Good Tuesday, folks. Things remain on course for winter storm to bring a significant impact across central and eastern Kentucky through Wednesday. Let’s break it down…
– A cold rain will continue to fall across many areas this afternoon. The models, especially the GFS, are doing a good job of picking up on the first slug of moisture passing to our east.
– The radar will explode with redevelopment across central and eastern Kentucky and points south this afternoon and evening. Cold air will surge in and change this over to snow from northwest to southeast. With a lot of water from today’s rain… a quick ice up is possible this evening.
– We will see a very slow moving band of moderate to heavy snow working across central and eastern Kentucky this evening and overnight. This will have sharp western edge that sets up between Interstate 75 and Interstate 65.
– The steady snow will end Wednesday morning across eastern Kentucky. This is when the snow showers and squalls kick in on a strong northwesterly wind. These will be intense and put down quick accumulations that can cause whiteout conditions at times.
– Travel from this evening through Wednesday will be slow go at times.
Here’s the Final Call For Snowfall…
Again… that’s for everything that falls THROUGH Wednesday. You may never measure the high end of those numbers at any given time.
The NWS offices have a similar line of thinking on the western side of this thing…
Here’s a look at the latest Advisories and Warnings…
I will have updates as needed. Take care.
Sleet is now mixing in with the rain on the SW side of Jefferson County in Louisville
Wow! Sure wish Richmond was getting some of the white stuff. We’re only getting rain today 🙁
Richmond Virginia that is.
I have no idea why Nashville is in a WWA. Nothing is going to happen here to merit the advisory. I honestly don’t mind a dusting b/c after all…it’s November. Expectations are different here than eastern Kentucky. But the problem is when the forecast doesn’t verify, then people here won’t take the mets seriously when/if the ‘big one’ actually comes. I’m sensitive to the ‘cry wolf’ syndrome. Yesterday was a bonus as we got about a 0.5″ of snow here which melted quickly (not sure how much snow is still up in BG after yesterday).
They arent taken serious now thats why they hype on the small events
u just see the beginning of how the precip will fill in as the upper low in louisana moves out. only thing now is just wait for around sunset and its FUNKY LIKE A MONKEY for a lot on east central/se and east ky!!!
still say WSWARNING BE ISSUED for London south and east. think Bailey totals littlon low side for this areas. but overall BAILEY gets a grade of a plus as he 2 days ago gave u totals before anybodyelse including the goverement mules at NWS
I see the upper low and on radar as its moving north the precip is fading, so my thunderstorms in the gulf seem to be robbing moisture as I was stating earlier might happen!
Those severe/tornadic storms in Florida seem to be headed for the Carolina coastline. Thus, perhaps they will have little effect on our area.
Hope you’re right….I would hate to think we would get “moderate to heavy snow” and squalls and end up with a lousy inch or 2 lol
Im not to convinced this will happen
I hope mercer county gets enough to cancel school tomorrow.
…sigh…was waiting for snow in Louisville…seemed like it was a done deal…now, nothing.
schools are closed in my area Wed for TGIVING, wow cant believe sum these school peeps. JOYCE u be ok there not be school there.
My son goes to Burgin….I hope you are right Rolo
Time for me to do the snow dance!!!!!!Bring it on ……I want Berea to be covered up in the white fluffy snow when I get up in the morning….
Yes ! 3-6 inches in Martin county ky (:
another epic failure for th Louisville Metro areo. does anybody want to take a magic clipper flight
Should be use to it by now. lol
I love clippers. The best two snows of the past five winters have come from them. Bring them on!
Latest from NWS is the deformation band of snow for this evening is in question, might be east of I- 75, here we go on the downward trend, Frankfort area will get a dusting at most, good luck to the east!
No … This can’t happen again !
3rd deck duster of November. Must be some kind of record!!!
question for the group: How will the wet ground from todays rain play into snow accumulations tonight?
All I can say is we must be snow starved if the hype is this high for this event.
I, for one, am snow starved and all in favor of hype. It allows me to live vicariously with those who see snow on a regular basis. Long live the hype! lol
I agree! Not knocking the hype at all. I’d love to see a nice snowfall!
If the models miss this one again within a 12 hour window will only prove again what a crap shoot winter weather is in central KY! This morning a solid 2or3 inch. Snow looked locked in, now the NWS says doubt it!
NWS was slow to pull the trigger to begin with and somebidy called them out
It will be interesting to see who had this forecast nailed from 48 h-ours out…
It won’t really matter – it’s little more than guess work, snow predicting that is.
