Good Tuesday everyone and welcome to the frozen tundra of Kentucky. Our little taste of what life is like well to our north has a few more days before the action kicks back up by the weekend. We have a big winter storm that will take aim on the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and northeast from Saturday through Monday. That will be followed by a major arctic outbreak.
In the short term… it’s more arctic cold temps and snow showers and squalls today. The greatest concentration of the snows will again be across eastern and southeastern Kentucky. It is this part of the state that should pick up more in the way of light accumulations. That said… any one area that gets under a stronger snow shower can pick up a quick coating to an inch. Radar will continue to show these bands right on through the evening hours…
The arctic air today means temps will be very close to what we had for Monday. Highs will generally run in the low 20s with a few spots hanging in the high teens. Western Kentucky will see upper 20s to low 30s. Factor in the winds and you our readings will feel at or below 0 at times… especially in the morning hours.
Current Temps
Wind Chill
Highs for Wednesday will continue to run in the 20s as our snow showers and flurries finally wind down. Lows the next few mornings will head into the low teens with a few of the cold spots hitting the high single digits.
A weak system now looks to pass to our north Friday with only a small chance for some early day flakes across the north. All eyes will then be on the weekend and what looks to be a major storm for much of the eastern half of the country.
There are a lot of options for the first part of the storm for Saturday. There is really only one option for Sunday into Monday and that option is for snow and bitterly cold temps.
Saturday looks to be the wild card in all this. One low will work toward the region from the southwest friday night through Saturday. As I see it…this storm can do one of three things…
1. It can strengthen all the way to the Great Lakes as another low cranks to our southeast. 2. It can work into the lower Ohio Valley before weakening out fairly quickly as the secondary low across the mid atlantic takes over. 3. It can sense the blocking in place and heads more west to east across Kentucky and Tennessee the REALLY cranking as it turns the corner up the east slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.
The overnight run of the GFS is trying to take the more southern route Option 3 with the storm…
The GFS Ensembles are taking Option 2…
There have been several other computer model runs taking Option 1 with a strong low all the way into the lakes. Any of the scenarios result in snow Sunday then snow squalls into Monday and Tuesday with bitterly cold temps.
I will have another update on the weekend storm coming later this afternoon so make sure to check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Select Page
CHRIS……..You’re really pumping out a lot of posts …..LOL
I will now remark on some comments made on the last post that I just read.
BUBBA/Tommy…….Do you honestly think that Lexington KY has NEVER experienced a snow drought like the one we were in the past eleven years?? I guarantee you that it has, perhaps not in recent history but before records were being kept; maybe even LONGER……Since we know the weather cycles who knows what is going to happen……We could have another repeat of the mess we have dealt with the in the past eleven, but we may not…..If it makes you feel better by all means, let us have your thoughts…..I know this, since I have lived here I have NEVER seen it get this cold this early and have this early of snow that STAYS on the ground mind you :)……….Wouldn’t it be funny if it stayed like this all winter……After all the chatter about a warm up in January…….Not that that will happen but it would still be comedy gold.
Mark Lex couldn’t have said it better! All things cycle. After all stirrup pants are back in stores!! =) Bring on the old school snows!!
I agree, being a “little older” myself had having gone through several cycles personally haha..I’ve also witnessed the cycling of numerous things including weather..and yes snowlover (the original) even styles 🙂 so who knows…I do know that it is bitterly cold this morning in Northern Rowan/Fleming county and is snowing..It’s been too many years for me to remember the last time December has been like this. Typically I would be able to be outside doing some early winter clean up in the yard..so only time will really tell. Here’s hoping for a good “old fashion” winter!!
Here’s a point that I do not believe anyone has mentioned to date about this weekend… cold air has a habit of being a tad bit stubborn. I don’t claim to know a thing about the weather other than what I have learned through military courses, weather spotter classes and what I have picked up on this site… I say regardless of the track of the low pressure, the cold air will not want to go anywhere quick at the lower levels… and we all know what that means. A quick change over to snow with the cold air on the wrap around and we have ice to snow. Any thoughts from Chris, Mitch, WXMan, Neil or M.J. would be appreciated.
Have an awesome Tuesday everyone!
December 89 was like this and then we had good snow events into February.
I am not projecting the weather, but only pointing out what has happened with these systems with artic air on the back-end. Only north KY has gotten any action form those for a long time. Maybe it changes this weekend?
I suggest it is a coin flip right now, which is at least better than previous chances (50/50, rather than 10/90).
Not to be too selfish, but I have a big driveway, so not too keen on a mega-snow anyways 😉 The last mega-snow we had (98) I lucked out and a man charged me $20 to clear the driveway with his Bobcat. BEST money spent in a long time 🙂 Would have been stuck a few days if not.
Positive spin is seems non-north KY has a 50/50 shot of not being mainly mix and cold rain for Saturday. Further south, the odds slip.
Still CB states we should still get some snow, regardless. Local mets are not mentioning anthing but a mix and no artic temps for next week.
Local mets seem to not make much effort beyond 48 hours and based on last Friday, they do not even get that very right. Local mets were calling for 1.5″ max for the area.
Baby its cold outside…snow on the ground for almost 5 days straight…maybe more snow coming soon..its great!!! Everyone enjoy in the momemt!
I know it is early but folks are throwing around words like ‘potential big snow event’ for this wknd. Not trying to pin anyone down but what kind of general ball park accumulation totals are we looking at. I’m in Madison County near the river.
pinpoint…hahaha, nobody will do that until friday night…
latest returns says F further SE track of the storm. ohio river north going to get a mammer JOB from the weekend STORM.
