Good Friday everyone. Today marks the third day of December and we are now 3 for 3 in days feature some snow around here. That number is going to climb much higher over the next several days as we have a pretty amazing pattern to kick off December. Cold and snow is in the forecast for much of the state each day into the middle of next week… at least.
All eyes are on the weekend system that will lay down a swath of accumulating snows across the region. In the short term… some light snows and flurries will be pulling away early today. This could cause a few slick spots on area roads early this morning. Here is a look at the radar…
Temps today will be in the mid and upper 30s for the north and east and low 40s across the west. If your thermometer fails to hit 40 today… chances are it won’t for, at least, the next week.
A clipper will dive southeastward toward the region late Tonight into Saturday. The track on this still looks to be across Missouri then eastward through Tennessee and off the Carolina coast. Light snow and a mix would break out from northwest to southeast early Saturday across the central and western parts of the state. During the afternoon… snow will rule across the north and east while the south and west sees a mix and even some cold rain. Colder air will surge in behind the departing low with everyone going over to snow by Saturday evening. I really like what the GFS is showing…
This setup will lay down a good 1″-3″ for those areas that remain all snow. There has been a slight colder trend to the models over the past few runs and this MAY push that snow line a smidge farther south. It is across south central Kentucky that I have the biggest questions on snowfall because of the mix and rain and the timing of the change to snow. Here is my latest CALL FOR SNOWFALL from Saturday into Sunday Morning…
Again… my lowest confidence is across south central Kentucky. I will have a few more updates to that map before the first flakes start to fly.
VERY cold air will then surge in here for Sunday as northwesterly winds combine with disturbances dropping into the region to produce snow squalls. This will be the start of a wicked period of wintry weather that will carry us into the middle of the new week. Here is a map I made to illustrate what I expect from the snow portion of this time frame…
Some POSSIBLE highlights of this period…
– Snow squalls and snow showers should lay down accumulating snows each day for several areas… especially in the east.
– Temps will be VERY cold. Highs will generally run in the 20s with a few days struggling to get out of the low 20s for some. Lows will hit the low and mid teens with a shot at single digits if we can get a clear night over snow.
– Winds will be gusty as well and can lead to wind chills that may approach 0 at times.
Wicked enough for you? If not… hang tough as I see a lot of wintry weather through the rest of the month.
I will have more updates later today so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
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I’m impressed by the pattern setting up the NAO appears to be in the tank for now. Everything indicated cold for the next 2 weeks. there is going to be a lot of lake effect snow this week. Keeping my eye on the 11th timeframe as well.
i think i may trip to south bend area to experience some bigtime snow. with all this bitter cold i just hope we can get the southern stream jet involved
nothing to get excited about if ur a REAL SNOW LOVER, yea a dusting to a inch, YIPPIEEEEEE. NOT
after this month as i posted few days ago, it really looks bad for JAN into FEB if u are a OLD SCHOOL LUVER. WARM air will rule overall.
Roadways are slick in the Frankfort area. Widespread freezing fog!
Some slick spots, especially bridges, in Johnson County this morning as well.
Wrecks all over the place in Floyd Co. this morning. Several roads blocked due to the accidents.
I have often said that the NAM did a great job with clipper systems last year. I’d bank on it in the 24-48 hour range until it proves otherwise. Today, it’s showing a heavy snowband setting up right in the heart of the Bluegrass. Hmm..
Fog was thick in Winchester this morn on the way to the office.
Chris, how early tomorrow does it look like the snow will begin here? I’m in Johnson County.
I’m guessing by this evening the northern and north eastern parts of ky. will see their first Winter Weather Advisories being posted…
OK, weather geeks. I have to drive to Roanoke VA through West Virgina on Monday. Trouble?
Thought this video was cool, check it out. Thunder snow in Buffalo
LATEST NAM SHOWS 1 INCH OF LIQUID OVER CENTRAL KY=10 INCHES OF SNOW….ALSO HAS IT FURTHER SOUTH AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS FIRST THOUGHT
Why has the snow been so fluffy? I’m not complaining, I just thought it had to be really cold like last year to get fluffy snow.
