Good Saturday to one and all. The first wave of our winter storm has come and gone and was a very well behaved storm system. Areas of western and northern Kentucky got smacked with a lot of ice and heavy snow, while areas of the east and southeast picked up flooding rains.
Louisville and Covington picked up record snowfall for the day and a few spots came in with 6″ totals. I see some complaining in the comments section… about not getting a snowstorm they weren’t supposed to even get. It’s December 7th and we have had major winter events across the state, it’s snowed since late October and November was 4 degrees colder than normal. I simply don’t get some of you.
Back to the weather… I will have a full post coming later today. The highlights…
– The next system rolls in tonight with a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow developing from south to north. That continues into Sunday and targets more central and east than west.
– Another wave moves in on Monday with a bit of a mix.
– Yet another system tries to impact the region by Monday night into Tuesday.
Here are some tracking tools to tide you over until the main update…
Current temperatures
Winds
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort
Frankfort
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
Take care.
Get some sleep Chris.Good job as always. Little disappointing here in Nicholasville,but YOU dont make or control the weather,people need to realize that. Keep up the great work.
Just gets frustrating when you are too far east, too far west, too far north, or too far south, Chris—forecasted or not. That’s all. You know a lot of us on here have snow envy; and if we don’t get it, we’re cranky. Part of it. Nothing on your part to find fault with, even if we want to scream at you for not getting what we want.
Be gentle with us, CB! It’s just pent up frustration and impatience with the positioning of it all from get go! The places that have gotten it repeatedly over the years while we’ve waited have made us a bit testy! 😉 Keep up the good work!
It’s payback for 1998. We must wait another 75 years for another snow of over 6 inches. lol
Chris, you’re in a field where you must say what people NEED to hear and not what they want to hear. Not only do you do that well but you do it promptly showing respect for others in that they will take what they want or need from your expertise and care. How they respond is on them, but you can know they’ve heard what they needed to. No matter how you look at it, job well done with the best intent. I greatly appreciate that.
Don’t worry about the complaining Mr. B. I think you do understand it though – yesterday was hard to take if you lived east of Louisville and are a fan of snow – seeing all of that snow literally on your doorstep while your back yard gets literally inch, after inch, after inch of COLD, cold rain. Winter stinks around this part of the world because so much of the frozen crap that does fall from the sky is NOT snow.
I am thankful yesterday did not turn into a major ice event for Central KY. Feeling for those in Tenn., Ark., and Texas right now.
Another thing I think you understand is that the weather modeling for winter in the Ohio-Tennessee valley area stinks. I’ve lived in this area most of my life and been amazed at how it seems 3 of the seasons are so easy to forecast but one is not. When the computer models can’t figure storms out with 24 hours or less to go, there’s obviously a problem with the formulas involved, but I wonder sometimes if our part of the world simply doesn’t rank high enough for the modeling to get fixed. You should come up with a model formula that works. Think of it – in addition to GFS, NAM, Euro, etc.. we could have the CB model, and you could become famous as the man who “gets Ohio Valley Winter right.”
Well, I just commented more than I usually do in an entire season. I think you do an awesome job, and I rely on this site daily.
Excellent job on yesterdays storm Chris!!!
Better than the local Mets. And earlier predictions also.
Your the best!
Don’t sweat Waffles. You can’t please everyone.
Chris..for years I’ve been following you..you do an awesome job my friend…some folk need to realize you didn’t get to be chief met. At wkyt because of your looks..lol…in way down in southern tn. Now ..but I still follow you…it could be worse gang y’all could live down here where snow is a really scarse sight..and flurries are a real treat !!!!
You probably had more snow this time than we did LoL 😉
I started coming to this site hoping there would be a dialogue so that us “weateher weenies” could better understand weather systems and patterns. Very little of that done here.
Years ago in Lex there was a met (on WLEX I think) whose name escapes me (maybe Tom something) whom I later saw on TV in D.C. He did the best job of “post auditing” a weather event and explaining why a forecast didn’t verify.
I think that’s what true “weather fans” would like to understand. For example, where do the big snow storms in the Dakotas and MN get all their moisture? And why in KY with access to southern moisture can’t we get cold enough air soon enough and deep enough to produce snow, with exception of lake effect off of lake MI?