I am back to a few days ago, and agree with BAILEY, the WRAP AROUND with this storm going be very NICE by the looks of the latest data.
I wonder the same here in Johnson County. My questions are about the probability of East Ky getting in on the storm and what accumulations are possible. Any experts out there chime in 🙂
I’m going out on a limb and predicting we will all need this this Sun and Mon. (Disclaimer: My predictions mean absolutely nothing 🙂 )
Google Dakota snow-blade. I saw a guy using one to shovel sidewalks at the hospital and it was amazing how easy it looked. Went over and asked if I could try it and it was simple. A little steep in price but I think one of the neatest snow shovels around.
Root cause for us getting missed for bigger snows from these previous “Arctic back-end” events is that the warm air was underestimated leading into it. If our temps go above forecast, that would suggest Saturday will be mainly a mix for all but north KY and then more cold rain further south.
For whatever reason, our standard procedure is to not have enough cold air for most of the precipitation and then we get the wrap-around when the air is cold.
Classic old school was we got slammed AND got the wrap-around as well 🙂
Funny how local mets are more cautious now. Still not hearing a peep from any of them yet. What CB is talking about is in another realm from local mets one week outlooks.
I recall they did the same up until last Friday too…. If tax money were going to the mets, I would consider a revolt! 😉
Seems usual set up for us. Will the cold air get here along with the bulk of the moisture, or will north KY get the big snow (main course) and everybody else the wrap-arounds (left overs)?
Mark points out the super cold air right now, which is at least something. Still seems odd that local mets have not mentioned anything and have a very normal one week outlook.
I recall last week CB talked about the snow and our local mets dropped the ball stating max of 1.5″- as late as Friday night.
Will this be another ball dropper for local mets?
Arctic air and a big snow…. If we get a good snow, folks should clear as much as they can before the cold air set in. Backs will make a collective groan if not 😉
Some good reading:
http://wsbradio.com/blogs/kirk_mellishs_weather_commentary/
pinpoint…hahaha, nobody will do that until friday night…
I’m not sure exactly where the track will be, but I think the GFS ensemble is likely to be closer to right. According to DT, the MJO is moving into phases 4 and 5 and that favors an Ohio Valley track. I don’t see a lake cutter and I don’t think we’ll be lucky enough to see a KY/TN border track.
I do think the overall pattern suggests storm tracks which move just west of the Appalachians. We saw a storm like that in early Novemeber.
yea the drought is bad. i am out of school now and chillin here but live in covington right now. had enough of the dome,
tri-state cincy area gets snow by the feet according to 6z gfs!!! it’ll change i know but its fun to look at…i still favor lakes cutter to wrap around flurries.
wayy to early to know. but i’d bet alot of us go rain to wrap around snow flurries.
At stormvista.com, DT says the KY/TN border track is not going to happen. He also said the 6Z is out to lunch. DT’s been wrong before, but he’s been pretty vociferous this won’t get pushed south. Just the typical GFS error I guess.
You got all the snow last year when did you get the snow dome lol????? Just messing with ya,but you did lol!!!!!!!
In my opinion, with the 12Z run of GFS coming in now and maintaining consistency, I believe that blizzard conditions may be a possibility for some of our border states this weekend. And I believe that KY may see another covering of snow as well. Chris is onto something here…
I think Tommy is in school up in north KY, so means he is away from the “D” word when up there.
Seems we may have same set up as previous events. North KY could get a big snow and us other folks will get the trailing stuff and maybe a few inches.
No national or regional mets checked so far show a track over us that suggests a big event for all but perhaps the north.
Nothing now except to wait and see if CB sees the same thing, or suggests a more southerly solution and goes against the grain of the other mets. He has and has been correct a few times before 😉
Good example was last weekend. CB seems to be the only met calling for what we got. The others adjusted ON THE DAY OF THE EVENT.
Starting to look like the majority of the moisture will fall as rain, with a brief changeover to snow on the backside. But there will also be another few days of N.W. Slope bringing in some accumulating snow showers.
Boy am I so happy we have CB….Just watched the local weather and man do I miss JB… It’s just not the same…. No excitement there anymore… Thanks CB for all you do!!! Good luck with the exams…
This storm has horrible timing. Next week we’ve got finals here at Morehead State…if it hits hard, I see a lot of people coming in the week after to make up their finals somehow. It’s also something I don’t want to walk to class in.
Oops got you confused with someone else taking exams..lol
gee we need soem snow been awhile since we had some….like one year;) just rubbing it in folks!
Sure would be nice not to get the usual cold rain mix, followed by snow at the tail end of the arctic-level system. If it is, not seeing any information by other mets (local or regional).
local mets in cinti calling for storm starting this sat night into sunday!
latest GFS coming around to the EURO with it looking like a GREAT LAKES storm.
looking like the EURO might be the model that be right all along.
Heads, tails, no heads, wait a minute, tails- no heads, come on you cheated, do it over that didn’t count, OK for real-heads,,I knew it was tails all along……..wait for it, wait for it, ok heads,,,who cares, just flip the coin…its gonna land where it lands.
Was hoping for a nice storm to settle in tonight to hold off my finals. Maybe if I finish my weather-machine in time…
I have no idea what you Weather heads are saying. Is it going to snow this weekend or not? haha
The LMK NWS just updated their FD and they said it would take the northerly track and with an inch or less total accumulation but I am still gonna hope it takes a southerly track for more snow!
thats because paducah nws did the discussion for lville today, am i correct MJ?
Ok Thanks Chris! I really hope we get some good snows out of the weekend storm! 🙂
Wow nice information you have shared here. Actually Google made searching of information easy on any topic. Well keep it up and post more interesting blogs