Also, what caused the heavy fog this morning?
I can tell you by Monday evening that most of the area from Beckley to WV will have 3-7″s on the ground. The crews on the WV turnpike and I64 usually do a good job keeping them clean. Just go slow and be careful on Bridges.
WE NEED SOME FOR SIGHT CHRIS ON THE LATES DATA AN WHEN DOES ANYONE THINK NWS WILL START ISSUING WARNINGS???…
Thanks for the update, Chris. I know now to make sure the longjohns are ready for next week! (Since I go in and out in my job,m that is very important! 😉 )
As for the weekend, I expect that Tim, Andy and myself will get about as much snow as usual from these things….a trace to none! But, it looks loke someone is going to get early snow love for sure! Good Friday, everyone!
Did you guys see the latest 12z NAM snowfall?? It has a bullyeye right over central ky cutting through Louisville and SE line from there. A good 3-5 inches by the latest run. However new GFS only has 1-2″ for same region. Which one will be right?? Wonder what mr. BAILEY will go with…
Yes NAM is going all snow for LEX now. GFS is coming onboard as we speak. Starting to look like Chris is going to nail this one with the low tracking into TN. First real snow of the season about to come to Lexington….
Anyone wanna toss out thoughts on about Franklin/Shelby area this weekend – WXman?
Chris, love the site as always and when I talk about weather casts, I refer to this site for my info. More accurate than any. And lots of fun.
Any thoughts on La Nina impacts post-Dec?
Hi Gang… I will get an update on a bit later this afternoon. Looks like around 3 or so.
I don’t really look for warnings to be issued, more likely, it will be advisories, if anything. I know that TG did a good job last night, talking about the possibilities of black ice, and apparently, with good reason. Saw wrecks all over in the Lexington area!
yeah the NAM is spitting out 1″ of liquid over parts of the eastern half of the state…hmmm, hope its an all snow event for us as well.
Boyle County:Mostly Cloudy 42* a light dusting of snow this morning.
Thoughts of upcoming system http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/maps.php
Should see about 2″ for weekend and maybe 4″ total by Wednesday. Of course this will be total and all will probably not be on ground at same time for many areas.
Still, decent chance kids will miss school a few days. Especailly them there hollar’ kids! Sun is not seen in those areas until spring 😉
A Cincinnati TV station revised their snow track/total forecast at noon – they are saying the storm is going to track further north and are giving 1″ or less for south of Cinci. I don’t trust these guys…Chris you have been MUCH more accurate with your snow forecasts last winter so I’m going with you on this one.
My bad..that was a .25-.50 instead of 1″ but still impressive if its all STICKING SNOW!!..
Average of 2″ seems about right, since some areas may be have less as CB mentioned.
CB is the most aggressive for the coming events, since local mets are calling for “some” snow but not suggesting more than 1.5″.
I think that the events have slightly more of chance to be a little better than expected, rather than worse.
Just a few degrees & hours and BOOM! 🙂
With the cold air in place, I expect at least some eastern KY schools to be out some next week.
Not seeing that, but maybe they have models suggesting the system will draw more north. Then again, this could be why CB suggests south central KY may get less.
Not seeing how eastern KY at least does not get several inches by mid week.
Oh well, if CB backtracks later today, that would suggest the Ohio mets are correct.
I seriously doubt it will be an all sticking snow. With temps. around 40 again today the ground isn’t frozen solid yet. I think I-64 corridor gets hit hardest with 2-3″ of snow right now…
Just the other day these Cincy mets were saying that the clipper would track south of the area.
I guess we shall see…
yeah, its already UP to 45 here in knox co. with high clouds filtering in now..its alot warmer down here than up in the bluegrass region..
Just wanted to say hello BubbaG! Patty from Versailles.
Hey Rolo! I don’t comment much anymore. Just wanted to say Hey!
