Good Tuesday, everyone. A winter storm will have a significant impact on central and eastern Kentucky through Wednesday. The highest impact will be across eastern Kentucky, where several inches of heavy, wet snow may fall this evening into early Wednesday.
My latest thoughts…
– A wintry mess may be noted to start the day across much of the region. This may impact travel… especially in central and northern sections of the state.
– Rain will take over in southern and eastern Kentucky for most of the late morning and afternoon hours. This could be heavy at times. A mix of rain and snow will be across central and northern sections.
– A RAPID switch to snow will take place from late afternoon into the early evening hours from northwest to southeast. That will set the stage for moderate to heavy snow for much of central and eastern Kentucky Tuesday evening and night.
– The steady snows will taper off in the east first thing Wednesday. That’s when snow showers and squalls kick in for many areas. Some of these will be intense and may produce whiteout conditions. Winds will gust close to 30mph with highs only in the 20s. This may produce wind chill temps from 0-5 above at times.
Here’s a look at my updated snowfall thoughts…
I’ve tried to get a little more specific with the forecast, but those lines are meant o be used as rough guides and are not set in stone. The area around the Lexington metro could honestly see anywhere from 1″-6″ of snow. That’s a heck of a spread, so I tried to get a little more specific. Areas farther east look to get smacked around this evening and overnight. Widespread 3″-6″ amounts appear to be a safe bet. Locally higher amounts will be possible in a couple of zones. We will have to see exactly where those zones set up.
I will have a final call coming your way by Noon.
It should be noted that every model I look at has widespread 3″-6″ snows in our region. The NAM is most expansive…
The Hi Res run of the NAM tries to pinpoint things a little better…
I suspect we will see Winter Storm Warnings going up before the day is over.
Updates as needed and via twitter. Have a good one and take care.
One to two inches. Really? I believe it when I see it. It is already 1:14 in the morning and not even a drop of snow or rain.
You realize that’s for tomorrow night… right?
You misunderstand; I was talking about the last few years of no snow fall. Just cold air.
Andrew that’s totals into wed. Geeeze, its just monday night… Way ti many untrained mets on this page..lol
Being a met and having a open mind is two different things. Plus, you misunderstand there is a chance of snowfall and there is a equal chance that there will not be one that is what I mean by my post. Weather, is unpredictable despite the graphs and numbers. No offence of course.
This page isn’t for trained mets soyour comment makes no sense
Jackson NWS Snowfall
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=jkl
Yeah we are in the 3-6 inch range finally I live in Martin county ky and
We barley ever get this much snow comming I’ve been keeping a close
Eye on things so keep me updated and posted on the winter weather
Conditions and I think winterstorm warnings will go up to Well keep me posted and good call for snowfall u seem really accurate
If all the models are picking up on as Chris Bailey just said 3-6″ area wide, then why hasn’t the NWS in Jackson or Louisville issued and WSW or WWA for KY? Guess their gonna wait til the last minute and issue anything like the ALWAYS do?
I think it’s a tricky forecast. They probably want to see what the temperatures will do. Will it be rain? Will it be snow? The bulk of any snow won’t be until the afternoon or evening so they still have time to update in the morning.
Looks kind of high for the snowfall totals.. Mason WV is in 6+ inches of snow and our local weather is suggesting 1-3 Tuesday night and around 1 inch Wednesday.. we shall see..
Yeah, now it is snowing a little bit here in Louisville.
RAIN for most thru 8 pm tonite, BAILEY u have gutted this one, I think u need set back and just be honest and wait urself like the NWS. but ur in the nlog business etc and TV HYPE O METER so I understand. MAN LOOK at that moisture rolling in that would be a MONSTER STORM but the WWA always wins out. nothing never changes in WINTER WEATHER same ole song and dance. thgis will be jhhow ur winter goes.. bust,bust,bust..
You just got owned, tool.
I SUISPECT FLASH FLOOD watches will be going up soon, WOW look at the heavy rain coming..
Winter storm warning for east ky.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013
…WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY…ALLOWING FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL.
KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120-261630-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WS.W.0002.131127T0000Z-131128T0000Z/
BELL-HARLAN-FLOYD-KNOTT-PERRY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…
PRESTONSBURG…HINDMAN…HAZARD…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…INEZ…
PIKEVILLE
324 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
* RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING…FIRST OCCURRING IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS…BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO
8 INCHES…WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS OCCURRING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
2000 FEET.
* EXPECT DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY…WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE
AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL
IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.
$$
Winter Weather Advisory now out for Lexington Metro. LMK seems to think amounts will match what Chris’ map shows for Lexington metro. Also mentioning 4 inch plus amounts possible East of I-75 which would make for WSW criteria
A 2.5 inch snowfall will make this a top 10 snowiest November ever. 2.7 inches a Top 10 snowiest autumn.
Good luck eastern Kentucky.
Woke up this morning in Louisville (near The Highlands) to not a single flake of snow on the ground and nothing falling from the sky. And the same can be said for my shot down I-65 to work. The roads were a little damp, but other than that, nothing. It might be a little different in other areas of town, I don’t know. Hopefully we’ll get in on some of the action today.
Simple… IBWISI
Good luck central/eastern Kentucky. Western Kentucky? Nothing. 🙁
We can send you flooding rains if you want as that’s all we are getting atm and I doubt snow will stick to water.
