Good Friday, snow and cold lovers. We have a pattern that should make a lot of you happy campers over the next few weeks. The wintry action gets started after today with a blast of arctic air for the weekend. That will be followed up by a developing winter storm that will impact much of the eastern half of the country before Thanksgiving.
Let’s start with today and move forward…
Occasional showers will be around today as a cold front pushes across the state. Temps will be in the 50s ahead of the front and will drop rapidly through the 40s and into the upper 30s by late this evening in the north and west. By Saturday morning, much of the area will be in the low to mid 30s.
Clouds will still be around and there could be a flurry or two flying by. The real surge of arctic temps shoots in during the late afternoon and evening. That will send temps into the low and mid 20s during Saturday evening. Upper teens will show up by Sunday morning. Some flurries may be noted on Sunday as temps struggle to get to the freezing mark. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder all weekend long.
The storm system to keep a close eye on moves our way by Tuesday and this storm could become a monster as it works from the Gulf and then up the east coast. The GFS is now seeing this much better and has a similar look to the rest of the models…
The GFS Goes on to bomb that storm out along the New England coast. Here’s the snowfall forecast from that run…
Again… the model is just now starting to get a handle on the situation and is playing catch up to the European and Canadian. Speaking of the Canadian, it has a much broader and heavier snow shield…
The stronger the storm, the better the shot we have at getting accumulating snow from Tuesday into Wednesday. If it turns out to be weaker, that would lessen our chances of getting much more than a few flakes.
As it stands now… my annual Planes, Trains and Automobiles post may be a real life scenario for millions of Thanksgiving travelers.
Speaking of Thanksgiving… it looks super cold with low 30s for highs and teens for lows. The last two sub 40 Thanksgiving Days in Lexington? 2002 and 1989… both were in my analog list for the winter ahead.
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
December of 1989 was about the coldest stretch of weather I can ever remember.
Yes it was. I remember my son being a baby and not wanting to take him out!
Excited about all the fun & games ahead Chris!! Will be checking the blog often this weekend.
I am SO loving the snow talk!
Chris,when will you be giving your winter forecast? Thanks for all you do.
http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Chris-Baileys-Winter-Weather-Forecast-232728561.html
CB already did (on Friday).
But you can go to the WKYT website to watch a replay.
Whoops, I meant to say CB did his winter outlook Wed evening (Nov 20).
Looks like the oldest video on the site is from Thursday, so that’s not available anymore. In the past, the winter outlook was a big promoted event on the blog here.
Bah, nvm it’s up on YouTube ( I missed the Wed update). The winter outlook debuts on the corporate blog, didn’t realize that.
Let’s stay hopeful!
Even Dallas/Ft Worth is now under a Winter Storm Watch for the storm that may get us Tuesday evening!
As usual Louisville and probably Lexington will miss the brunt of the storm. I doubt this storm will track further north. We are the Chicago Cubs when it comes to accumulating snow.
Thanks Chris. Sounds like winter is going to make an early appearance around here. I guess we shouldn’t really be surprised since we have had wacky weather for the past year or so, with seasons getting mixed up.(remember the 80s in February last year?) And the late warming
we had this year. IF an early blasé of winter means we have a better chance of getting a good snow, than I am all for it! We really have not seen one in my neck of the woods for quite some time. Would really be nice to see. Guess we will have to wait and see how it plays out. One this I did notice on the snowfall map from the Canadian model that the snow band stays more southerly, and Ohio and places that usually get it are POSSIBLY going to not get it this time. One can only hope. Have a great Friday, everyone, and thanks again Chris, for all you do.
I’m in wait and see mode as the model scars from past winters are to deep for me to excited, I will say it looks like east KY has the best chance at seeing a decent early season snowstorm! Lets all cross our fingers and hope the models play fair??
“Model scars” is good. IBIWISI
Eye candy & lots of it…..just remember not to eat too much of it or it will make you sick!!
Latest GFS went “wide right”…Track went more south..One of many more solutions to come for our pre-T-day system…Euro run should be interesting…
Its odd when the desert southwest gets slammed with a winter storm and we can’t squeeze out more than a dusting..
Its been awhile, but first: WHO DEY!! we are 7-4 I will take it!
Weather: Yes, its cold early, but I the pattern with snow will have to change/I need to see it, before I think anything will happen this entire winter. I have a feeling its going to be same old dance-same old song. Yes, SW (Texas) gets snow, and we wont! Far south we miss, to north we get rain. I have heard it way to many times over the past 10+ years.
But heck, strangers things could happen…..like the Bengals winning a playoff game this year!!!!
I’ve notice the southwest has been getting lots of winter storms the past few years, Could be a bad sign since we’ve gotten very little the last few winters?
Nothing matters yet. Winter storm models are simply guess-casting. You really have to just “now-cast”. We have even had storms on top of us that bust (dry air or something…). I love looking at the forecasts and models but have absolutely made the switch to “IBIWISI”.
You are right about models, I’ve lived thru 50 years of winters in KY and have seen winter storm warnings produce less than a dusting of snow and predicted dusting become 2 feet of snow!
I guess we should just enjoy the ride!
Central Texas already getting winter wx. Presently snowing in San Angelo, a city that hardly gets snow even in January. Austin already down to 40 degrees.
A bit further north into the panhandle, Lubbock is getting freezing rain. Wouldn’t wish an ice storm on any worst enemy!
Seems past “eye candy storms” were when the storm wasn’t over land and if I’m right this system is out west heading this way. Shouldn’t models be somewhat accurate with it being over land? Just asking
Someone with better knowledge can chip in, but seems I recall that part of the problem with these more southernly systems is limited radiosonde data from Mexico.