Good Saturday afternoon, gang. Arctic air is blowing into the state as I type and this will send wind chills spiraling toward the upper single digits late evening and overnight. A couple of flurries may also find their way into the region.
The big weather story continues to be the storm potential for Tuesday and Wednesday. Every model not named the GFS (wish I had a dollar for every time I’ve typed that) has a big storm rolling across the south and up the east coast. The European and Canadian Models have been the most steady of the bunch.
The latest European Model is a pretty solid hit around here…
That’s some good wind potential as the low passes by to our east. Here’s the snowfall map from that run…
The Canadian Model has a similar solution…
It actually shows a little more snow than the European Model…
This bad boy is now within range of the NAM and the model is going wild with the storm…
If the above models are still looking the same at this time tomorrow… then we the threat level will be thrown out. As we all know, 24 hours in the world of weather models is a long, long, long time. Let’s remember this is NOVEMBER and the fact we are talking about this type of a storm is impressive.
BTW… there’s a decent signal for another storm during the first week of December. 🙂
Take care.
Looks like eastern ky. May get most of it from what I can see. ;(
Looks that way for now, for snow anyway. It will be interesting to see what the updated model runs show.
But it could be worse; the worst of any freezing rain for our area may stay in east Tennessee. Even more trecherous icing conditions could happen in parts of Texas and Arkansas.
The average of the models shows most of Kentucky with a significant snow cover. System has to pan out though and as CB said, models this far out are pure estimates (almost a guess).
I can say that regardless of what happens, this system looks far more interesting of having a “chance” of panning out than any last winter. Warm air was our constant snow enemy and understated in the models on a near constant basis (hence they were wrong a lot for this region).
Lexington has already recorded 0.4 inches of snow this month. Another 2.5 inches puts this November into the Top 10.
Looks like December is shaping up to be colder than normal also…Don’t know what’s going on in the pacific but it looks “Marvelous” hopes it stays this way..Looks like an active southern stream also..Rolo just may get his old school before December is gone..
Wind picking up and temps dropping fast in Frankfort, would be nice to see some snow with this, I’m rooting for the Nam!
Already some 29 degree readings for northern KY. Still some mid 40s for southern KY and into TN which of course won’t last much longer.
GFS and Euro still miles apart…Interesting to watch a battle of of the models to see who’s king…
LMK forecast discussion says this will be the “coldest air of the season.” Yet, they forecast lows around 20 for my area? I’ve already recorded 17 this month. Not sure how this is “the coldest air of the season.”
Worth keeping an eye on for sure. Could the Dome be starting to crack? Stay tuned everyone. Thanks Chris for the update. Looking forward to the next one already.
Bracing for disappointment
This is an “oldschool” pattern tracker, so this area has a decent shot if the systems of “olden times” (70’s though 90’s) were to represent a model for this potential event. And of course IF the system as showing now were to pan out.
The current composite (average) of the models has both the peanut butter (moisture) and chocolate (cold air) making a Reese’s Cup. Of course, Charlie Brown once again comes into mind from Halloween: “All I got was a rock”.
If (that word again) the models hold to this solution, we might possibly end up with more snow then all of us got all last winter. That of course is not hard to do, since we hardly got any 😉
“most of us”, not “all of us”. Some got some decent snow last year.
Optimism is a relative thing in this case 😉
Serious in that this looks better than any system last winter, since warm air was a constant killer for them. This has a chance of being different- if it pans out.
2 posts with a detectable edge of optimism. Obviously a Bubba imposter.
An edge? No – that was undeniable optimism (for Bubba)
It seems that BubbaG and I both may have a hint of optimism for this one. I do remember that when I was younger, we usually got real good snow when a storm system came the way this one is shaping up. Our best always came from the Texas corridor. Hmmm….BubbaG just might be on to something here! 😉
Have had some off and on snow flurries here since around 7 pm, winds are pretty gusty and temp is down to 31 deg!!!!! Would love to see some snow on the ground at Thanksgiving, We have already had our first SNOW here this season and it was Beautiful! looking forward to seeing several of those this winter!!!!
LOVE THE SNOW! I so much appreciate the time you put into the blog! Maybe this will be “the Big one”, a winter to remember! Thanks again!
Can’t help but feel kind of like Charlie Brown….when Lucy holds the football and then jerks it away just as he is getting ready to kick it….that nasty GFS will jerk this thing further east, even when we know that they usually trend west….signed document not notarized you know…..and all that jazz. 😉
We all know that in a few days, Bubba will do his usual pontificating so don’t anyone get your hopes up about what may or may not come.
GFS trending towards the Euro,Nam…Hopefully tomorrow runs will come in better..At least its starting to get the picture…