Good Tuesday evening everyone. Today has been a busy one for your friendly weather dude so I apologize for the later than normal update. We have of maps to throw your way and my time is running short in terms of overall analysis.
I have outlined 3 possible scenarios for the weekend storm in terms of track. 1. The low heads toward the Great Lakes before a secondary takes over in the Mid Atlantic. 2. The low works into the lower Ohio Valley and weakens giving way to the bigger storm to our east. 3. The low basically runs almost due east across Kentucky and Tennessee then rapidly strengthens as it turns up the east slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.
There was a decided model shift today toward options 3 and 2. The European model is still dead set on option 1 with a strong low running toward the Great Lakes. That said… it’s own Ensembles are more geared toward option 2. Here is the comparison of the two…
The Canadian Model has been among the option 1 models for a few days now… but today it started going more toward option 2…
The rest of the models are more toward Option 1. Those in this camp include the UKMET… JMA… NOGAPS… GFS and GFS Ensembles.
GFS
That is the hot off the presses GFS that is rolling out as I type. If THAT model run verifies… then that is a big snowfall for much of the state. It is a BIG if though… but it does match the NAVY NOGAPS model output from this morning.
UKMET
Regardless of the option… here are some things I am pretty confident in…
– Saturday should be mainly rain. (Though the GFS says that might be in question for some.)
– There will be a RAPID transition to snow late Saturday night and early Sunday as temps drop like a rock.
– Backlash snows should be robust for Sunday into Sunday night with accumulations a good bet.
– A wicked outbreak of snow showers and squalls would be with us Monday through Tuesday with more accumulating snows likely. This outbreak should take flakes all the way into the deep south.
– A MAJOR arctic outbreak moves in later Sunday and hangs into the middle of next week. Highs in the teens and lows that can flirt with zero will be likely from Monday through Wednesday.
– Winds will crank and this should lead to dangerously cold wind chills.
– Anyone telling you how much snow will fall with this system should be laughed at and never be trusted again. 
Honestly… if someone is trying to tell you how much snow will fall from 5 and 6 days out… they really have NO clue about weather forecasting.
I will update as needed so check back. Have a great evening and take care.
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So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
Most hilarious post ever made on a weather blog…
Way to stoke the fire on the blog, Chris. 🙂
So true on what you said Chris… ” if someone is trying to tell you how much snow will fall from 5 and 6 days out… they really have NO clue about weather forecasting. “
Just a wait and see and let the models settle in.
Dumb and Dumber was such a great movie.
Thanks for all you do Chris! Sounds as if you are going to have busy weekend.
Go gfs
THanks chris for the updates today!!!…hmmm.. model mayhem begins !!!
I just have to throw it out here. I said get ready for a big snow on the December 1st. I’m giving me credit for the first one to say something about this one. Even though it was a 50/1, its sweet when the long shot wins. YAY ME!
I think it is tacky to bash others for them taking a stab at amounts if they like a certain model. A good forecaster would have a general idea. I like your blog but that was a turn off to read man.
Thanks Chris! We really appreciate how hard you work!! Also…Thanks MJ! You guys are the best. 🙂
So out of the 3 options, somebody please tell me which favors a good shot at a snowmaker. Hopefully a good snowmaker.
I don’t know…I think the best anyone can do with that model mess this far out is to say “rain changing to snow.” This is Kentucky…the limbs that forecasters go out on usually break.
You will quickly learn here that Chris is a god and no one else has any idea what they are talking about ever.
Best to not post unless you are one of the fanboys.
I am so confused ,,,,,lol
A storm where 150 miles can make the difference of no snow to a foot. We’ll see??? I’ve got my “GO GFS” banner flying high.
nathan I think you need to step off an NOT be disrespectful to Chris…..no one makes you come here and read, and He is an excellent forcaster and it would be stupid to put an amount out there when no one even knows yet how much moisture the system will have to work with. All I can say is GO CHRIS! The “weathermen” around here are seeming to blow it off and saying not much accumulation….we shall see… and fyi i think what you said is TACKY! He wasn’t bashing, but stating a fact!