I would enjoy that kind of conversation more than the media hype and the grousing, complaining, and second guessing.
If you know of a site like that, would you share, please?
Tonight’s event seems to be losing steam from what I read: Is that incorrect?
Thanks
Thank YOU! I’ve been asking these types of questions over the years and often no one will answer, but sometimes they do.
Some of you need to take a step back and take it for what it is…if you don’t like the winters in Kentucky, then move! Go where the snow is!
Most of us turn to Chris and this blog for information, there are some intelligent, and talented ameteur forecasters on here and there are a bunch of us who have followed this blog for years, back before it had its own site…we would like it to remain. Chris doesn’t have to do this…he doesn’t get any extra to keep this up. Please don’t spoil this with petty rants and immature steam blowing…
AMEN !!!
Well, if you like snow, y’alls sh.ould move to central WV coz we’ve got a few inches on the ground right now 🙂 I have been following Chris since Feb 2010, just after I moved from the UK to the US, and, as we don’t have TV, since then he has been my first “hit” of the morning. I also follow The Weather Space and WxRisk.. most of the time these guys’ observations are pretty similar and, time after time, they have nailed severe weather many days.. even a week to 10 days in advance of the main event. As a result we have been able to totally prepare for severe weather scenarios such as the 3 feet of snow that smacked us at the end of October 2012 with the ensuing 12 day power outage. We were ready, and so were our closest friends and neighbours. Thank You Chris Bailey for ALL that you do!
Chris, you will always get the whingers
I’m happy with the snow cover in the metro. I have 3.9 inches in my yard and it’s great. It’s a festivus miracle. CB updates this blog more than any weather blog in the state that I have found. What more could one want? I’m sorry Bubba and Rolo.
I’m so thankful that God almighty controls the weather. He always knows what’s best for his people. Sometimes weather patterns that we think are unfair are God’s way of showing us that He is in control. God hates pride! Wake up calls are not always bad.
God Bless everyone
It did not seem like folks were in general complaining about a snow storm missing, but that they did not even get the little bit of stuff forecast. There was a sharp cut-off and as far as frozen stuff, a lot did not get a wave, but a ripple or less. As a result, some are probably thinking that the next coming waves will follow the result of this event. To some degree that may be true as far as impact, since no snow or ice on the ground to build from. Just a day or so ago the expectation was power outage potential for the area. Now?
My confusion though is WHY complain about missing a nasty mix of mainly ice? People should be thankful 🙂 I hope these next waves ALSO miss for a nasty mix. Warm air won out for some of us. Winning!
Point being for the next waves, there is nothing on the ground right now (for some) to add and accumulate with. Whatever happens now as a result, “should” not be as bad as could have been for those that got nothing (like Madison): Less total weight on trees, lines and structures.
The negative is smaller events tend to have the most accidents for roads. People need to slow down. Word.
I got alot of the stuff forecasted rain and then more rain
Quote from Chris, “I simply don’t get some of you”.
The posting of the Nam snowfall map yesterday afternoon shows Lexington, Versailles and a good chunk of snow deprived Central KY, (with the exception of Chris Mercers neighborhood, his is not snow deprived) getting significant snow, even if ice and sleet cut into some of the totals. I’m no weatherman and don’t pretend to be so when I see graphs like that I’m once again filled with the false hope that we have the possibility of getting a little more than the 3/4 inch of snow and ice that we got last night, in the Woodford County Area.
Chris’s other statement, “I see some complaining in the comments section… about not getting a snowstorm they weren’t supposed to even get.” Sorry for complaining but after the Nam posting I thought we had a shot, especially since that was practically a live model prediction. Why even use a model for a snow prediction?
Models do not rock, but CB does! In his defense, the way the Cats imploded last night, I thought his post would be a tad more aggressive. That “waffles” poster though apparently needs a hug.
