Good Saturday and welcome to a frigid weekend. Arctic air arrives right on cue today and will set the stage for a few days straight out of January. Wait… a few days? Heck… the pattern through Thanksgiving week looks the part and may produce wintry weather for holiday travelers.
The arctic boundary arrives by early afternoon with gusty winds and crashing temps behind it. Readings will hit the upper 30s and low 40s ahead of the front and then fall into the 20s by early evening. Winds will gust up and a few snow flurries will be possible into the evening.
Gusty winds will combine with lows in the teens to produce wind chills that may drop toward single digits at times into Sunday morning. Wow. Sunday afternoon will see a mix of sun and clouds with temps in the low 30s. It will never feel that warm because of the gusty winds. A stray snowflake may be noted.
This leads us into a cold Thanksgiving week and all eyes will be on a storm rolling out of Texas this weekend. This low will work across the Gulf states before turning the corner up the east coast. The GFS shows a different solution with each run and that’s why I discard it so much in the winter months. It should settle down a bit by Sunday.
The Canadian Model has been fairly steady with this storm in recent days…
Here’s the snowfall forecast from that run…
The UKMET shows a similar evolution and track with this storm…
The storm is just getting to within range of the NAM, but the model looks like it will go in a similar direction to what you see above…
The latest run of the European Model is similar with the storm, but it looks too strung out along the east coast. This is likely due to the bias of the model with being too slow in ejecting energy from the southwest…
I suspect the European will overcome that bias in the next few runs.
What does it all mean for us? It means we have a real shot at getting in on some snow from Tuesday into early Wednesday. Will there be enough to get something on the ground where you live? It’s too early to tell, but the potential is there.
I will update things later. Make it a great day and take care.
Let the fun and games begin! Sounds like someone is going to get some snow out of this thing. At least it is going to feel like Christmas to help all those Black Friday shoppers get in the mood. Unfortunately, I will be working. Oh well. Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out. Thanks Chris . Everyone have a great Saturday and GO CATS!!!
Geez tired of watching storms fizz out the closer they get. Who actually produces these models? They are so predictable….monster storms a week down the road, then they backtrack all the way to the cold rain at 35 degree scenario we are so used to.
or go around us. bring on the mighty clipper because that’s about the only chance we have for a 2 inch snowfall.
The latest run of the nam came in puts a swath of snow for south west ky to north central ky of 4 to 6 inches. I truly doubt that but its worth keeping a eye on especially with the nam it tends to be more of the accurate model the closer we get. So it might be on to something. Just one model run time will tell.
Today is actually turning out to be a nice day. Sun is shining, really no wind to speak of, temp currently 39. Much nicer than the 50’s and drizzle yesterday, in my opinion.
Are you still mowing over in Lburg! 😉
I mowed today!!!
Euro looks like a apps runner…
Looks like we will get a small window for snow on Tuesday/Wednesday period then cold and DRY! The moisture is still afraid of the cold air when it comes to KY! UGGGGGGG!
Some eye candy…
http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013112312/nc/ecmwf_snowdepth_nc_20.png
European Snowfall
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=209235
I will say i think those snow totals are way overdone…But hey,who knows…Still will not get any hopes up until monday…Maybe model will know for sure by then…
beautiful day for leaf raking. does feel like it’s getting colder.
we’re fired up for even the possibility of snow….
go cats!!!
A few snow showers developing in Indiana and Ohio, some lucky folks in east KY might get one tonight??
WKYT showing snow squall alert for northern counties. Go south, young squall!
Winter Storm Watches are getting closer to our area, folks! Much of southwest to central Arkansas now under Winter Storm Watch, including on the doorsteps of Little Rock.
Parts of Texas and Arkansas could be hit by a nasty ice storm. But at least at this time, much of Kentucky may escape any larger issues with freezing rain. Unfortunately, areas of east Tennessee may not be so lucky, which is something to keep in mind for those traveling through or to the area before Thanksgiving.
PS: Blizzard Tim, you were worried about your area not getting any winter wx. Unfortunately, you may have to put up with some ice 😉 .