This site if full of Debbie Downers that act like they know more about forecasting than Chris. Keep up the great work Chris
Agree 100%. Nearly all weather outlets are calling for snow now, yet all a few UNTRAINED people can say is how much rain it’s going to be. Pretty sure I’ll believe Chris and all of the other TRAINED, EDUCATED meteorologists.
Chris does do a good job at what he does but unless something happens to break the trend then there isnt amy reason to expect this storm to behave any differently.
Not downing anyone… experience just shows the science of winter forecasting is not very developed. It is really only slightly better than guesting.
What do you mean by “the science of winter forecasting is not very developed”? Is this a professional opinion or personal? In my personal opinion that doesn’t make sense. I would imagine the science behind any forecasting is pretty developed regardless of season. Of course I’m just speculating, how about you?
My thoughts are that the mets can nail forecasts in the other seasons but predicting snow accurately doesn’t seem to be within the grasp of the modeling we have now. In the 5 years or so I have been following this I can’t think of many snow call forecasts that were correct (or close) unless they were less than 12 hours out.
Is there a specific time frame for the snow to start?
According to the Micah its suppose to start between 4-6 depending on how far west you are
Thank you Andy. I am in Mercer county. Little town called Burgin.
I dont remember the last time a system went from snow to rain during the night? Its raining here in Lexington and about all the snow has melted. Besides, the main show comes later this evening so I’ll be waiting.
Back in February of 2010 we had one that went from snow to rain in Lexington. We had about four inches of snow on the ground around midnight–it changed to freezing rain, then a nice, 33 degree rain that melted the snow, and then we got flurries on the backside.
Was thinking we were going to have to move north to enjoy snow this year! We have freezing rain in Greenup County. Thanks, Chris, for all you do for the weather lovers in KY! This time of year we realize your sleep is less than desirable! Have a safe day everyone!
32 in burgin with rain…..
The morning run of the GFS and NAM have backed off on the snow totals for central ky. Looks like the Lex. area went from about 4 in. to 2 in.
Imagine that……we never get much snow!
pls. expand. do you have any updates on what the models are calling for regarding southern Madison Co. (near Rockcastle)
2-3 in.
thx James
Scott, the 12z NAM backed off even more. Looks like maybe an inch now.
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=MRX
http://wxcaster4.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=MRX
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=06Z&STATIONID=MRX
for those interested
to all the towns and communities east of I 75, remember we have the infamous phrase” just wait until next week”.
were the flood watches at!!! RAPID CHANGE OVER 4-6 pm then u see sum HEAVY SNOW Before precip leaves. 2-4 inches area wide for SE/E KY
I know the snow is not supposed to arrive to later but right now this is an absolutely miserable day in Lawrenceburg. Light rain/drizzle falling, a bit of wind, and temp is 32.9 degrees.
Cold rain here in middlesboro…. The severe storms that are going to hit Florida and the easy coast will steal the moisture… With that being said I think we will get around a inch here with snow showers tomorrow
May I ask, is it not very quiet in here with a big snow coming?
It’s a busy work week since it’s so short for a lot of us!
folks u need to start focusing on the BACKSIDE/WILDSIDE look in lower louisana at the upper low CRANKING then u already see it starting to fill in sum in western ky/west ten yep I think by dark tonite we going see WHIT OUT CONDITIONS… BACKSIDE THOUGH IS KEY to any SNOW receive.. so watch the upper low I spoke of and the filling in on backside to see if we get a Decent snow.
Me thinks people seem to be forgetting it’ still november…This is only a bonus no matter what amount you get..Really no reason to get excited until the middle and end of December when Climo is more in our favor…Happy T-giving everyone…
Severe weather now breaking out along the gulf, if snow lovers in Ky already didnt have enough to over come for snow, now moisture stealing could come into play?
Tornado warning for parts of the panhandle
Haha–Todd, you surely know the lexicon. Moisture robbing, dry slotting, virga, warm air advection, have I forgot any?
Just one, the mighty DOME!
Perhaps not. The bad wx in Florida is headed roughly for the Carolina coast, not here.
As Rolo mentioned, we may need to look more around Louisiana, where it’s not severe wx. More precip seems to be trying to fire up in Mississippi as well; precip that will head our way. NWS Jackson Mississippi and NWS Birmingham are still calling for snow in their areas, with perhaps some very minor accumulation in a few spots. Perhaps that’s a good sign for our area for snow lovers.
WSWARNING for London south and east to be issued soon, the NWS as I said getting a hold of the VIGORIOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GOING MOVE RIGHT OVER TOP OR JUST TO OUR EAST THAT WILL TROW WICKED WRAP ROUND MOISTURE BACK into the EASTERN HALF of STATE and SE.
TODD u got ryes?? look at the plum of moisture just now entering southern ten moving this way with UPPER LOW behind it churning!!!
We are on the edge of this storm already here in Frankfort so anyshift in track or moisture puts us in the no snow zone layer, we just want a couple inches!
Wonder if far eastern ky may see some ice before turning to snow…
Mountain news just upped totals to 4-8 for a lot of se ky. 8-12 for higher elevations. I’m thinking after dark things get real interesting. Lots and lots of moisture and the track is a good one for very heavy snow in east ky