Another quote from Chris: “That is likely too aggressive as I still expect quite a bit of sleet and ice to cut into the totals.” This is what he said after he posted the NAM snowfall map yesterday. Key words…”likely too aggressive” and “quite a bit of sleet and snow to cut into the totals.” Then to point out your own word choices: “…we have the possibility of getting a little more than the 3/4 inch of snow and ice…” and “I thought we had a shot.” You did have a possibility. You did have a shot. It didn’t materialize. I don’t think CB should have to qualify every post by reminding us that the information he is providing is a prediction not a statement of fact. In the case of the NAM map, it wasn’t even Chris’ prediction. His own thoughts after the map indicate he didn’t believe in its accuracy. I’m happy to sell shares in my newly-formed snow removal company headquartered in central Kentucky to anyone who looked at that NAM map and accepted it as a verbatim statement of snowfall totals across Kentucky.
you consider 3/4’s of an inch of snow and ice cutting into the total of 6-8 inches forecast by that model? If you show that model understand people are going to be hopeful, anything wrong with that?
Mike he also said those numbers from the NAM were not likely to happen. Read it all, not just what you to see. I complain about the cold rain cause it sucks…….for my area the forecast was spot on. Cold rain. I enjoy the blog and discussing the possible scenarios that may play out. I appreciate it Chris.
I was on the low end of this one too. An inch might be generous, though I was in the 1-4 category, so I suppose that is still technically within forecast. If it makes you feel any better I had less snow from this storm than the one in November. 🙂
Nah, just poking fun at you, all in fun. 😉
Chris you rock thanks for all you do.
Waffles……I hope you get coal in your stocking.
I just don’t get it. Chris’ forecast was pretty much right on from the beginning. I think some people who read on here ignore the qualifiers that precede each forecast and don’t understand that a forecast is a prediction with probabilities. I didn’t see a single met’s forecast that said “X location will have exactly .31 inches of ice followed by 6.8 inches of snow.” What I did see was every single met (on every single news station and blog) admitting to the difficulty of predicting what would happen. Winter is the same in Kentucky every year. I grew up here and this phrase has stuck with me since I was a small child: If you don’t like the weather in Kentucky, wait a few hours, it will change.” I live in a rural area with one young adult child in a city more than 50 miles away and another away at college. I, for one, am glad for CB’s forewarnings for the potential for ugly or dangerous weather. I use the information to help me as a parent prepare for potentialities. I appreciate being prepared whether or not the potential materializes. Am I let down because we had 1/2 inch ice followed by hours of sleet and only an inch of snow? Of course! I love snow. That isn’t CB’s fault. He told me what may happen, and what happened was within his range of possibilities. It will snow here at some point. When it does, I’ll be prepared. Having lived through 7 days without power after the Ike winds in 2008 and 9 days without power after the 2009 ice storm, being prepared is extremely important to me. It’s why I check this blog daily and then multiple times each day when severe weather MAY occur.
Please keep up the good work Chris! The boyfriend and I are among your many loyal followers who really appreciate the time and effort you put into sharing information.
Seems a selective recollection process of who got what. Like the last few systems of the frozen variety, a wider area was expected with more totals. Some got it and some did not. The some that did not is a pretty big area though, and happens to correlate with the same areas that tend to miss a LOT over the years. High cumulative sensitivity as a result.
The discussion was far more dramatic than what has panned out and likely ditto for the next waves. The models are a bunch of drama queens (or kings) for winter weather in this region. They are not too good with frozen stuff and that is being polite.
Still, it just takes one trend buster to start a new one. As long as we keep missing the big ice, happy camper here 🙂
Those of you with weather knowledge, is the area around BG going to change to rain tomorrow?? Our local mets say yes, BUT I thought I remembered CB saying the models weren’t grasping the cold very well…. Just curious 😉
Seems we would already be in alert mode and seeing things posted by NWS if a significant and imminent event. Even for the last event there was a lead-time. Some areas were late bloomers to be added, but were added a little later. That said, the late bloomers added for this last event did not get much if any (in particular a few border warning areas and about all the advisory areas).
But hey, it’s the weather. It is what it is and I will believe it when I see it. Math formula is: IIWII = IWBIWISI 🙂
BubbaG is correct about the SHARP cut off as I drove home from work in Lexington and in the 15 mile drive to Clays Ferry the ice and nasty potential with it melted away actually and literally. So did the dread caused by previous ice events. VERY thankful for the KY River or whatever keeps N. Madison out of the cross hairs-usually. IIWII!
