UPDATE
I really need to stop posting before the European Model runs. The updated European has a much colder solution from tonight through Wednesday and puts down some hefty snow totals…
That certainly makes things much more interesting. Let’s see what the models hold for later this morning.
PREVIOUS UPDATE POSTED 30 MINUTES PRIOR TO THE ONE ABOVE
Good Monday and welcome to a busy Thanksgiving week of weather. We continue to track a developing winter storm that will have a major impact on holiday travelers across the eastern half of the country. This is going to have a sizable impact on our weather through Wednesday.
Let’s start with my latest breakdown…
Let’s start with the first batch of light snow streaking in here tonight. This will be fairly light, but may have enough juice to put down a small accumulation for some.
The southern storm really begins to influence our weather on Tuesday. Precipitation will overspread the region from the south and will be in the form of a mess. A mix will turn to heavy rain across the southeast, with a mix of rain and snow into central and northern Kentucky.
The change to snow will take place rapidly from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening. A moderate to heavy band of snow will then work across central and eastern Kentucky into Tuesday night. This will likely bring accumulating snows to much of the region. Exactly how much depends on how fast this thing moves and on where you live. This could deliver a little or several inches of the white stuff. Here’s a look at the odds for just the Tuesday night snowfall…
Areas in and near the “Likely” have a decent shot of 2″ or more of snow. I will have First Call For Snowfall coming your way around noon.
On a model note… the GFS is finally coming around to what everything else has been saying for a week…
The GFS and the NAM still have some work to do and I suspect some subtle changes will show up on them later today.
It should be noted that our Hi-Res RPM model is much more robust on the snow potential…
Notice the widespread snow showers and squalls on Wednesday? We can easily see more accumulations from those to go along gusty winds and temps in the upper 20s. Wind chills may hit the single digits. Moral of the story… the busy travel day is likely to have some issues around here.
Thanksgiving looks dry and cold with lows in the low to mid teens and highs in the low to mid 30s. Black Friday will be another cold one.
On a related note… December has a chance to be a memorable winter month for much of the country. Check out how things look later in the first week of the month…
I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.
You are the best by far!
Looks like I lots of cold rain with very little snow for SE Ky same ole song and dance
That’s just not true at all.
Andy, that’s unfortunately looks to be the case. Odds are 80% of what falls will be a nasty cold rain. Maybe we can get a slushy inch of snow here in Laurel and Knox , yippee.
The NWS office in Jackson, KY is saying it could be the FIRST white thanksgiving on record possible! The most and only time there was snow on the ground was a trace in 1989! (BTW, at WFO and KJL) Also, the record coldest high for the date and month of 30° was tied at Jackson yesterday!
Don’t get too excited about those Jackson records. They only go back to 1981.
I wish they had records for Thanksgiving of 1950 in Jackson. I know it was -3 in Lexington and both Louisville and Lexington had close a foot of snow. It was apparently even worse down in Eastern KY.
You’re right, totally missed that for some reason.
LMK pretty much squashed Louisville’s chances of seeing anything more than just a mixed bag of precip. Eastern Kentucky looking likely to see a couple of inches of snow if nothing changes.
Looks like temps rose overnite
Is it just me or is that precip in TX/Arkansas riding further north than what was predicted?
NWS Louisville forecaster did suggest a site for reporting precipitation type and is supposed to be useful for mobile applications, as we know, precipitation can change from rain to heavy snow over a short distance.
mPING is the name and is downloadable at the App Store and Google Play.
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/
If snow is on the ground leading into Thursday, the temps will be even colder. Especially if no clouds. This could be the lowest turnout for Black Friday line campers- evah!
I am sensing a money making venture with a cart filled with hot beverages and soup!
Most accidents evah as mosy can’t drive in the snow because they dont understand they need to slow down
Tom akerman saying tbe totals will be less than one inch. That makes me happy : )
Looks like local mets have increased temps for Tuesday and saying we are the transition point for the system. That would be the same old song and dance, so wonder if CB sees it different or also backs off some?
With a lot of leaves still on trees, folks to the east could have a powerless Thanksgiving and then some.
I guessed as much would happen but was shot down told I was wrong.
It seems Jackson has backed off a bit this morning.. Now saying mostly rain with 1-2 inches of wrap around snow.
That’s what everyone here is saying. Kentucky winters are a joke, about like UK football lol.
Its not winter yet..
thanks you Chris. we appreciate your hard work. we’re havin’ fun with the chance of a little snow.whatever we get will be good.
safe travels to all the folks heading out.
why does it always come down to an over performing backside low or lake effect snow. looks like another prelude to the up coming season.
folks NOBODY said this was going be a MAJIOR WINTER STORM, sum u acting like we was expecting 6 plus inches.. a 2-4 inches is huge snow for this time year. also as well as what we saw last decade.
so if 1-2 inches is what happens then nobody has on TV said anything different. I still this 4 inches for parts of EASTERN KY, I do see the heaviest precip will be a RAIN/MIX for a lot of SE KY and will indeed cut down on totals. there will be a heavy band snow set up in EASTERN KY if the switch over happens as expected.
my area London Clay Co area I see 1-2 inches at BEST. Hazard east SE up to 3 possible???
If Chris is not in threat mode yet then their is no threat, If you pick up an inch on the back side of this Tuesday nite consider yourself lucky, the heaviest moisture seems to be coming in when temps are at their warmest! DOME LIVES!
ROLO morning update, as I have look over everything since my morning post which was on last nite data.
look lika MAINLY liquid/mix system, then as it gets cold enough the PRECIP as USUAL will be leaving town. I say at this point if u see a inch u need go play powerball. the VA/TENN MT counties as we know will see best chance at anything higher than 2 inches as it be snowing on BLACK MT while raining/mix in the valleys. so here what I have to say, no negative post about this system as hjey at least we are in the game, but it is indeed the same ole same ole aint it… now if SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN then things change, but I SEE NOTHING saying that can happen.
You Did a 180 within 40 min that has to be a record 😉