2 days running 20* below normal…
one word for ya upslope!!!
se ky should do well from this.
In fact the arguement could be made the operational gfs is a northern outlier with the track and the ecmwf has trended a good deal south as shown above. Seeing a southern trend for sure today. by the way watch tuesday close as well for a week disturbance with high ratios that could easily be another inch or two of snow for some.
I am from Cynthiana. What does it look like for this area?
Someone please correct me if I am wrong but for Louisville to receive some nice snow amounts from this the storm needs to track further to south right? And if someone could tell me which is better the GFS or NAM? and what time does the NAM come out?
if only the NAM was correct.lol
man the latest NAMstarting and it has low WAY SOUTH.
Armageddon.
I was just privy to an email from Weinberg….in which he says that there is just a lot of hype with this storm and that he thinks it will be mostly rain and maybe..MAYBE….an inch of snow if lucky.
yeah, we should see some awesome upslope from this storm, we’ve had some intense snow squalls this week..cant wait to see if they get even better…
Anyone care to give an unofficial best gest for snow in Monticello?
LOL !!! better call in Bruce Willis..lol..
I don’t think the DGEX is doing so well at the moment. It doesn’t even turn the storm up the east coast.
Weinberg?? As in, Mark Weinberg?? Isn’t that the guy who always says nothing is going to happen and SPC is stupid for issuing a Moderate Risk when it appears that tornadoes are going to kill people? That is one met. whose name should be banned from this blog. That guy is either blind or dumb. Don’t know which. I’ve even called the station about him…he’s going to get people hurt one day. If a storm doesn’t take his own house away, he never believes anything will happen.
No matter the storm, the Louisville stations always say the highest totals will be either north of the city or south of the city. They never seem to want to express any optimism about a storm until the day before. God, I miss John Belski.
Well the GFS is coming out. And it will be interesting to see if it runs the Low even further south. Some things are indicating that the Blocking may be suppressing the system. Lets see.
the DGEX snow map says just east of us gets HAMMERED. or im blind one.
As I expected and the same thing the NAM is suggesting, (even though it is not projecting that far out, you can tell it will send the low to the south as well). The models are catching on to the blocking.
Tom what does that mean for us here in KY?
DGEX sucks.
yup, more in line with the gfs ensembles from this morning. the 12z run has convective feedback issues. but still the region would get several inches of snow with this track.
average is about 25% I’d say 40% right now.
Well it can mean a few things. But south is good for snow lovers, as it will place the cold air in Kentucky much faster. However, this is only one run, so I would be surprised if the models did not waffle some more. But this is fitting the over all pattern of the last several runs of the low heading to the south.
Go south! Go south! Go south!
dude you gotta be kidding, dusting to blizzard good nuff for you? lol the track of this low and speed on enroaching arctic air will determine that.
Ahh…the old SE cold bias of the GFS returns. I can see southern trend in the models…but this run completely over does it.
exactly! this is why most well probably all of the state should see mainly rain with light accumulations on the backside. I favor st louis to dayton ohio line points northwest getting the good stuff.
Hey gang… I’ve been reading but haven’t had time to post of late. Just wanted to say Im still here, and this blog rocks… Looking forward to all the fun watching how this all plays out.
The positive though is even if overstated, the direction is favoring a southerly bia. A nice composite solution of several models with a southerly solution could be good 🙂
Compared to what? It’s basically just a high resolution extension of the WRF/GFS. I.E., more reliable.
For those of you all who read the Belski Blog, they have a new forecaster blogging now. Here are his thoughts in his latest post.
The big change today is just about every model has shifted SOUTH! This includes the EURO, GFS, UKMET, and DGEX (though the DGEX is a renegade model. inside meteorology joke).
The shift to the south is concerning and only complicates the forecast further. So as of this update, 12z NAM/GFS appear to be the middle ground of the extremes of the EURO (north) and UKMET (south) ideas. The EURO updates around 2 or 3pm.
The current GFS run does hint that the more significant snow would fall to the SOUTH of Louisville into TN!? I know. Quite the switch.
