Good Monday everyone. We are coming off a very wintry weekend for most of the state as many areas picked up some decent snows. Now comes the cold and a taste of the arctic… complete with snow showers and snow squalls. We will break it all down for you and take a peak into the extended and what should be a big winter storm around us or on us this coming weekend.
We have some snows to worry about out there today. Northwesterly winds flowing across the Great Lakes will continue to send plumes of moisture our way. Combine that with a disturbance crossing the region today and you can get snow showers and snow squalls to ramp it up a notch. With high liquid to snow ratios… it won’t take much to produce heavy bursts of snows. These squalls can lay down quick accumulations and reduce visibilities to near zero at times. You can see these lake effect plumes here on the NAM…
The GFS shows something similar over the next few days and even brings the snow showers farther west today. Here is how much liquid precipitation the model is spitting out through Tuesday…
Fluff that up because of the cold air and you can get snow totals in the range of what I put out with my snow map I put out Sunday. Keep in mind… these are snow showers and squalls so what’s on the ground can have a pretty big range from one town to the next. ![]()
Track the flakes here…
How about the arctic chill? Well… highs in the low 20s today should not be a surprise if you have been reading this blog for a while. As a matter of fact… a few areas may struggle to get out of the upper teens for the north and east. Western ky will see temps up a few degrees with highs 20s to low 30s.
Winds will be very gusty today leading to feel like temps in the single digits. Brrrrrrrrrr
Track the temps and chill here…
Current Temps
Wind Chill
Highs Tuesday will be very similar to what we have today before recovering into the upper 20s for Wednesday. Lows the next few mornings will be well down into the teens. If we can get a night where skies clear… some single digit temps would be possible for areas that have snow on the ground.
Speaking of snow on the ground… look at how much of the country and northern hemisphere currently has snowcover…
That is pretty incredible and is well above normal! That is a great sign for the rest of December and perhaps for the rest of the winter as you can get some feedback going to help ensure cold temps around here.
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with that talk as we have plenty of action to track later this week and especially into the weekend and early next week. This may include a major winter storm taking aim at the Ohio Valley Saturday through Monday. It will be all about the track of the storm and the models have been all over the place.
With a fairly robust -NAO in place (blocking)… my early thoughts on the weekend are as follows…
– One clipper works through the Great Lakes Friday. This would bring a shot of some mix and snow to our region Thursday night and Friday.
– This is an important system to watch as it will have an impact on the track of the storm behind it. If this is a robust clipper… it should force the next storm farther south.
– Low pressure will be coming out of the plains states Saturday. This low should ride into the lower Ohio Valley bringing a swath of snow, rain and mix.
– The first low should weaken out as a deep trough continues to dive in behind it. The should spawn a strong low somewhere just to our southeast or east. This should become a major storm as it rides northward along the east slopes of the Appalachian mountains.
What does all that mean for us? Well… it says STAY TUNED! ![]()
I will have more updates later today so check back. Have a great Monday on the frozen tundra and take care.
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Snowpack, 14.7°F air temp., and a monthly avg. temp. that’s already several degrees below average. And we are still two weeks from the Winter Solstice. Yep… global warming and La Nina sure do make things boring around here, don’t they? 😉
Sun is out in Madison County.
It’s snowing big beautiful flakes in Hardin County (Elizabethtown/Ft Knox). It’s coming down steady and has covered some some things .
Temp is 18 degrees.
Thanks, Chris. So, you are thinking a big storm by weeks end? Then I hope Wednesday is ok….gotta make a trip to Lexington, and do NOT want to get stuck in any winter weather….we got snow yesterday nearly all day, but only got grassy areas and such white. Still, it was very pretty coming down.
Everyone be careful out there today, and stay warm and bundled up if you are outside! Looking forward to the next update, Chris. P.S. I think I am catching your nasty cold….. 😉
Wxman, you just never know….. 😉
Light snow in Perry County. More like flurries and C O L D!
Hey guys,
I wanted to repost my blog from December 1st. I was talking big snow a week ago. Here is my post from the 1st.
I wanted to stick my neck out 12 days and make a bet with the whole blog. Yes, including you Chris. I think this system is going to bring us the biggest first snow of the season. Since this blog is spread over a wide area, I thought this would be fun. On the December 13th, the person with the highest snow total wins bragging rights to the “highest 1st big snow challenge award”. Anyone up for this big December 13th showdown of the snowfall?
GFS is showing this “Snow Train” heading to Louisville
showing the snow train heading to nky too 🙂 i love the look of this thing!
It’s snowing in Richmond… but it doesn’t show up on radar. Are radar’s still down?
Along with this site, I like to read the thoughts of Dean Grubbs. You can see his work on the http://www.deanreport.blogspot.com. He focuses on the Raleigh area, but provides great national analysis.
A few weeks ago, he said in an email response to me that Louisville was favored for snow this winter because he felt the lows this year would move just west of the Appalachians. We had a big rain soaker two or three weeks ago which did just that and it reminded me of the March 2008 snowstorm track.
I’m not a big believer in the feedback of snowcover across the northern hemisphere, but I do pay attention to the PDO. In early 2008, it swung finally to the negative and our weather has been much colder and snowier ever since. I think that index will be a big help for years to come.
Here we go, the beginning of the the annual “its cold during Dec/Jan/Feb so global warming is obviously a ridiculous theory” posts. How I missed you during the Summer months…
global warming is abusrd, lets revert back to the 70’s when scientist were all about “global cooling” when will we learn, the earth has patterns! let it be
love it now, come weds/thurs it will be showing all rain! lol
lol allreadyis on 12z gfs but i dont buy it low wont go that far north we are in a blocking type pattern that isnt going to permit that.
Had a pretty decent squall blow through here a while ago. Wind is brutal and flurries now.
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY.
* SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES.
* WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING…SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND CREATE VERY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHARPLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
euro actually cuts more into the lakes, though I have to agree a lakes cutter makes little sense give the blocking, -AO, -NAO and a clipper on friday which would tend to dig the trough as well.
While you do have a -NAO, it is not a western Atlantic based one. It is more of a eastern based -NAO. Big difference. The clipper on Friday won’t help deepen the trough coming in from the weekend. The overall synoptic/global pattern favors a Great Lakes track at the moment.
Let it Be? We can’t let it be! What would we blame the hot weather on? What would we blame the cold weather on? What would we blame the flooding on? What would blame the droughts on? What would we blame tornadoes on? What would we blame the lack of tornadoes on? What would blame the earthquakes on? What would we blame the hurricanes on? What would we blame the lack of hurricanes on?
Study the science like I did, Bud. Then check back with us. 😉