Good Monday, everyone. We are now in WINTER STORM THREAT mode for the eastern half of Kentucky for the potential of 4″ or more of snow over the next few days. I almost went straight to the ALERT, but decided to make that call later this afternoon.
Here’s what I expect…
– A round of light snow and icy mix will push across the state this evening and overnight. This will likely put down light accumulations that can cause slick spots to develop on area roads.
– The bulk of the moisture arrives on Tuesday as our winter storm cranks up. The models are just now sensing the low level arctic cold that’s already in place and are coming in with a colder scenario.
– Snow and a mix will be with parts of central and northern Kentucky as southern and southeastern parts of the state go over to heavy rain for a while. The snow line will then collapse southeastward rapidly by late afternoon and early evening. It will be snowing hard across most of central and eastern Kentucky shortly after dark.
– A band of moderate to heavy snow will work across central and eastern Kentucky into Wednesday morning. This band will put down the bulk of the snowfall.
– Snow showers and squalls will become widespread on Wednesday as northwesterly winds gust to 30mph. Some of these squalls may produce whiteout conditions at times. Additional accumulations will be possible. Temps will stay in the 20s and wind chills may approach 0 in some cases.
What about the First Call For Snowfall? Here ya go…
That’s showing everything falls from tonight through Wednesday and doesn’t necessarily mean you will have the high end totals on the ground at any one time. That said… there’s a decent chance I’m low-balling this whole thing.
I will have another update later today, but the whole tv gig will be my top priority. I will be showing off some new winter weather toys on WKYT this evening, so tune in.
Have a great afternoon and take care.
Ohhhhh I can’t wait!!! I’m so excited!! Chris you’re the best and I hope we get a lot of snow. I’ve been waiting forever!!
Well said ,Ryan. My thoughts exactly.
I will say this ole BAILEY BOY is going all in here early, as there no pulling back now, but the 1-4 inch is a good map as u cant tell till it happens how much snow will ineed fall on BACKSIDE/ as storm is leaving so good to cover a LARGE number as far as snowfall goes..
Wow..not bad for being November..3 to 6 and maybe a little more if any deformation band’s can set up..Unless you’re andy who gets nothing but cold rain..lol
Sticking by my story I have had the past few yrs with these sytems 😉 more inches of rain than measurable snow.
Thanks for the name drop 🙂
Yea i know what you’re saying..I hate these Rain changing to Snow scenario’s myself…Hopefully this winter will be different..
I’m with you, Andy. Nothing about this system indicates that we will get more than a slushy inch. Far northeast KY may fare ok, but down here, it will be plain ole rain. When CB starts advertising the “afterthought” flurries and snow showers, which usually don’t add up to much, I know this storm is just a cold rain.
I live in northern middle Tennessee. Seems like the GFS/NAM doesn’t give us much (if any) snow accumulation, so this seems a bit generous for us…but I agree with the amounts of eastern Kentucky. The mets down in Nashville are acting like we won’t get ANY accumulation at all…
I also live in northern middle TN. Lelan Statom of WTVF this morning stressed “at this time” so he seems to be leaving a little wiggle room.
It looks “at this time” that the TN Plateau will have the better chances of measurable stuff. But at least the freezing rain threat is somewhat reduced compared to what it was. Hopefully what mix there will be will be more sleet or snow, not icing. We will be driving to Cleveland TN (near Chattanooga) for Thanksgiving so we don’t want any ice if possible.
LOOK to me like nobody even models still really don’t have a FIRM hold on storm, could be a GOMER PYLE special, SUPRISE!!SUPRISE!!SUPRISE!! I wouldn’t mind.. cause that euro snowmap shows a MONSTER, I think it as euro. somebody come in with a confirm on that.. Rodger wilko..
Rolo, you’ll be changing your tune tomorrow afternoon, when the bulk of the precip is RAIN. It’s a Gomer Pyle storm ok, Rain..SHAZAM!
oh earlier poster said no snowfall on TGIVING ever, heck im 39 and remember snow on TGIVING. not sure what years but I remember..