Question:
All of the moisture looks to be gone at 6pm if you play the radar in future motion …………. Where is this snow going to come from ?
yay more rain. I don’t buy the hype and never will. Long term climate change and ruined Kentucky winters for the long term. Enjoy the nasty cold rain folks
I think Chris’ map is good, really good given it was posted early in the morning. But given the radar returns I’d say the totals will be on the low end at best.
I’m going back to last years terminology, anything more than 1 inch EPIC in Frankfort area 🙂
Haa–by your definition we’ve had two epic events in the past two winters. Late December 2012 and March 4, 2012–the clipper to end all clippers!
True, but this mornings call of 2-3 inches now looks like a pipe dream!
It is sure looking like we are just going to run out of moisture pretty soon unless something builds in. At least that’s what it seems to my amateur eyes.
Nothing showing up in Bowling Green area where is the explosive development that was going to happen?? STORMS on the gulf has killed this snow potential!
I’m glad that Owensboro was never really supposed to get any snow from this. My family can safely travel to my home for Thanksgiving and I don’t have to worry about poor road conditions. Just looking on the positive side 🙂
anybody see TG SHUCK facebook post re posting SULLIVAN at NWS in the ville calling out BAILEY pretty much. well talking bout how TV guys hype storm to get ratings while trashing NWS. interesting but actually tru.
NWS hyped this one also as of this morning, now they are backing off! I call that now casting!
I saw the facebook post and was surprised by it.
CB says, “Etu, TG?” before the knife of words takes the fatal strike.
With CBs map, it would have to be a big miss not to cover the range of it.
Is this the post you are referring to, just to be clear?
I really need to post this comment on my Meteorologist Joe Sullivan Facebook account, but need to maintain a degree of impartiality there: It’s hard to compete with someone who has accurately predicted 20 of the past 6 snow events! There are plenty of really good TV meteorologist out there, but unfortunately there are a few who would have you believe only THEY know how to forecast, care about you, or can keep you safe during hazardous weather. Just remember, the mission of every NWS office (and meteorologist) is the protection of lives and property; the mission of every commercial TV station is profit. To increase their profit, stations need ratings, which brings in ad revenue. One of the easiest ways to increase ratings is by hype. There is pressure on all local broadcasters to do this, to one degree or another. The TV mets who work in partnership with the NWS have my utmost respect. The ones who trash the NWS in public forums deserve none.
Interesting discussion on the NWS Jackson site. They are mentioning blizzard conditions at times in eastern Ky tomorrow. Obviously this would be a scattered type of event, and not a widespread, long term thing, but sounds like local accumulations could get quite significant.
Other stations now saying only about an inch for central ky now…..cold air not moving in as quickly as once thought .
Chris not rapid firing updates says it all, this is a underachiever, I’m sure the NWS will adjust their advisory maps in a few hours!
Todd you sir need anxiety medication, your complaining about the lack os snow is hilarious.. Calm down and step
Way from the radar…lol
Thanks Dr. , I will go take some of my meds, don’t take my comments so personal also, this is a blog of opinions yours has been duly noted 🙂
Rofl
NWS still calling for 2 inches overnight in lexington metro
annoying. ^^
Rolo , your thoughts on the snow for Burgin?
That snow line better get here in a hurry. Moisture is running out.
Looking at the radar it looks like central ky is about to get the ultimate shaft. Who da thunk it.
Looking at the radar it looks like central ky is about to get the ultimate shaft. Who da thunk it.
Cool
Not sure where the rain snow line is in ky.
Accuweather has it bowing down from Cincy. Towards Frankfort with moisture all the way back to Nashville. That is a good two hours worth of precip as long as it keeps pulling north. Hopefully the cold air settles in over the next hour and you all in Frankfort/Lex. Will at least get to see some early season snow falling. Here in Louisville we have sleet/rain/flurries and that is about to end.
Lucy has yanked that football from Charlie Brown yet again! at least for Madison County. Radar shows what moisture is left breaking up southwest of us. I let myself get excited again and BAM! Oh well.
Welcome to central ky winter weather.
