Good Sunday everyone. Let me begin by saying a big thanks for all the snow and weather reports with the Saturday wintry blast. You guys rock! The clipper behaved according to the plan we laid out several days ago and it is always good to start off the winter season on a good forecasting note. Now we have the challenge of a heck of shot of arctic air and a prolonged period of snow showers and squalls that should lead to more accumulations.
Those snows will get started out there today as strong northwesterly winds deliver Great Lakes moisture into the region. This moisture will combine with several disturbances diving in to produces snow showers and squalls. These will be common across the eastern half of the state today through early Wednesday.
Some things to keep in mind…
– With very cold air moving in… we will maximize the snowfall ratios as it won’t take very much moisture at all to produce snow.
– The heaviest snow showers and squalls will reduce visibilites and lay down quick accumulations. Winds will be gusty and blow the fluffy snow around.
– The heaviest snows will fall across the east and southeast. Much lighter amounts will be noted across the central and western parts of the state.
Here is a rough estimate of the amount of new snow that may fall over the next few days…
Keep in mind… we are talking about snow showers and squalls so accumulations will vary from place to place… especially the farther west you live.
Here is your regional radar to track today’s action as it gets cranking…
Slick travel is a distinct possibility today and over the next few days. Lots of kids will likely be happy campers in the coming days as several school systems take their first snow days of the year.
Temps will be the other big story as readings start to tank. Highs will generally be in the upper 20s today then drop way down over the next few days. Readings in the low 20s for highs will be common for many areas for Monday and Tuesday. Lows will hit the teens both mornings and by Wednesday… we could be seeing temps TRYING to get into single digits if we can clear the skies out a bit. The NAM likes this idea…
Throw in very gusty winds over the next few days and the feel like temp will be down into the single digits at times. Those same winds can also blow any new snowfall around a bit.
While we have the cold and snow now… what about down the road?
This pattern shows no signs of breaking as far as I can see and that means we have a lot of cold and snow chances through December and likely into early January. This round of arctic cold will ease a bit by Thursday and Friday… but temps remain on the cold side. A new clipper should be working in from the northwest and could bring a mix/snow to snow situation by Friday. That is one to watch. Colder air will follow that for the weekend as we await the arrival of an arctic front about a week from now. There is a strong signal showing up for an arctic wave to develop along this front and sweep eastward across the region. If this is the case… we will have to be on guard as these waves can sometimes blow up into big storms across the eastern part of the country.
I will have updates as needed so check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.
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Hey a big storm is okay with me. Rio Grande finished out 12/4 with it still snowing and 3″ on the ground…….
4 inches of and still snowing in southern Pike county
I meant to add snow in there somewhere
Heres what Chris is hinting about next weekend. This is for next Sunday. To early to say if this will happen being 7 days out, but will be fun to track.http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_180m.gif
Well, Chris, you did it again with your spot-on snow forecast! I live in northeastern KY and the Cinci TV wx people totally underestimated this one and are doing the same for the snow squalls for today-Tuesday. I just watched one of the morning shows and they are barely calling for flurries, much less the 1-4 you are forecasting for our part of the state. Where did they get their degrees?????
Big flakes but very light snow falling at the moment. It is pretty out there.
Thanks for the update, Chris. We totally missed out on the snow here after that little bit yesterday morning. From the looks of your thoughts, it looks like we will miss out on most of it over the next few days as well. We have a few flurries here this morning, but they are very intermittent….oh well, it’s beginning to look a LOT like Christmas…..somewhere..~sigh~ Of course, the upside to this is that I will have no problem getting out to finish my shopping….
Still snowing in Lexington.
Wow, that snow map is scary when you have to drive from Lex to Roanoke through WV tomorrow.
Thanks Chris for all your hard work, love the blog! The snow was pretty yesterday, but it is sunny and already 37F at my house. Hopefully we will get some clouds or it will not last long.
We have a little over 4 inches of snow here in Southern End Of Magoffin county.
At East Point in Johnson County we have 2 in. on the ground, the roads look clear in front of my house since they scraped them. It is probably slick, though.