I can remember a big snow on Thanksgiving in 1976. I think there was about 10 inches on the ground.
tx CBAILEY, u are the man. the addition of JIMMY C!! has made WKYT even better if that was possible.
You have 3-6 inches for greenup county..why is
Wsaz only called for an inch or so?
I always follow this sight everyday, because I love to keep up with our close states. I live in Morristown Tennessee and would love to see some snow on the ground for Thanksgiving. Can anyone tell me if it looks like my area could get any snow? I sure wish we had a weather man here like Chris Bailey. Wish he would forecast for my area, you all are so lucky to have him!
Latest GFS snowfall map for Lexington and east looking good. Tried to copy and paste it here, but phone not letting me for some reason.
Give us a rundown of snow totals…..
Yes plz!
GFS has 6+ inches across Eastern Ky… Euro looks alot better for central ky with 6 inches also..
lol…just seen Chris tweet…
Where in central KY? I’m most interested in Madison but would appreciate a bit more detail elsewhere if you have the time. Thx
north central looks like on my map to get the most..Here’s a link if anyone wants to look at the Euro..Just put in your email is all you have to do..7 day trial..No credit card info or anything..Just username and email..
http://www.eurowx.com/
What does the euro look like for east ky
Please tell…..
By looking at the comments, I wonder how old the people that comment are, especially rolo. Last year when I was new to the blog, everyone talked about rolo and I was lost in the ocean of comments in the hundreds. I dont know of any other blog like CB’s that has as much readers.
Rolo is old I mean really old. just kidding Rolo
no you are not. rolo has been around since the dawn of time.
Think I’ll name these storms….this one is going to be called “Strawberry” . Instead of milk & break I think I’ll run out to the store for some strawberry flavoring for my slush that I’ll be having in Monticello out of all this.
Probably a good thumping for central and far east KY. I feel like us southern and se kentuckians better get the boat out. Andy Rose, do you have your umbrella and rain jackets ready?? I think CB is underplaying the warmth. Mostly a rain event for London/Corbin and points south folks.
NWS in Jackson going with 1-2″ amounts for most of east Ky. far eastern KY looking a little healthier with 2-4″ totals. Lexington with less than one inch. These guys aren’t overly impressed with snow potential it appears.
However, with the noon update, the forecaster seems frustrated and uncertain..
NWS always underplays until the event starts, they do seem lost in the woods at the moment!
Seemed pretty certain that rain would change over to snow by 8PM for locations along and north of the Mountain Parkway, and around midnight for along the Hal Rogers Parkway. Given the trend of the recent years, I think the NWS guys are spot on, and that rain will hang around much longer than any of us like.
NWS in Jackson considering a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow evening. Sounds like the advisory area will be well north of the Hal Rogers. In the end, I’m going with all rain, with some wraparound snow showers on wednesday-for most of se KY and southern KY
Time will tell, but hope Chris nails this for the sake of us snow starved folks!
Even NWS Jackson MS is now calling for light snow accumulation Tue evening in central Mississippi.
Perhaps this boosts hopes a bit for snow lovers in our area 😉 .
You know it’s winter when the armchair weather forecasters come out of the woodwork.
I can’t agree more!
I used to commute to work on the M40 back when I lived in England! 14 years, back and forth every day…
I remeber when severe weather meant severe weather
Alright, the models and the comments seem to be all over the place. I have learned that you can’t trust any of them. The science is just not there yet. So… IBIWISI
ISREAL IM A BLOG LEGEND, second I posted im 39 years old. 3rd I not much of a grammar scholar. 4th I never proof read. 5TH we here such as ANDY ROSE,BUBBA G, Crystal, CHAS,VINNY Marsha are what made the blog as we stuck together in the early days,, TIIM,BERNIE and others as well. KEAVY MAN been round as well. ones I didn’t mention u know I love ya. THERE MANY FROM clay co WERE ME IS FROM WHO ARE HERE AS WELL. chris g, TO NAME ONE AND dONNA WHO POST UNDER ANOTHER NAMED. so what now is a great blog has its what they call in football its GOOD OLE BOY and Girl network that backs its program no matter what.
as far as my postinmg lots of post well im round a lot in winter so I try and talk and talk, and talk, ohh and 6th TALK!!!
