Good evening to one and all. I wanted to start talking more about the storm coming this weekend as it is likely to be a monster for much of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the northeast. We just have to fine tune the details as we get closer.
There are a lot of options on the table for the first part of the storm for Saturday. There is really only one option for Sunday into Monday and that option is for snow and bitterly cold temps.
Saturday is the wild card in all this. One low will work toward the region from the southwest friday night through Saturday. This storm can do one of three things. 1. It can strengthen all the way to the Great Lakes as another low cranks to our southeast. 2. It can work into the lower Ohio Valley before weakening out fairly quickly as the secondary low across the Carolinas takes over. 3. It can sense the blocking in place and heads more west to east across Kentucky and Tennessee the REALLY cranking as it turns the corner up the coast.
No matter the option listed above… Sunday into early next week will see snow taking over with the potential for some serious wrap around snowfall to be followed by an amazing amount of snow squalls into the middle of the week. The cold will be something to behold as arctic air plunges in.
Look at the latest run of the European Model for Sunday into Monday…
Wow! That is a heck of a cold and snowy pattern around here. That model is one that takes the first low all the way into the great lakes and you can see how, even with that track, it would bring us snow, wind and cold.
The new GFS is similar…
Again… WOW!
If the models are correct with the strength of this storm and the amount of arctic air diving in here… regardless of the track of the low… this area is likely to get in on some decent snows.
If nothing else… this is going to be a lot of fun to track as the option of a monster storm is on the table.
Full update coming your way later tonight. Take care.
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Thanks, Chris. Gonna be a lot of fun tracking this one. Will be looking forward to each of your updates.
Hey Chris! I’m not so great with understanding some of these maps. Just wondering what kind of guesstimate can you give for this system for Harlan County?? We have plans for our anniversary for the weekend but I don’t wanna get snowed in away from my kids. Any help would be appreciated.
bitter cold probably well below zero coming for sure but any snows over the 1-3 inch range i would highly doubt. seen this scenario many times before. but we can only hope.
Just figured it up real quick, and using LEX normals we are running 13 degrees below average for the month at my house. We are clearly seeing a total reversal of what we had during late Summer/Fall, which is exactly what I expected.
True, for the last 12 years, these real cold events have been prefaced by misses or light snows and dry slots abound.
Still, 1993/94 (long time ago) was an example of us getting smacked by over a foot of snow and THEN the cold set in with sub zero weather (not counting wind chill) for several days. It was so cold that if you did not shovel the snow from your drive or walkway- foggettabouutitt’ since the snow was almost like cement after the cold.
I hear ya. Hope in one hand and —- in the other and see which one fills up first. Better get the hand sanatizer is all I can say. Cudos to Chris for hitting this pattern of cold so early in the season. Hope his end of season outlook with an warmer mid and late winter is spot on too. In somerset we are sick and tired of getting hosed on every snow event that hits ky. This winter after winter of cold rain followed by a bitter cold dusting aint worth it. Id rather track spring storms then deal with another cold, wet, and depressing winter. The snow dome’s ground zero is without a doubt pulaski county.
Man if that storm did happen to track due east Chris will sure be a happy dude. 🙂 I told ya’ his Winter forecast wouldn’t be out until Christmas. Haha… just poking fun. So it’s stupid cold outside, might as well hope for a snowstorm!
Why do you all keep thinking the snowdome is still in place? Last winter was the worst winter we had in Pike Co. in years. I know we had around 18 inches last December 18th and then we had several days of back to back snow then over a foot again in Janurary. I took several pics last winter of my Jeep pushing snow over the front bumper. And here we have already had 5 inches last Saturday and it has been snowing since. I think the snowdome is gone…
I believe the snowdome is usually referred to the more central parts of the state….someone correct me if I’m wrong.
If there is a snow dome, it is up here in Louisville. I can’t count the number of times these systems move in and completely fall apart as they hit the Lou. metro area only blow back up after it passes. It is either no snow or rain….THINK SNOW!!!! as JB would say…
heading into dec 2000 talk now.
The “D” word is more a mid to south central KY thing.
In the past 12 years, east KY has got smacked a few times. No long term “D” word for you 😉
Ryan, stop bragging. 🙂
Chris, what are your thoughts on the lake effect snow for tonight and tomorrow across eastern southeastern ky? Is it about to wrap up or can some places still expect an additional inch or two?
Chris,
What are your thoughts on the remaining moisture for tonight and tomorrow? Is it about to wrap up or can we expect an additional inch or two in eastern ky.?
Chris,
Thoughts on the leftover moisture tonight and tomorrow.
Can we expect any additional accumulation?
Thoughts on the leftover moisture tonight and tomorrow.
Can eastern ky. expect an inch or two of additional accumulation?
But, we pretty much all got a good snow last year 🙂
Exception being the precip’ prior to these big artic events. Please correct me if wrong, but all but north KY have missed big big snows from these events for about or over 12 years now.
No snowdome in Leslie County!…upslope kicked into full gear last several days…more upslope snow showers tonight!!..at least 5 inches of snow over the course of the last several days..
Word!
the 00z gfs run while further south and east than previous runs has support from the dgex and ensemble members, this could be an alternative to the favored lakes cutter track.
Is that good, or bad, for monster snow Mitch?
What a huge change in the 00z gfs. Apps runner now. Whole state gets in on snow. Heaviest amounts in a line from southwest corner up to Cincinnati. 6-8 inches in this area, great for me. Eastern Kentucky has to deal with rain to start and cuts down on totals 1-3 inches. Wait and see 12z tomorrow to see if this is a trend with an apps runner.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_138l.gif
that run shows a snowstorm from western TN into alot of ky and eastern ohio…very interesting. as we know still alot to be sorted out but whoever gets on the nw side of this storm is going to be measuring snow by the feet probably.
i know its going to be a biggie for someone but, i am still liking original idea of missouri into the lakes, the gfs is known for waffling.
I agree with you. Until we see some more runs heading south, I am inclined to think this thing is heading to the lakes. But on the bright side with extremely cold air on the back side, any lingering moisture will be subject to high snow ratios.
I attempted about 6 post earlier and all of them went to moderation heaven but somehow two of my post must have got the boot because they appeared in the comment section.
come on bubba we never get any snow love!;)