CB just mentioned an advisory. Though thankfully not a warning, the roads would be just as dangerous.
Oh, wow! Another year of some people not understanding the difference between a computer model and a forecast. Chris puts out the computer models for informational purposes. His forecasts many times do not echo the models verbatim. In the case of this latest storm his forecast on TV pegged my area 100% correctly, yet again. And he forecast this days before the weather websites, NWS, and other METS were on board with this event being as serious as it was. I’m certainly glad Chris has this blog because it allows me to plan travel and the like in a more sensible manner than if I simply looked at the mostly inaccurate sources on the internet and even on other Lexington channels when it comes to forecasts 5 or more days out. In any case, it’s irritating to see some people throw a virtual tantrum again this year when a run of the NAM doesn’t pan out or CB misses a precip total by a little, and then they freak out as if CB is at fault for a computer model not panning out. It’s ludicrous.
I been here since begginng and fact is WINTER WEATHER cant be predicted. so conservative is what Basiley should be instead of hyping things up. but hey there in the rating games with WLEX. this forcast wasnt nailed except for the flooding. the winter end was not hit, POWER OUTAGES etc was predicted and just plain ROAD CLOSURES which for most part never happen. so I wish we could have realistic,conservative forcast give. but its all about the RATINGS!! SEVERE WEATHER DAY ALEERRTT or SEVERE WEATHER AWARNESS the 2 maajior channels battle for ratings, so when u meention possible crippling ice/snow u get peeps attention.
Bailey best there is but he just lets the winter weather MODELS and the STATION wanting HYPE!! get in his way sumtimes. yes we should be realistic not worse case scenario all time then maybe the 98 dusting happens AGAIN!!!
Completely false statement to say that Chris is hyping everything.
C’mon man, I like and appreciate what CB does, but there is an element of hype. It’s what drives ratings and blog hits. Most people want to read and speculate about worst case winter storm scenarios, or wish casting. As good as guys like Andy Weingarten over at WAVE3, nobody wants to get bummed by reading about 1 inch snow events, even if it’s the truth. Bailey gives us what we want-colorful NAM models showing central KY getting hammered. Problem is we get snookered every time.
You are creating your own element of hype, some people who come on here don’t even like snow, they just want the information (which is normally correct). Every met at every station relayed too the public that there would be a sharp cutoff for snow, that this was mostly an ohio river event (for snow). CB only posted that model because the models were not able to grasp how fast the cold air was moving in, and now they were. Central Kentucky definitely had the possibility of picking up a couple inches of snow but the moisture ran out too fast, not one blog/met predicted that. There will be more storms, stop pouting.
First, Chris thanks for all your time and effort put into giving us the information available at the time…..Question, what time frame can we expect the “moisture” to start moving back in to the “Central KY-B’ing Green” area this evening? Thanks again for all you do!!!!
Looks like shortly around 3am for Bowling Green give or take.
Thanks!!
nice job, Chris. hang tough my man – haters gonna’ hate and you can’t change bad attitudes. some folks are just plain negative.
i keep thinking how it’s really early for this kind of weather and it seems to me we got pretty much what you forecast for the lexington area. odds and conditions will finally roll around our way and we’ll get a good “old school” snow. on to round two!
Let’s all take a deep breath and realize that maybe a weather blog isn’t the best place to vent frustration. We all want a big snow, but negativity on here isn’t the best way to express discontent. There are some wonderful counselors that will gladly want to listen to negative rants and raves.
Speaking of weather. I appreciate all of the words of warning for the flooded areas. I’ve heard friends’ stories of not placing themselves in flood danger thanks to words of advice offered on this site. Floods are serious business in our part of the state, and saving lives seem to be a bit more important than whether or not you received the NAM predicted or CB predicted snow amount.
Things happen in the atmosphere that you can’t predict. The thunderstorms we had created a dry slot that lasted for a while over Frankfort and Lexington. Big deal. It’s December. Relax.
Thanks CB and all you other folks that teach us amateurs a lot about weather. Now, on to the next event for tonight…have fun and stay safe.
