Good Wednesday, folks. Arctic air is poised to surge into the bluegrass state this weekend and is likely to unleash an early start to winter. That is just in time for the busy Thanksgiving travel week just around the corner. Before the temp drop… we have a lot of raindrops that will be falling.

The short term weather is pretty simple. A mix of sun and clouds will be with us today with readings into the 50-55 degree range for many. Clouds will increase on Thursday as readings top out in the 50s. A couple of showers may work in before the day is over.

The rain will really increase on Friday and will become heavy at times. Rain totals of a half to an inch and a half will be possible through Friday night. Winds will be rather gusty, making for a very ugly weather day.

The arctic air arrives early Saturday morning and may produce a few flakes on the back edge of the departing rain shield. Strong northwesterly winds will continue to push arctic air in here as temps drop through the 30s during the day. Check this out…

GFS 2That’s some serious cold air! A few snow flurries will be possible into Sunday with lows in the upper teens and highs from the upper 20s to low 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder than what your thermometer shows.

For the past week, I’ve been talking about the pattern being favorable for a winter storm to develop across the eastern part of the country. The models have been pointing in this direction and continue to do so. They take a storm system from the southwest and roll it across the gulf states then up the east coast. The GFS is now latching on to this idea…

GFS

As is… the model brings a swath of light snow across parts of the state from Tuesday into Wednesday as another round of arctic cold pushes in behind it for Thanksgiving Day…

GFS 3

The new European has an even bigger storm and has more of a winter threat here…

Euro

As always… it will be about the track of the low. Wait… did I just say that about a storm before Thanksgiving? 😉

I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.