Good Monday, everyone. We have much better weather on the way to Kentucky and surrounding states today. This comes after a historic tornado outbreak devastated areas from western Kentucky through Illinois and Indiana. Folks across central and eastern Kentucky can thank their lucky stars the clouds and rain were around for most of the day. That helped stabilize the atmosphere just enough to keep the storms from going crazy in these areas.
Where do we go from here? The arctic blast I had targeted behind this system has been delayed a few days, but looks to arrive by the coming weekend. This happens as the overall pattern transitions toward on that features a rocking start to winter for much of the country over the next 2-3 weeks.
Moisture will increase by Thursday as some showers work in from the west and southwest ahead of another arctic front.
The front arrives by later Friday into Saturday and that has a ton of frigid air behind it. The models bleed this cold air in here over the weekend. Many of them try to develop some overrunning precipitation that may be in the form of rain and a mix for some. You see the setup on the European Model before the bottom falls out…
The GFS has highs in the 20s for Sunday…
This may set the stage for a few more systems to try to follow that temperature gradient. With cold air in place, the European Model snowfall forecast for the next 10 days is impressive…
Just use that as a guide that the model is seeing the potential for cold and snow across much of the country. There are signs of a winter storm system developing around the Thanksgiving holiday period somewhere in the east.
Blocking continues to slowly evolve and is forecast to really kick in by the time we say hello to December. The GFS Ensembles show massive blocking from the west coast trying to link up with blocking from Greenland…
That’s could set the stage for some serious cold shots into the eastern half of the country.
Have a great day and take care.
Well –
Let’s hope the severe thunderstorms are OVER at least until next Spring……. those tornadoes were NO JOKE!
It thankfully looks like no lives were lost in Kentucky and Tennessee. But Illinois was not as lucky, including at least two fatalities just across the river from Paducah KY 🙁 .
NWS Paducah has a lot of storm surveys to do. NWS Louisville will conduct at least one survey (in Butler County KY). My wife and I were with her family in Bowling Green as that Butler County storm came close to us. It looked really eerie to our north while above us was partially clear skies but the clouds at different heights were going in different directions!!! A good indication of the shear that was going on.
Perhaps yesterday was a price we paid for having an unusually calm spring severe wx season. Anyway, let’s indeed hope the next few months won’t be like January 2012 which had a couple of out-of-season tornadoes in our area.
THANK GOD!!
Winter talk!! Seriously though, prayers going out to those who were affected by the tornadoes today. They definitely need it. I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy.
Chris, I am loving the part for the snow in the coming weeks. Hopefully it stays this way or improves by dropping more snow on us. I would love to make a little cash off my nieghbors for shovling snow.
Chris I’m still waiting on that winter forecast…..
Most likely will be waiting a while. But now that you mentioned it if I remember he did say something about it being out the 18th
Yes, folks. All of us weather weenies have to be patient 😉 CB is taking great care to provide the best winter outlook he can. It takes years of skill, knowledge, experience, some intuition, etc. Again, patience! He will spill the beans only when he is ready.
……..Hey CB, hurry up and give us your best spring outlook 😛 ….Come on, what will next spring’s t-storm season be like?!! 🙂
I did find this Marsha its not much but it is what it is
http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Chris-Baileys-winter-forecast-more-snow-colder-temperatures-180055231.html
That is from last year that did not prove to be too accurate. In CB’s defense, his forecast was sound based on the data and historic references to correlate with. It just turned out to be a big dud for snow. The forecast outlook made sense, but mother nature went another very “meh” direction.
Lots of very cold air in Canada hopefully some moisture can meet up with this when it arrives in KY?
Thanks Chris. Wow! What a difference a day makes, huh? I feel for those who were hit with the devastating tornadoes yesterday. We were really lucky to get rain early yesterday, as it helped to stabilize the atmosphere. Many were not so lucky. Our weather is much improved today. Sounds like Thanksgiving week may get interesting. Hmmm….wonder if the neighbors could deal with my getting outside decorations up before the temp drops this weekend? Even more, wonder if my hubby could deal with getting them out of the attic and helping me get them up before the weekend….stay tuned! 😉 Have a great Monday, everyone.
very beautiful day. but it seemed to me that the moon didn’t come up exactly where it usually does. Did anyone else notice that?