Another thing to mention is that if this is the track that holds, thunderstorms in the south may block the moisture flow to KY. This means while we would be on the snow side, the snow would be light as the storms would steal all the moisture. Just something to think about if we keep seeing this look to future model runs.
Than again, we would need an 80 to 100 mile shift south to make Saturday evening a big snow for a good chunk of KY. I see why CB so far states probably cold rain.
Yeh, even the track of low pressure center is all wack-o. It’s retarded. I think this storm looks similar to one we had in March of 93 or 94.. one of those years. Severe T-storms when I went to bed, 4″ of snow when I woke up. That was a wild storm.
yup for all the talk on the new gfs run the euro still brings little snow.
Well, if ths system does trend more south and KY gets it, OF COURSE thunderstorms would steal the moisture. How would it be any other ironic way? 😉
that’s convective feedback with the storms. the 12z gfs overdid it. that and the se bias are the two most known biases in the gfs.
Yeah the next EURO run will be interesting. If it has another further shift to the south then this system will officially have my attention.Just a few days ago the EURO had this going into Detroit, but not so anymore. Only time will tell.
well it first storem of year, now last year we always got the NW TREND. but till we get to the storm who to know that its a different situation with models this winter.
time will tell.
Yep. It is always in the direction of trend. IF cold air was to draw further down and not suppress the moisture, some parts of KY could get smacked. Way too early to peg anything, so will be interesting to see if CB buys into any of it.
The composite (summary of key models) was a LOT further north and the southerly slide appears to continue. Question is did CB already account for this, or is it new territory?
Settle down Mr. T. Perhaps too many Red Bulls or Amps? 😉
It was an innocent question that others are thinking too, even if the answer is based on pure conjecture with little chance of accuracy 🙂
my overall thinking click link below to see map
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/CALL21.gif
That guy happens to be a good friend of mine, and the original founder of the WKU Storm Team. He basically started it all on his own with little support. I had the privilege of doing TV weather with him there and he taught me a lot about on-camera presentation. This guy knows his stuff. With all that said, I think we should obviously use the 12Z GFS run cautiously.
Just saw this from Jeff Masters, and seems to be really out there as far as prediction, compared to what Chris has been saying. I’ll take Chris any day!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html
Yeah I agree, we cannot take the 12Z at its word. But it does grant some optimism in a very pessimistic situation, concerning the chance for some decent snow. Sure, it is still far out and this thing may still hit the lakes. But their is now at least reason to question the northern track.
I’m from Cynthiana too and would love a snow day!!
storm team still going strong, along with stormtoppers and a AMS chapter of the met club.
Hoping to go into Winter Storm Threat mode soon because thats really when Chris gets behind these storms and lets us know its the real deal. Wondering about the chances of snow are in EKY but don’t want to get overly eager just to be dissapointed….any thoughts?
Good to hear. I was one of a handful of people at the very first meeting…exactly 13 years ago this week. 🙂 We even got access to the “live key”, so we could interupt campus cable TV with updates.
It appears to me no matter which option takes place Eastern Kentucky will get some nice upslope snow following the storm. The question is will that be on top of a decent snow, or just a inch or 2. Right now no one knows. But their is great agreement about the upslope snow
there not their
Whoever the person is posting on CB’s Twitter that Jim Cantore is talking about a big snow for KY would be better served to read what Jim posted and look at his look his map. Unless KY is now Ohio, Jim is NOT saying KY is getting a big snow.
Bad information being sent through CB’s Twitter feed. Sad.
theeuro is even more NORTH than it had been, rain in indiana and ohio.lol
battle of the models, theat EURO went ridco NORTH AND WEST on latest run.
The twitter from Cantore in question read:
“Sat/Sun/Mon Storm still on target for snow in TN/KY/WV/PA/NY and rain for east coast then COLD again. Could be decent mid-south snowstorm.”
That was from last night. Of course, everything is always subject to change, as we know very well with Kentucky weather. 😉
It can drop anvils out of the sky for all I care. As long as it isn’t that dang ice like we had In that ice storm a couple of years back. No power for two weeks, sleeping by the fire place wih the dogs and a bottle of Kentucky bourbon every night to stay warm wasn’t much fun. Until the fourth shot of course.
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