IBIWISI — lot’s of cold rain… Doesn’t bother me any more. I have no faith in winter snowfall forecasting. It is little more than guess work. They can “predict” 4, 8 , 14 inches even; but what happens, with very rare exception, is a lot of cold rain and a deck dusting…
You don’t care? You won’t be checking out forecasts, models, or visit here and make more comments like this? IBIWISI
Oh, the science, the modeling and the math really interest me but I don’t get my hopes up when snow is in the forecast any longer. Too much experience now to do that…
The moisture will be gone I bet between the change over occurs.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t all along it supposed to be the wrap around moisture this evening and tonight that brings us the snow? They forecasted rain all day today and wrap around snow for tonight yet all of you act like you’re going to go jump off a cliff. It’s weather people, not the end of the world either way.
Oh…the voice of reason. Thank you for your correction. Geez. We are just discussing things.
I positive spin the constant misses! No significant snow means no shoveling my uphill driveway. Winning! 🙂
It does seem to have shifted more to the east as far as most snow, but what the heck do I know? Perhaps low end of the map for us now?
……………………………………………………………………………..?
I think so…the Defender Radar on the news at 4:30 showed snow in Lawrenceburg–23 miles west of Lexington and the transition happening in Lexington. We currently have light rain mixed with an occasional sleet pellet and a temp of 34.2 degrees.
For what it’s worth a little snow falling in east frankfort, deck duster probably, but 1 inch. Would be nu e as far as the calendar goes 🙂
See I can be positive after my meds! Sarah?
Deck duster in Lawrenceburg. Three in November plus one measurable. This would be a good winter by the last two years’ standards. One EPIC snow and we are done 🙂
What I do in winter forecasts is cut the highest and lowest number by half. So my call for snowfall is 1-2 inches (according to CB’s map), but 0.5 to 1.5 (locally 2in) inches of snow according to the NWS forecast.
So I win I said we would have more inches of rain than inches of snow so by your theory I win 😉
HPC is still impressed. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
Well we had about 2 inches this morning up in Northern Kentucky, so we were surprized in the other direction. We expected a dusting to a half inch overnight and wound up with way more. It was a very beautiful, wet snow that clung to everything.
See pictures on the Boone County Arboretum facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/BCArboretum
So….I’m obviously a snow lover just as the rest of you and I am disappointed with the latest turn of the weather. With the moisture nearly tapped out, there’s virtually no chance of of those “upper end” snow totals coming to fruition. I just want to say thanks Chris for keeping us in the loop. As for those of you who blame would like to Chris for the hype…..blame the models instead because his reports come from the tools he has at his disposal that were wrong yet again. Not Chris’ fault….
Chris doesn’t use just models though anybody can look at a model and interpret them other things are involved in forecasting
Agree the models fail 90% of the time with winter weather in KY, Its not Chris!
Except for the infamous dusting of 97 I have yet to see a winter forecast overperform.
Slain falling in North Richmond (sleet and mainly rain).
Rain turned to sleet about 30 min ago. Now it full blown heavy sleet with flakes becoming more and more common here in Lexington.
Sleeting in Versailles with an occasional flake
Correction, snow now in Versailles.
Wild how a few miles makes a difference around here. Just cold rain in Richmond and temp seems to have went up a tad.
I know many of you are disappointed in me and how I constantly underperform. Perhaps you should blame your CO2 emissions and use of carbon fuels. I will tease you snow lovers further this winter, and trust no modeling.
backside just now intensifying folks, be QUICK DRILL FOR EASTERN KY CENTRAL POOPED OUT LUCK. the southern part not pulling up this way, that was supposed to pump moisture to re develop.. still see the 2-4 for eastern ky
Looks like the only thing that blew up around here is gas prices today. This seemed as sure a thing as could be. Not even rain in Richmond at the moment.
CB did day this was through tomorrow, so we shall see. Looks like even the low end of the map could be challenged at the moment for a lot of areas.
Light rain is back!
Snow now. Winning!
Rain again – not winning.
beautiful big flakes in downtown lex.
Nice deck duster in Frankfort, maybe we can squeeze out a half inch before this ends??
Beautiful snow in West end of Georgetown
Chris just showed the ole dry slot over Frankfort on TV, deck duster is about it I guess!
Looks like some more light snow moving in from the west. Ground is covered here in Lawrenceburg although the temp is still 32.9. I don’t mind though–I have to meet a client in Lexington at 0800 tomorrow. Ground with snow and streets clear equals a win win.
Agree, I should not complain with a nice dusting tonight, it is still November, most years we would love this much snow on Christmas morning!
Still waiting lol.
Test.
Well the ground is a little white in Lex……..This is the 3rd time it has snowed (at least somewhat) before Thanksgiving…….