Thanks for the update..I will be fine as long as we get enough snow to sled and build snowmen! And btw… I think there are 2 Nathan’s on here, I am the Nathan that commented on the Frozen Tundra blog from this morning.
Appears somebody struck a nerve with CB. Sounds like this system is even more volatile than others in the past, so would be silly to say specific totals until a day or so prior. That said, if the bulk o of moisture is rain on Saturday, seems most of us are not in a for big snow potential. Still a decent and pethaps significant snow chance, over a few days.
CB has already stated it will be mainly rain on Saturday, which is apparently the bulk if the moisture. Folks north of us may get hammered with “power out” level weather and THEN zero temps. Yikes.
I second that Chelle….
I say we get a snow, somewhere between 1 and 190 inches. Okay I feel 90% sure my forecast will be correct.
I am not the same Nathan that did those comments above lol I am going to change it to Nate so it won’t get confused.:)
Mellow, fellow. It was a playful jab at a competitor. Thicken your skin as you will need to for the upcoming chill…..
Just keep in mind that research has shown that out of the 4 daily runs of the GFS, the 18Z run is the least reliable. Still, this storm does obviously bear watching because Blizzard Warnings will likely end up posted somewhere.
You can certianly go elsewhere…. nowhere is it written that this blog is required reading…..
Don’t forget about the fangirls! 😉
Proof is still on the ground in Frankfort.
Last weekends storm total’s in Frankfort 3to5 inches. No one but Chris had a 2 to 4 inch chart for this area. An inch or 2 at most was called for by other sources. Chris is the most reliable snow MAN! 🙂
Which model has the most accuracy 3 days out and 5 days out in winter weather?
Bah!
Negative Bubba thinks since Saturday will mainly be rain (as Chris stated), no big snow, so just a lot of data churn and speculation for a few inches and REAL cold weather.
Positive Bubba says we could maybe possibly still see s significant (though not big) snow Sunday morning through Tuesday.
Question is even if Saturday was mainly snow, would we really want it?
1. Drought weakened trees
2. Probably a lot of unstable trees from previous ice storm
I would MUCH rather have power and a decent snow over a few days, rather than no power and be stuck for a few DAYS due to the whacky cold temps making getting out next to impossible. Deep snow and real cold weather are not travel companions in Kentucky.
This event could be one of those we would be happy to miss. That is unless you are a cold hearted narcissist with no compassion for your fellow man…… Was that too dramatic?? 😉
I agree! When it comes to winter weather, Chris is my number 1 source! (Actually when it comes to any weather!)
you go Chris
I think the nam is the the most accurate but it is not perfect. The nam model will become a player tomorrow. Since it mainly focus on the weather 84 hours out into the future.
Jackson NWS is gunho on the upcoming storm which is unusual for them:
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL FOR THE CWA IF
EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS. BUT EVEN IF THE
LESSER ECMWF SOLUTION PANS…OUT EAST KENTUCKY CAN STILL ANTICIPATE
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS…BITTER WIND CHILLS AND AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS LIKELY COLDER THAN ONE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION SINCE
SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW PARKED NEARLY IN PLACE AND CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY…SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER
COLD…ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME IN DECEMBER…WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
COMBINED WITH THIS WEEK…WITH THE WAY IT IS SHAPING UP…MANY KIDS
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MORE THAN A HANDFUL
OF SCHOOL DAYS IN BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM AND THE
COLD AIR THAT FOLLOWS DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING…PARTICULARLY FOR
THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE COLD AND SNOW.
Sounds good to me.
safe to say chris was referring to the discussion issued for the Louisville cwa by paducah nws today. odd to have one very pro snow and the other a more conservative discussion.
ECMWF, though in this case I’m skeptical of it’s solution. This is usually the time gfs tries to go silly for a few runs, we shall see.
Was just passively watching the Weather Channel and saw Jim Cantores hand written storm track and where the snow might fall and it actually went South of KY. Take it for what it is worth though!