Everyone be careful when they get out.
hi 1 more time from the town of wayne. it is 10:20am on this snowy sunay morning and the temp is in the upper 20s with a stiff nnw wind blowing putting the windchill at about 15 or so. i live in wayne,wva. i blog on here because it seems as though everytime i leave comments on wsaz website they get moderated and i do not know why. i commented twice on saturday to leave weather reports and to no avail. so why waste your time. wsaz has some serious issues with their moderation as well as with their lag time to get a comment on the website. if it is snowing at 7am and you comment at 7:15 to tell about it, you need it on there as soon as possible not 24 hours later after another blog has been posted. any way thanks for allowing me the time to report the weather where i live in wva and to rant and rave about a few things that obviously are not mr. baileys fault but powers above him. i would leave this same message on wsaz website but it too would probably get moderated, so what is the use? thanks for your time. hope to hear from you mr. bailey. by the way great call yesterday in my area on the forecast, about 2 maybe 3 inches of snow on my back deck this morning and you said that wayne was on the fence of 1-3 or 2-5 and it was a great call. today through wed. it is on the fence of 1-4 or 2-6 depending on location which will probably mean a couple of more inches between now and we. with a couple on the ground come wed. morning. it may not melt but we may get the process of sublimation and that is something in between melying and evaporation. if some would maybe you can explain better at what that is when the snow gets so dry that it really does not melt it just evaporates. please explain. tony cavalier as used this term before on some of his weather reports on wsaz. i will post later as conditions warrant at my house. thank you and god bless you.
Yeah just stay on this side from now on. You can only post comments from this side. 🙂
well here is how the storm played out in my backyard in knox co… snow started falling yesterday morning , and snowed heavy for an hr. or so with about 1″ of snow, then turned to sleet,then to rain which occured off and on most of the day and melted what snow that did fall..last night the rain turned back to snow and has been snowing off and on since then with another dusting as of now…
I much more enjoy talking about snow in December than in February. It certainly seems as though the cold has settled in, but what about the talk from Joe Bastardi that the cold will break around Christmas week? Just a different interpretation? Are we still expecting a big shift to warmer in January and February?
(1).flurries to moderate snow = 1″snow
(2).moderate snow to sleet = slush puppy explosion !!!
(3). sleet to rain = green grass again..
(4). rain back to snow and snowshowers and flurries = a dusting!…
Thats how the storm played out in my backyard..
Currently: light snow w/dusting..
Welcome Toney we have a great blog here and great people.31 in Pikeville snow still on the ground.
Dear Snow Gods, Don’t forget Louisville. Bill
The snow starts to pick up and of course Jacksons radar goes down.
Well, looks like every noaa radar has gone down. Checked other radar locations as well and they are also out.
Snowing HARD in Wise right now. I know the kids will get out tom. but the college will roll on. At least I will get my Organic Chem. final done YAY!!!!
hi 1 more time from the town of wayne,wva. starting to flurry around 4pm once again.the temp is in the low 30s with a wind chill in the low 20s. will update as needed. tanks to crystal and anthony for their kind words toward me. god bless you all.
meant to say thanks, not tanks. sorry about that.
Has anyone looked at sunday the 12th next week? It shows blizzard conditions over kentucky with heavy snow and winds up to 50 mph!!! Each model run has gone colder lately too…Mr Bailey, we need an update! Im flying from Chicago to Lville on the 12th
why nobody talking about the MAJIOR EASTERN SNOWSTORM for next week. it a close one right now with a miss for us.
but look at it as it a OLD SCHOOL low at the begining of next week.
it is worth watching as the WRAP AROUND could hit eastern and far se ky HARD if things work out right. this is the system ive been referring to last few days.
CHRIS u and both posted at same time,lol it is very exciting to see this right now as every model is showing a storm.
now we got bout 25 plus runs to go but I HAVE BEN EXCITED FOR 3 DAYS now.
theeuro,gfs, gem latest are coming back to the west NW with the storm a bit. this storm has OLD SCHOOL WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.
Hey Toney……..
Sorry to hear about the moderation and glad you got your thoughts posted here. Can you do me a fav though? Break that page into paragraphs if you post a long message. Thanks.
will do my friend, sorry about that. sometimes i get carried away typing and forget where i am at. will do better next time.