Any snow BEFORE Thanksgiving is a bonus….. 🙂
Good for you Mark we havent seen anything in snow straved EKy lol.
I knew rolo would resume his mercurial ways.
Finally a few white flakes in southern Madison. A very few. 2-4″ I don’t think so tonight. Not even the low end. Drat
No snow in Somerset,doesn’t look like we will receive anything down here!
Models 0 / DOME 1
I’m keeping score this year 😉
Another Dolly Parton storm. Big bust.
That’s what I keep saying. The models just don’t equal reality. The strange thing is, they don’t seem to correct for repeated errors.
It started snowing here about 7pm, but its slacked up quite a bit. I doubt we get an inch total.
Has the possibility of snow for the southeastern part of the state been missed? Seems like moisture is gone and temps are staying to warm. Can anyone give any information?
Thats what I guessed would happpen maybe once th3 winds shift we mau get some from the lakes
To answer your question….yes. Moisture is gone. Maybe some flurries to come….not even a dusting to be had here through the night and into tomorrow (Middlesboro area). Another letdown and the trend continues…..33+ degrees cold miserable rain, then nasty cold temps when the rain leaves.
It’s been snowing in greenup county for about 45 minutes..heavy..ground is covered! Looks like we are still in middle of precip
Another bust of a snow storm. God please break the snow dome. Chris does a great job, just bad info from the computers. Thanks for the hard work Chris. We love you.
Nws office might as well cancel the winter weather advisory for Somerset London Corbin areas, temps are way too warm for snow, no change over here and the moisture is almost dried up! It is still above freezing here and I don’t look for temps to start falling below freezing until well after midnight, another busted forecast for southern KY yet again!
Snowing where I am just north of Somerset.
I’m down futher south in Somerset down US south 27 and is doing absolutely nothing here!
Why does anyone pay any attention to these fantasy models? We will never learn. They always underperform. I hope people don’t pay money for these models.
Amen!
Chris does a great job but these computer models are
Terrible – even the vaunted European model whiffed big time.
But again, it is not Chris Bailey, he’s the best wx guy
I’ve listened to in 42 yrs!
I agree, all the moisture is gone up to the northeast and if E/SE KY receives any snow it will be because of the up slopes from the mountains, like I said southern KY will NOT repeated NOT receive any snow from this system, cold air took too long to catch up with the rain to change it to snow and looking at the temps now we are still sitting at 34 degrees and have been there for almost 2-3 hours now, so like I said by the time temps start to drop possibly by midnight all the moisture will be gone from the area, I say this winter will be like all the others…a complete bust, I’m ready for warm weather to come back already!!!
I just want to know why Sarah is not prescribing more meds for these snow starved folks ??
( see earlier post) 😉
We’ll winter 1Bailey zero bust Have to call it as we see it. Moisture as always gone as we get teases with brief snow falling.. I know models said snow but other Forcaster was not bullish as far as totals went.. But BAiley went with the models and his gut. Afraid if we see10 inches total this winter we be lucky. But the hype machine worked as blog been seeing a lot hits and WKYT. Most watch channel during 530to630
As far as snow, CB basically said the same thing in his winter outlook: Cold but not a lot of snow.
Every time I see a snowfall forecast, I cut the lowest and highest total in half. So I was spot on with a forecast of 0.5-1 inch, locally 1.5 inches according to the NWS forecast!
Funky like a monkey Rolo Weeeeeeeeee!
Well not disappointed because we never get snow here. Always misses. Well on the bright side, those thanksgiving travel plans should be better. So that’s a good thing .
I don’t know why everyone is sitting here saying it is a bust. The snow was never forecasted to start in my area until after midnight and hourly forecasts are giving greater than 60% chances of snow until noon tomorrow including 80 to 90% chance overnight to the early hours tomorrow. Chris’s forecast was total snowfall through Wednesday. Not through Tuesday evening.
I would give anything if someone would do a study to find out why we can’t get snow here.I am so disappointed.
The good news for snow fans we got snow. The bad news for snow fans is another apparent under performer. This is not pontification, but realityfication… I made that word up.
Truly bizarre for so many in a row for many years. Regardless of models the results are what matters. This early event had the best shot in many a moon and still- meh. What is the underperform and overperform ratio for this region since the late 90’s? About 100:1?
I am a snow Fan BubbaG and havent seen one flake yet.Of course its not suppose to start till late but where is the moisture coming from?
