Good Tuesday to one and all. This is shaping up to be another wild and wicked weather day across the state and is similar to what we went through Thanksgiving day and night. Heavy rain…. some thunderstorms… gusty winds… a big temp swing… then a taste of winter weather. Sound familiar? That is basically the weather today into tonight in a nutshell and is close to a carbon copy to last week.
Let me break it all down for you in a little greater detail…
– Heavy rains and thunderstorms will be with us today into this evening… especially central and eastern Kentucky as the rains will taper off in the west by early afternoon.
– Rain totals will be on the order of 1″-2″ with local amounts to 3″ possible. This could lead to some local high water issues with the southeastern part of the state having the highest threat.
– Winds today will be cranking with gusts to 40mph possible for some.
– We will see another big temp swing from west to east today. Readings in the west will fall into the 30s by later this afternoon while the east sees readings around 60 or so.
– The cold air will sweep in from the west from this afternoon into tonight. By morning… temps will fall into the 20s across the entire region.
– The race is on between the cold air and the back edge of the rain shield. I suspect it will catch it in a few places meaning a quick switch to light snow can occur… especially east.
– Snow showers and flurries will be around for Wednesday for central and eastern Kentucky. Highs will range from the freezing mark in the east to mid 30s west.
Here is what you need to track today’s wild weather…
Today’s Rainfall
Current Winds
Current Temps
As far as the rest of the weather goes… we have a lot of potential for cold and snow through next week. I still like a weak system to move through here later Thursday into early Friday. This doesn’t have much moisture… but should produce some light snow and flurries.
The weekend system and the storm next week continue to be on the radar with the models all trying to get a handle on everything thats going on. The GFS is coming around to the Canadian and European models for the Saturday and Sunday period. The trend for the weekend is still for a mix and rain early to snow. That said… there is a colder trend to the latest model runs as they take the low farther south across the Tennessee Valley. Timing differences are showing up and that is to be expected with this type of setup. This one needs to be watched as it can lay down some snow for much of this area.
Next week will see the threat of a big storm across the eastern half of the country.
I will have an update coming later today to touch more on the wintry aspect of all these systems so be sure to check back. Until then… have fun tracking the wind and rain and take care.
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Good morning Chris. Thanks for keeping us updated. Wow, what a change coming our way!
Like cats and digs here in Richmond!
MJ… thanks for putting a nice AFD out this morning.
I’m banking on the system sliding too far south to affect us in a wintry fashion, but it’ll be fun to watch.
I just listened to Joe Bastardi over at accuweather and he is talking about a big storm around the 7th of Dec. for this area. He also was talking about the winters of 1950 & 1992 and this is a similar setup headed our way. Anyone agree with this?? I know Chris has been talking about that time frame as well…I’m getting excited a week out…probably to just get dissapointed again!!
well hello!! another Tim…lol…
Its been raining here in knox co. very heavily off and on since around 9pm last night creeks and streams are running bankful, and the heavy rain continues… close to 2″ since it started late last night.
We have had bouts of very heavy rain here, but most of it has just been very steady and soaking. Temp is currently about 54 degrees.
Looks like December is bringing the cold weather with it, for sure! Everybody allow extra time today, and watch for ponding on roads!
COOL !! Intellicast.com has a new radar go check it out, you can choice, temps/cloudcover/stormcells/..etc.. its pretty neat.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx
welcome aboard another Tim!!..lol..
Welcome aboard another Tim !!..LOL..
DE-JA VU ??? Temps. close to 60 with rain in the east, with upper 30’s and snow showing up on radar in western ky. and Tn.
So how do we feel about next week? I think we will get something.
well guess its time for my fall BATH break, lol wash tub filled up and ready.
this winter going be like 1987 by the end of it, u remember the BIG DADDY that fell late in the season? oh I do we CLAY COUNTY TIGERS won STATE TITLE that year and went to Indiana to face MARION county their STATE CHAMPS and there was 2 feet plus on ground in GUNCHESTER when we left.
as far as next week goes, right now u can forget about anything major as far as a snowstorm.
but as u know MODELS can but a bottle a RUM and get funky like a monkey.
