Good Sunday afternoon, gang. It’s clear that a developing winter storm will have a fairly high impact on the weather across Kentucky Tuesday into Wednesday. While the exact impact where you live remains a little fuzzy, travelers are going to have a slow go at it during this busy holiday period.
Here’s the early call for the breakdown of this storm…
I will adjust those maps as I get more confidence in the exact evolution of this storm. We have three chances at accumulating snows during this time.
1. A very light snowfall will be possible Monday night.
2. A system snowfall is a good bet from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Will it be very light or several inches? I suspect location will be the determining factor with that.
3. Snow showers and squalls on Wednesday may drop additional light accumulations.
Wednesday looks absolutely brutal in terms of cold and wind. The feel like temperatures may be in the single digits at times.
I will update things a little later today. Given the impact of this storm coming during the busiest travel period of the year… an upgrade to “threat” may be warranted.
Enjoy the arctic cold of today and take care.
Well it sure is cold.My sister in Law in Las Cruses NM got snow today that covered the Ground,and she is only a few minutes to the Mexican Border.I just wonder why we can’t seem to get the snow when they can.Is it our location?I would really love for someone to do a study about Ky and the lack of snow.Well here is hoping for our luck to change this year.Thanks Chris for all you do.
Chris do you think the mix is going to hurt us for snow in Se Ky? Thank you.
Im not Chris but if mis is being discussed it will ne nothing but a mess elevation may be your friend though Crystal
Thanks Andy.I cant get over my sis in law getting snow in NM and we have such a time getting it here.I hope so much for snow,but all we can do is wait and see.
I love me some mix
Warm air should not be the downer for this, so still seems a better chance than all of last winter. Does not mean it will pan out, but still a chance for something. If there is snow on the ground on Thursday, you Black Friday line campers better wear two sets of longjohns. Brrrrr!
I’m driving from Owensboro to Cleveland OH Friday. If we don’t see snow here, hopefully I’ll see plenty up there! 🙂
We’re headed south to Cleveland TN (near Chattanooga) on either Tue or Wed, largely depending on the wx. Might have some freezing rain to contend with in TN ;( . Hopefully the icing will be mainly at the higher elevations, but looks like valley areas will not be totally immune. Anxiously awaiting model updates 😉 .
hopefully the 00z models will settle this. hopefully they will have a near unanimous decision on the track of the storm
Well it looks like someone is going to get snow. Just wonder who…..hopefully we will all get to see some. Glad of the southern track though as my daughter and her hubby are headed for northern Ohio for Thanksgiving. We will be staying local, for which I am thankful. Looking forward tinge next update. Thanks Chris, for all you do.
Neither Paducah or Louisville NWS afternoon discussions impressed with snow chances 🙁
Maybe because southern Indiana isn’t expected to get much? 😉
weather channel must be using the GFS because they don’t agree either.
The SPC map 4 inch snows are shifting further east, sucks for most of central KY, not surprised though!
Jackson says southeast ky should see 6-9 hour window of heavy wet snow Tues. night – Wed. morning.. 2-6 inches..
it might jog enough West where Louisville might pick up a couple of inches. I’ve ever had much faith in this storm for Louisville and points west.
C H R I S
If the mesonet was 26 degrees while at the same time the BGA was 30………..something is DEFINITELY wrong. I remember a time when it was actually the opposite……The airport would always be a little colder than the mesonet…..
IBIWISI
Just returned from a weekend backpacking trip to the Red River Gorge (Swift Camp Creek area). I can vouch for the fact that it was cold. Water bottles froze and “caned gas” didn’t work so well in the 20s or below… Hammocks with a tarp to block the wind, rain, snow and a sleeping map under the sleeping bag in the hammock keeps you warm though!
Let’s see how it plays out…
When I know it’s gonna get cold, I stick my gas in a sock and stuff it in one of my boots.
thanks for the update, Chris! looks like a decent shot at a little snow for some of us.
and yeah, it’s mighty cold for this early in the season….brrrrr.
The rolo snow meter is going off the charts. OLD SCHOOL, brought to you by the Legend.
This from the Jackson office just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside
IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD PUNCH NORTHWARD WITH THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAIN FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY EVENING. A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
Cold air and moisture is a very rare combo lately in KY during the winter months, when will the trend bend??
NWS just warmed up London low temp for Monday night to 34 degrees with rain/snow mix. Then an eventual changeover to snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Which model will they likely be sticking with? Are we likely to see last minute surprises with this one?
The NWS is practically married to the GFS in my opinion. You rarely hear anyone on the network talk about the NAM or Canadian models. I tend to favor the ECMWF, if I had to stick with just one. I think this storm has overachieved so far, so while it makes sense to be cautious considering we’re in November (i.e. climatology is against us), it’s a crapshoot at this point. I’m not sure how even moderate confidence can be achieved until tomorrow.
CB, will you be issuing a precip total map tomorrow or will this system be too insignificant?
NAM laying the smack down on eastern ky.
Where do you find NAM predicted amounts? I just saw the loop for the next several days, but is there more to see?
wxcaster.com, it shows nam and gfs run predictions.
thanks
Checking out the long list of links but having a hard time of where to go.
Rain, mix and then snow. What will the weight of those three things be this week? The models were biased with cold air last winter and were almost always wrong for snow, since turned out warmer “than expected” almost every time (if not all).
Would be nice to finally bust the infamous (to snow fans) trend we have had. I am surprised there has not been more of a mention about ice. The ground will be fairly cold this week. Not much time at all to build an ice coat.
Pending the usual model waffles, the average of the models still seems in favor of some snow and for some a significant amount.
The key of course is if CB goes into threat level.
Supposed to be driving from Charlotte, NC to Berea on Wed. Hmmm…wondering if I should go earlier or later or wait until Thurs. No snow! Lol