Snowing in Fleming County, but not showing up on radar….
Radars all across the country are having issues right now… the snow is there! 🙂
Getting a pretty good snow squall here. Wouldn’t be surprised if we received around 5 inches storm total.
Hey rolo,
What amount of liquid are the models spitting out for South Central Ky or can you post a link?
Thanks
Thanks for posting that comment. I was starting to get worried.
Snow is coming down heavy right now in Whitesburg. I measured around 5 inches on the ground just a few minutes ago. The temp is dropping (28 now) and its really starting to stick everywhere. If all this runoff from melting snow freezes it will be a real mess on the roads. Everyone stay safe out there.
snowing pretty hard in wayne,wva as of 6:55pm. been snowing now for about 30 minutes. have a fresh coating on the ground with a stiff north west wind making it feel brutal out there. took the dog out for her daily stroll and even she wanted to cut the walk short tonight. of course i did not mind either. lol!!!!! will update as needed from the town of wayne,wva. many thanks and god bless.
snowing and 30 egrees at 7:25pm here in wayne wva on this snowy sunday evening. the grass has been coated 1 more time. every thing we got last night melted today. will update as needed from wayne,wva. thanks!!!!!!
Shane, Chris, anyone. I have to drive from Lex to Roanoke tomorrow, and come back Tuesday afternoon. Chris’s snow map makes me nervous about the preferred route, over to Charleston on 64 and then down to VA on 77. I’m considering bailing on that and doing 75 to Corbin, US 25 over to Middlesboro, and the hooking up with to Roanoke. Or booking a last minute flight.
It’s been over 24 hours since I checked in from Monticello. Just to let you know nothing has changed….nothing at all on the ground LOL! Maybe at the least we’ll get in on the cold temps.
hi again from the town of wayne,wva. it is 8:40pm on this cold and sometimes snowy sunday night. my last 2 comments went to moderation, not sure why but, oh well, i am used to that by now. wsaz.com moderates every thing and also has about an 6 to 8 hour lag time to be posted. these comments on here usually get put on within the first 15 minutes which is better than i am used to. any way, to the weather at hand, we have a coating of snow here in wayne as of this writing at 8:45pm. we had 2 to 3 inches of snow last evening but it all melted away today. some of this stuff is being rewritten from previous comments that went to moderation for reasons unknown. if any thing gets put on later and is a repeat, i am very sorry for that, i am only trying to get my point across to every one. this blog is 2 to 1 better than wsaz.com edition, in my opinion. this blog lets you know right away if the comment is being sent to moderation. thank you an god bless you all and keep up the good work mr. bailey.
snowing in wayne,wva at 8:50pm with a coating on the ground.
my last comment got put on. the 3 before that went to moderation and they were real long. i kept this last 1 real short. is this the key to keeping them out of moderation? someone please help me out by answering the question for me. if i am going to type i want it to get put on. thank you very much. god bless.
NO SCHOOL IN BELL,WHITLEY COUNTIES ON MONDAY…
been snowing pretty hard off and on here in knox and bell counties this evening, I was in Middlesboro earlier and they got a quick 1/2″ or more of snow in just a short period of time this evening…roads are snow covered in spots, especially in intense squalls…here in Knox co..Barbourville city area, not much snow on the ground as of an hr. ago..but just outside the city where i live almost 1″ of snow on the hill I live on and the roads are snow covered and slick…
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How much snow for the nest system??
Tim, I have about 3 inches at my house right now!! Its still coming down.. I love this 🙂 Do ya think we are in for much more & what about that storm rollin in about the 12th, are we in on that one or what do you think thus far? Just wonderin!!
I think its still on the table, the models are all over the place with it. but most every forecaster is pretty excited about the possibilities that lie ahead for the next several weeks…
oh yeah..and dont be a snow hog!!!..lol…
NO SCHOOL IN KNOX CO. MONDAY along with several others…getting state police reports of very slick roads in Knox,laurel,whitley counties…so drive carefully out there tonight..
Toney, I found that if I hit the enter key twice after about 20 words, that helps.
I usually copy it if it is long before I send, just in case.