IMO I think the GFS has it right as of now.
Why no Winter Forecast this year? No outlook equals overall poor snow potential.
I know we need the rain but I sure hate days like this where it rains daylight/dark..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR…
LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 830 PM EST TUESDAY
* AT 1024 AM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
MORE HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OVER TENNESSEE
AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ANOTHER INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF SHOULD FALL OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA
THROUGH 2 PM EST…ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF A SOMERSET TO MONTICELLO LINE. ALTHOUGH
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED…FLOODING OF CREEKS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN COLLECTS INTO THE
LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO …LONDON…CORBIN…MONTICELLO…SOMERSET…
WHITLEY CITY…STEARNS…WILLIAMSBURG…WOODBINE…ALPINE…
BALDROCK…BARK CAMP…BEULAH HEIGHTS…BUNCH…LILEY…AND
GOLD BUG.
creeks are running outta the banks here in the Bimble area of Barbourville now.
Check out this mid-upper level setup for next week:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_174s.gif
I think GFS is still a bit off though right now..
All you twitter users, be sure to also follow @iembot_jkl as there are continuous weather updates posted. Just learned about it this morning.
Kinda looks like ET lol
KNOX COUNTY SCHOOLS DISMISSING @ 1:30 due to FLOODING !!!
Yup, textbook Omega Block right there.
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
EAST CENTRAL LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
SOUTHWESTERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 730 PM EST
* AT 140 PM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR
MORE WAS OVER TENNESSEE AND MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. SO FAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AN INCH TO AND INCH
AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 430 PM
EST.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE
BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO…BARBOURVILLE…HARLAN…MANCHESTER…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…ADD…AGES…ALVA…ARJAY…ARTEMUS…
ARTHUR…ASHER…ASHERS FORK…AVIS…BAILEY CREEK…BAILEYS
SWITCH…BALKAN…BANKS…BARDO…BARNYARD…BAUGHMAN…
BAXTER…BENHAM…BENITO…BENTLEY STATION…BIG FORK…
BIG LAUREL…BIG ROCK…BIMBLE AND BINGHAMTOWN.
AT 128 PM EST…THE EMERGENCEY MANAGER IN BELL COUNTY REPORTED
FLOODING OF SOME POOR DRIANAGE AREAS IN OR NEAR MIDDLESBORO AND IN A
FEW OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
PROLONG FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS AND LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING IN NEW
AREAS. URBAN STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN
Not to sharp on weather maps, what does that mean?
If I am correct it basically means that we could be locked into the same weather pattern for a long period of time. Whatever pattern that might be! Someone correct me if I am wrong not good on weather but love the blog.
we’ve got some serious flash flooding taking place here in knox co.. many,many roads under water and heavy rains continue….
yep TIM its rough in Clay/Gunchester as well.
this will bring the JUNKERS out afterwards looking to score scrap metal up and down the river banks.
anything next week look to move to far south as far as a big system goes. as any thing that does develop will be supressed tooooo fur south.
but come tomm it could change as many of us HARDCORE JUNKIES know with MODEL MADDNESS 2011.
Methinks no snow this go around. Not like last week when we got a good coating.
Very intense band over towards Somerset – Bowling Green. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some river flooding across southeastern kentucky.
I noticed that too, another 1″ or so for southern KY? I’ve noticed that most of the creeks around Laurel are full, or coming out of their banks. This next round of moderate rain will probably cause some flash flooding in the region.
u 2 guys are bout 3 hours late, flooding ON GOING for most of S/SE KY.lol
that band u see just make it last little longer.
My electricity just came back on here (just north of Hazard) at my house. I had a terrible time driving home from work. Pouring rain, glare from headlights, someone riding my bumper, me afraid to speed up, and got home to no electricity. If I was a drunk, I’d get drunk. LOL
Basically, the flow moves around the top of the high, then pours into the eastern U.S. This brings colder air to us. And possibly unsettled weather.