If you want to know what kind of winter weather your house will get, look out your window. Other than that, it’s an educated guess. It’s as simple as that. Kentucky is not the place to be if you want yearly deep snows. You have to live farther north for that. Be as prepared as you can be in winter because you never know when that dusting will be a major event.
I get very disappointed when a long anticipated winter storm doesn’t materialize in my back yard but “blaming” CB is just stupid. He does a public service by posting the models and maps and very clearly often says they “might be overdone, underdone, etc.” Grow up people. Winter weather specifics are nearly impossible to predict outside of 12 hours!!!
I agree but that’s why they call it “forecasting”. You lose some, you win some. If it were that easy we wouldn’t need mets. But at least give a call 24 hours before an event.
Reminder: Chris Bailey does this on his OWN time. He does not get paid for the time and effort. The blog is NOT affiliated with WKYT in any manner and the only connection is that Chris WORKS there. Stop with the snark and attitudes or step up and make YOUR weather blog.
Unfortunately, when you’re in the public eye, criticism will come with the job. I think most everyone appreciates the information that CB cranks out. The issue is the hype that goes along with model interpretation. I don’t think anyone is being brutal, besides if I were CB, I’d cash my paycheck sand laugh at the haters. He’s a grown man, not an insecure teenaged kid
So true, as snow begets snow whining begets whining
CB, some people are never happy. I think you do a fantastic job with the weather! As my dad says, “we’ll take what the Good Lord gives us and like it”…I tend to agree with him. I love snow, but I’m not complaining, because I dislike ice as much as I love snow. We’ve had twice as much winter already this year as we have in past years and it’s not over yet. So thanks for all the time you take to keep us informed, you ARE appreciated!
P.S. I really wish you could get a “like” button on these comments…I would be liking Joey’s and 3789N8436W’s about now! 🙂
Being responsible for so many, checking in here regularly allows me to do what I need to do… prepare for the worst and hope for the best. The informational tools provided here, along with Chris’ expert analysis, allows me to come to my own conclusions for me and mine. That’s how it is in every aspect if life, yes? Of course, there are always the “blamers” out there. I try not to feed that as it’s a bottomless pit. Chris, don’t change a thing please. It’s up to the individual to use what they need and leave what they don’t.
some of you act like children instead of adults! If you want a guarantee instead of a of snow needs to get yourself a snow making machine and go out and play in it and be the child that you are acting like!!! Gee whiz!!!
Forecast was nailed in this neck of the woods and I appreciate all that you do, Chris!
If you want a guarantee instead of a probability then you need to get yourself a snow making machine and make your own!
actually all these models might not be accurate throughout the whole year. for example if the NAM is showing or predicting an inch of rain for your locality, and your area only receives three quarters of an inch, does anybody paid attention to the inaccurate rainfall amount. I’ve seen a lot of predicted severe weather that does not develop.
90 percent of us are snow lovers on this blog and I think that’s all we focus on when these models are predicting snow totals.
Imo the gfs has been the most accurate so far this winter season.
here in Louisville scoreboard reads rain 2 snow 0 at least team rain did not pitch a no hitter this time.
Dang, a lot of you cry way too much. I think some of you are forgetting he does this on his own time. If you detest it so much, pack up, and move on.
This comment section is getting like a youtube section full of children screaming you don’t understand music unless you grew up in so and so year.
Keep up the good work, CB! I for one appreciate this blog, and look forward to reading it.
That is perhaps respectfully a little bit naive. Probably a key reason CB has this gig (besides being a great met) is CB’s great social media skills and this very blog. The traffic is HUGE.
CB loves being a met and blogging with the community and that is reciprocated. The company CB works for probably almost certainly loves it too, but in a more marketing and monetary way.
It is a win win relationship for all 🙂
What is wrong with some give and take in the blog? Better than a sugary sickly sweet fan adulation site, Bleh.
That said, kids also read this blog, so we should all be examples for good behavior. Being disrespectful or doing drive-by insults is lame. I would like to see anybody else do a better job than people like CB. A lot already think the models are bad in the winter, so think of having to rely on them for your job! Yikes. CB can take it, since is like Rocky and made of iron 🙂
Chris,
Please disregard all of the negative people. I’ve come to realize that some people you can’t please regardless of the outcome. Especially WAFFLES post. He sounds like a bitter meteorologist that’s just jealous of your popularity. I live in Charleston, WV. and when I need a forecast I look at your blog only. I wish you a Merry Christmas. Good work as always. God Bless.