W.W.
myself, i don’t give a big kitty whether chris bailey nails the forcast or not..i’m a lover of winter in every form! his enthusiasm alone makes me grin. his love for weather gives us snow lovers hope for the “big” one, and i live for the thrill of his posts!!! keep doing what your doing chris, your amazing at what you do, and you have a lot of fans here who can’t wait to read your every thought on the upcoming months of winter..thanks for your hard work and dedication to this site..and for the uptight people on here who take every little thing to heart, chill!
Hey… I am just excited we are discussing the possibilities of a storm pre Dec. 15. Lots of Winter left to go and if these couple of weeks are any indication it is going to be an exciting winter for us snow lovers!
Folks, please consider that though CB has not posted totals, he did say the Saturday (most of the moisture for the system) would be all rain except LATE Saturday night.
Seems big snow is not an option, but a decent event over a few days a fair possibility. People north of us are probably going to wish they were in Kentucky by Monday night.
CB, could I be considered a “fanwoman”? 🙂
Just for fun…my son was born on Dec. 6th, 1973…and every year that it snowed on his birthday, we usually had a cold and snowy winter…It snowed on his birthday this year.
That’s not GFS or NAM, just the JIM model(my son’s name)
Stay warm, everyone.
There are too many Bills on the board! Not that it matters to anyone, but I am changing my name Bill L ( L is for Louisville – where I live) Thanks!
I was reading a mention of dry slotting elsewhere- what role might that play here with this potential monster? Anyone care to hazard a guess?
I don’t pretend to even know what those runs mean. That’s why I depend on Chris!
🙂 And I don’t care if he makes a mistake sometime in the future. So? Who’s perfect? Chris does an A #1 job in my book. And I agree with Snow Princess. Chris’s blog and his posts are so exciting! He makes weather interesting. This is where I come to check the forecasts. Chris is dependable!
Thank you Chris! We appreciate your hard work very much!
Guys Chris is so special we all know that he devote so much of his time to us and this blog so we must overlook any one that get on here and disrespect him period…. and also we need to thank his wonderful family for letting him devote so much of his time to keep this blog going because we would truely be lost without it…..
Agree with Char, CB makes weather interesting. Heck, I think he can make an August drought sort of interesting LOL. Got to admire his passion and, even more, his skill at sorting things out. I’ve followed the blog since his days at WKYT and it seems like he is usually spot on with the details. Forecasting winter weather is a challenge, especially in Kentucky, but CB does a dang good job. Also, its always great to have MJ and Shane around to share their views. All in all, we’ve a got a fun weather community going on here.
Howdy Rolo..! My redneck brotheren…
Question from CB, MJ, Mitch, WX or anyone with the answer…
As far as Sunday, in the Lexington area, will the snow be heavy or more like last go around..?
BTW, I will be about 2hrs north of Toronto Thursday & Friday… If I have a chance, I’ll shoot CB a couple of pics and he can share if he wishes… Reports of 2~3 feet of snow where I’m headed… hehehe
Actually, That’s questions “for”, not “from…
Geez…. Sorry…
will depend on the track but there is a chance for a few hours of moderate snow sunday.
thermal profiles close for freezing rain saturday morning for a few hours on some model runs.
Depends on the track and the moisture. Honestly, it’s still too early to get wrapped up abou Sunday.
All of you rooting for the last run of the GFS are gettin ready to get your feelings hurt by this latest run. Elivs sings about the cold kentucky rain, you better listen to the king. Our snowstorm has left the building (notice a pattern here?)
I’m really excited about the weekend system. I realize it could be a cold rain, all snow, or a mixture of both (probably the most likely possibility). But I do want to remind everyone, it’s always better to be prepared for bad weather and have things on hand like flashlights, batteries, back up heating source, a good food supply and of course toilet paper. Don’t wait until the last minute and decide to go buy back up lights because generally wal-mart and places will be sold out.
I’d like to be considered the “Fanchic” ;P
I like it!
Yes…waz just watching the Weather Channel during a commercial break of the Celtics game…Rhondo is amazing by the way….anyway Cantore just gave KY a shout saying we might have a “decent snow event on Sunday” take that for what it is worth. His GFS track was drawn way South. Guess we need to wait for the NAM. Moral of the story no one knows what is going to happen yet so CB waiting before pulling te trigger is a wise call on his part! In 24 hours we should no know one way or the other!