THAT MADE ME THINK SET US UP A CHAT ROOM kEAVY mAN OR REMIND US ITS ADDRESS AS I HAVE FORGOT. THE caps lock MEANS NOTHING HERE AS I FORGET TO TAKE IT OFF AS I POST A lot. ISREAL u in time will be part of the Family.. u will one day kiss the ring as u are brought in. loll had to do the GODFATHER thing..
It is so good to hear from Rolo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I understand, ill just state that I’m probably the youngest reader here, in my teens. Hey rolo, heard of YOLO before? You only live once. Why did you name yourself rolo anyway, do you like that candy?
Rolocoaster 😉
I’ve been here since day one when Chris first started the old blog. I enjoy reading the comments.
saw big 9 point buck walla go, didn’t have no gun or it been a great kill. but still cool to watch him as he was so calm as I look upon him with my tasco..
and you better pray that fish and game isn’t around when you do it
The boys at the Jackson office going with all rain tonight for us snow deprived southern kentuckians. Can’t win for losing in these parts.
November
Looks like lots of moisture moving up from west Tennessee, I wonder if it will take a while to saturate and hit the ground when it gets to northern and eastern KY, could be a surprise tonight if this falls as mostly Snow!
NWS playing this down. Only slight accumulations through Wednesday.
Yea both Jackson and Louisville are dismissing this. It’s Mr Bailey vs those big Government know it all’s. Stick it to em CB
Hello Mr. NAM! 18z rollin in with a good hit to east central and east ky.
THE NAM IS THE MAN this close in usually.. still hoping for EVAP COOLING with the rain in SE/EW KY to turn it back over quicker.
the NWS will update within the hour with watches and or advisories . there waiting on the evening update I suspect. after seeing this NAM rolling in I would think they would issue a WINTER STORM WATCH for a lot.
How much is nam showing?
Hey guys come on over to the Kentucky Weather Chatroom to discuss!!
http://kywxchat.webs.com/
Snowing steady for the last 25 minutes here in Bowling Green in Warren County at 38 degrees. I was surprised to see snow instead of rain or a mix. I guess the warm air is not aloft since the low is so far to our south.
Bids is dancing in da streeTs
Some people are so lucky. Here in Louisville we are not getting anything not even rain yet Also, it is above 40. I was looking forward to this too.
Parts of Western NC have an ice storm warning. Well, Thanksgiving of ’77 we had an ice storm in Thanksgiving & power was out…..I was 5. It’s all like a blur! But that’s the ONLY time I EVER remember winter weather in November in Western NC…..Can you imagine if this winter turned out to be like that?
I’m at work and have been too busy to post, but it’s been snowing in Nashville TN for a while! Trying to stick to the car tops.
The radar returns are not that impressive as precip moves toward central KY? Hopefully this redevelops!
well I see exciting stuff from everything, but no WARNINGS or advisories for tomm nit????? HELLLOOOOOO NWS
someone post the models each one snowfall map.. like BAILEY had on weather.
still to warm tonite,. but tonite not the storm. this time tomm EVERYBODY look to be getting FUNKY like a MONKEY in east central and SE/EAST KY unless its a bust. but withj all the models showing snow how can iot bust,,,,,, well the TEMPETURES is only thing that can get us now, but EVAP COOLING should keep that from happening..
I think its crazy that other weather stations are downplaying this event and we are less than 24 hours from it really getting exciting. As always I’m sticking with Chris on this one.
CB against the WORLD! The other local mets are still downplaying this, so will be interesting how it all pans out!
Will warm air be a party crasher again, or not?! I say it will not be, but I have been wrong more than right last year.
Bubba admitting he was wrong? 😉
The GFS snowfall map verifies with the NAM. Good hit eastern half state. Would think NWS would be getting an advisory out soon. If NAM and GFS amounts hit, should be a WSWatch for Lexington and east.
Tell me how the NWS down plays this when every model shows atleast 3 inches of snow for central and east Tuesday night? Do these folks just ignore this because of all the misses of the models lately????
Maybe they are tired of being the boy that cried wolf