Have any of you noticed some of the posts are sort of backhanded compliments? At least that’s what I’m getting from a few of them.
I couldnt agree with chris more about some of you
. It cracks me up when you guys hype a winter storm up in your own minds and go into fits when it doesn’t happen. Keep up the great work chris.
I, for one, love good give and take. Debating is great. Accusatory, inflammatory remarks have no place in that scenario… especially in the direct attempt to injure with blame where there’s none due to one’s own lack of self-guidance, or even plain meanness. There’s a big difference, I think. I wouldn’t think anyone I’ve seen here doesn’t respect a good, even argumentative, back and forth. It should always remain constructive with exclusion of the destructive.
Thanks Chris, for doing this blog site. I do enjoy it no matter the outcome of some of these systems. Haven said that, you win some you loose some. Those of us who are snow lovers get discouraged and vent…..it’s human nature. I never “expect” snow this early in the year but when when when these systems come soooooo close and always seem to fizz out right before it reaches our city, it’s especially discouraging….
BTW, Waffles, I’m sure anyone here would like to see YOU step into Chris’ shoes and watch you try to predict Kentucky weather (the most unpredictable on planet Earth)…..I’m sure we would then see who really sucks….maybe then you might be allowed to join the Accuweather team of bumbling idiot no nothing hacks.
WARM AIR WINS OUT 2ND wavew, MOND/Tueday ouer besy chance at SNOW. tonite RAIN for Richmond sout.
on side note BAILEY I wish u been with BARB BAILEY at WALMART yesterday working the SALVATION ARMY can in awful weather. got to get a picc, talk to me and mt girl for 30 minutes such a wonderful woman.
look at ACCUWEATHER MONDAY/SUNDAY STORM they nailed last 2 RAIN from Richmond south and east. mix from LEX noryh and west and east, SNOW not even near KY.
Hey guys. Thomas from Murray, KY here. Been reading the venting last two days. While I do live in west KY every time our area of the state gets thumped we always fall outside that sharp cut off line. We got maybe two tenths of an inch of ice, if that, which is good news and no snow whatsoever. I am used to constant disappointment though when it comes to winter and the only time we got hit hard other than 2009 ice storm was a four hour fluke dusting that dropped a foot of snow. That snow was predicted to be a dusting the morning it started and within an hour had three inches of snow and a blizzard warning issued. By noon we had a foot. I, too, am tired of missed predictions and am moving. My move, though, is to avoid winter weather and enjoy the ocean and year round warm temperatures. Happy holidays to all.
Longest comments ever
Thanks to CB for all his help predicting the latest round of storms. I live in Cynthiana and have a 25 mile commute all on back roads, so CB provides what I really need to know, and that’s the timing. I closed our office at 4:30 yesterday and started driving home at 40 mph, and by the time I crossed 460, road conditions had deteriorated badly. As I crossed Hwy 62, the roads were ice covered, slick and dangerous. I drove 20 mph the rest of the way home, dodging deer, dogs and other idiot drivers going too fast for conditions. I grew up driving Great Lakes winters and can handle snow, and the big thing is to SLOW DOWN. Getting unstuck from a fence or tree takes much longer than slowing down, especially with so little safety room on the side of the roads.
CB’s early predictions also let me know to go ahead and put rain sheets on the horses BEFORE the storm started, as when I took them off last night, the blankets had frozen into walking carports and the horses were miserable. Had they not worn rain sheets in 65 degree weather though, they would have been much worse off. The blankets are still frozen hanging in the barn to dry today, and I knew from the forecast which set to put on for today. Keep up the good work and a huge thanks from those of us who really need to know the forecast to be out in it and not just as an event to watch from the house. Thanks!
Congrats to Chris for nailing for forecast even though it was all rain. However I do not recall any winter events across the entire state let alone major events across the entire state.
Chris nailed the forecast for Franfort area, 1.5 inches of snow and about .20 Ice, keep it coming Chris, hopefully a lot more folks get in on some snow in the next few days, Hopefully it will brighten some moods 😉