Thanks Shane.
The SREF does not look promising for temps on Saturday. The freeze line wants to go way north.
Howdy!
Just went over several different models again, and all of them show the low tracking into Tennessee. Eastern KY looks to get hammered tomorrow because it’ll still be snowing after sunset there. Dangerous roadways for sure east of I-75 this weekend.
WXman, what’s it looking like for the morehead/ashland area this weekend?
man if the NAM was right SE KY get a hammer job for early december but that aint going to happen though. fun to look at anyway.
I will say this as of right now it look pretty good for eastern and far SE KY to get 4 plus inches. so far SE KY is my sweet spot for the storm after dark Saturday.
CB MAP look ok except higher amounts in the faaaaaaaaaaar SE KY range. letcher county etc the mountains.
snow advisory for nky.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ092&warncounty=KYC117&firewxzone=KYZ092&local_place1=Fort+Wright+KY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory
This is a classic battle between the nam & gfs. I just spoke with Tom Wills he thinks there will be little or no accumulation.
winter weather adv for lexington region as well. my thinking is about the 12z nam with lighter qpf. 1-3 lex, lou, cin, ash, jkl.
Morehead is about to get rocked. I think they’ll see the most snow in central KY. Eastern KY will also get a good thumpin’.
LMK issues Winter Weather Advisory valid at Dec 04, 1:00 AM EST for Anderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Bullitt, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard, Harrison, Henry, Jefferson, Jessamine, Lincoln, Madison, Mercer, Nelson, Nicholas, Oldham, Scott, Shelby, Spencer, Trimble, Washington, Woodford [KY] and Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson, Orange, Scott, Washington [IN] till Dec 04, 7:00 PM EST
Avg. December temp. at my house so far: 27.9 degrees! It’s several below average, and it’s about to get colder next week. This is that balance that we talk about nature always keeping.
NWS in JKL…says (for my area knox co.) A MESS!!!…snow starting tonight,snow/rain mix tommorrow, then FREEZING RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT… If thats the case,,I’d just rather it pass over to the north..
well my local forecast is a pure mess,,,snow tonight, mix tomorrow, and freezing rain tomorrow night!!…YUCK!! I sure hope its an all snow event…but these clippers have a mind of their own and the difference is NIGHT AND DAY north and south of the low…
What do you think John? 18Z Nam went lighter with amounts.
moderation
OK…all of the JKL…viewing area is under an advisory with the exception of 5 counties…:( and one of them is mine…oh well…
Jackson predicting 3-6 inches for us. 😀
I can’t believe that Pulaski County is under the winter weather advisory. Really shocking.
yeah, i thought the same thing. actually I dont think I’ve ever seen an advisory map quit like this one…lol..
I’m kinda scared cuz I herd dat we mite git 2-3 feet a snow in Lextown ya neva no cuz I seen em say we bout ta git 1-2 inches and we git like a foot of snow so I’m gonna make sure I hunker down n git ready for these snowflakes to start whippin around. I’m gonna go out on a limb n say we get over 30 feet a snow this winter. Guess I’m gonna have to let my 17 dogs git in the bed with me this winter cuz ya no its gonna be a bad one. Whaddyall think?
If Im reading the accu weather rite they are saying a major snow storm for next week…. any one else got anything to ad to this??? also i guess winchester,ky will get hammered this week end : )
I think he’s pulling your chain. Taking a shot at Tom Willis because Tom didn’t care how big of a storm potential there was…he still downplayed it and almost always went with a lower total than 95% of METs. The real Belski wouldn’t have thrown him under the bus on a forum such as this one. My personal thoughts at this point is forget the models. Just look at that radar building to the NW! IT looks like a go for at least 2″ region wide with 4-5″ possibilities in the bigger snowburst areas. Nice start to December guys.
I would not worry about 30 feet. Really.
Tom Wills was not a big snow lover, but was always direct on his forecasting. If Tom says little to none then that is what we got….