The secondary upper level low in Alabama and Georgia now is supposed to take much of the same path as the primary low did last night and today and move up the eastern side of the Appalachians tonight and tomorrow. This time cold air will be in place which should make this all snow after midnight at the latest. The radar is already starting to fill in some in Tennessee and moving northeast. Look for this to continue.
Thank you so much for explaining.
You’re welcome. I just don’t see why people are thinking this event is already over. It’s really not even started.
Per CB:
“We will see a very slow moving band of moderate to heavy snow working across central and eastern Kentucky this evening and overnight.”
The issue though is this more east now? Hence my point the map may be the lower range around here (central KY).
Wow, what radar!
This. Maybe possible we will see the low end of the map range. The forecast stated a total though tomorrow morning. The point getting us all negative is the snow was supposed to start in the evening get a lot colder and steady snow. The lack of this so far happening suggests no upper level snow map ranges.
Let us hope there is not more salt than snow in the AM 😉 That stuff is nasty when jogging and a little wind in the face.
Look at radar loop…looks like moisture is filling in across eastern ky
remember this site for the most part is about possibilities not a forecast. it is like I could argue that University of Kentucky football will win 10 games next year. I could give an argument based on statistical facts and change over on other teams we play.
but would I get on here and forecast that happening next year. no way.
That is a nasty combo. The Cats football results and this region’s snow results. Rough!
🙂 ! Ouch
Moisture also appears to be coming out of Mississippi as well headed northeast.
Hopefully that is the catalyst to recharge this snow possibility, although it’s still coming down in London with new band that just formed on the back side of today’s system.
I have bragged about this website and Chris bialy to anyone who would listen for 2 winters….this makes 3. But I am losing faith.
Also, I would bet that here in London I don’t even need to scrape my windshield because it won’t even be frozen……I don’t belibpve it will hit 31 degrees tonight.
Sorry Bubba but you ARE pontificating just like you do every winter. and rolo is doing his usual nonsense as well.
And you are taking the usual moral self apposed high ground higher ground. Ain’t it Grand? 🙂 It is as logarithmicly absolute as our trend 🙂
🙂
You are actually making a false comment, but ok.
You see! You did it again!
As far as the snow map, it looks like it is more east, so we are probably not hitting the snow map range. Slick out there, none the less! WWA for a lot of us has been canceled. At least that is what local news said just now.
Seems IBLIWISI is the most practical stance going forward. Models suck lemons.
I’M happy we don’t get the snow totals that were predicted…Just think what 8 inches of heavy wet snow could of done ..I like my turkey under the lights, not in the dark..
Come on, who you fooling, ready 4 snow, you know candles with 8 inches of snow would make your year 😉
Nope,like my cold turkey in a bottle..The gobbler really warm..
Just because people like snow does not mean that they like power outages, car wrecks, or whatever.
Ironically, there are a lot more accidents with little snow than bigger snow. These little snows are more dangerous and suck for snow fans. Big juicy lemons.
Very light snow in East Bernstadt
Officially a BUST!!! NWS now has dropped WWA for most of central and southcentral KY. Also, here in Pulaski Co we have been dropped from a possible 1-3inch total to maybe an inch. Precip chances also cut in half from 100% to 50% tonight and from 60% to 30% tomorrow. Another example of all hype and no results. This is not aimed at you Chris! We just don’t get snow anymore here. I won’t believe it till I see it falling heavily and ON THE GROUND!
Yep. This county is always in the warm nose of all these systems. The rest of the state sees twice what we do per winter. Dead center of the dome is Somerset.
All right people…. Who stolen our snow…Come on..Fess up..Bubba,Andy,Todd..
Cold air and moisture are more like oil and water in this region. They do not mix.
the DOME!
Not me I have not seen a flake.
You know what I had lol same thing I said 2 days ago cold rain and was told I was wrong lol
I am going to be stuck with cold Rain till I am an old woman in a thread bare kaftan.
It’s pouring here in greenup..around 1.5 inches on the ground
Congrats you win the snow award for today!
Its gotten a bit heavier in East Bernstadt since my post an hour ago.
Where are you Todd?
This storm has mostly been an a rain event.. An epic fail… It’s in salyersville
The Special Weather Statement is now saying MORE ENHANCED SNOW IS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA..I think a small section of Ky will get some snow but most areas will likely get very little.
Draw a line from Ashland to Corbin and anywhere east of that line may get a quick inch or two.