Good afternoon, gang. Old man winter continues to throw punches our way and the next one arrives overnight into early Tuesday. This will have the greatest impact on areas that mostly missed out on the recent snow and ice. Here’s the first call for snowfall…
Several of the models are forecasting much more snow in the east than what the first call map shows. Regardless, the timing on this will have a big impact on the Tuesday morning commute and should result in widespread snow days.
I want to see what the short range models say later today before getting too carried away with that. I also have a sneaking suspicion we may see those lines edged farther north and west on a last call map.
Arctic air pours in later Wednesday into Thursday then we turn our attention toward the weekend. We are now seeing the models swinging toward the idea I’ve had of a bigger eastern storm system. The GFS is showing this…
The new Canadian Model doesn’t bring it all out in one big system, but in multiple systems with a greater snow and ice threat.
This is NOT the pattern to be forecasting two things: warm and dry. Old man winter isn’t playing around this year and we have a lot of winter between now and Christmas.
Take care.
Rain and Flurries
CKY continues to get the squeeze play: first system snow to the North and West, this system, to the South and East. Not the place to be a snow lover…
Agree, Lots of complaining from folks in the southeast, but I was in the London/Corbin area during thanksgiving week and seen 2 inches of snow on the ground in spots, that’s more than Most of Central KY has seen at anyone time this year! DOME is tough between Frankfort and Lexington so far this year!
2 inches is probably more than most of what Corbin/London area has seen. Also London/Corbin do not represent the entire SE only a very small part
Are you saying your backyard represents a large part 😉
nope although its a larger part than what most people have ;). I was all over corbin and seen no more than a half inch also have friends and family in London as well and nobody had that amount.
I was there on Wed and didn’t see anywhere near that … but I did forget my ruler at home and couldn’t really measure exact .. 🙂
Yep, we are fence central and I have been crying about that for the past ten years. The southern fed systems since 98 always (yes, always) miss us with snow, but get us with ice.
The only significant snows we have gotten since 98 are from northern clippers and even those have been no shows the past few years.
Some call it a dome, but it is more geographically a fence. A real Big one.
Fence, Dome, whatever you call it, it seems its here to stay! There has been but 1 event in the Lex area (or my part of Jessamine Co.) since the “Great Dusting of ’98” that has officially exceeded 5″ in the snow department, and that was in early ’01 if memory serves, and was at precisely 6″. So its now 13 years since we’ve had a 6″ snowfall, and 16 years since anything has exceeded that. I would be content if we could get 6″+ on the ground out of multiple events, but we can’t even manage that, since it melts off between storms! A truly sad state of affairs for snow lovers here!
Jim Caldwell tweeted a nam map last night showing Madison getting close to 3 Inches,pretty much the sweet spot on that map. Today calling for a dusting to 1 inch. Just saying.
its because he forgot to do the fence algebra on that estimate…….. 3 inches times the fence equals NOTHING! and that is about what the river area will get.
well Bailey I see a swath of HEAVY/WHITE OUT snow for a short period, but if this baby coulsd slow down a tad the 1-2 could be 3-6 so on. still my first call is 2-4 in ur 1-2 and 3-6 in other area
Nope Nada Zilch. Ground is warm, will take longer than normal for snowfall to accumulate, you can thank the recent heavy rains for that. Axis of heaviest snowfall in VA towards DC. Our area will push 1-2″ and that’s it. 3-6″ is wishful thinking
So from Nope Nada Zilch to 1-2 inches your change your mind quicker than Rolo. 😉
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) formerly known as the HPC paints a 30-40% chance for Pikeville and Prestonsburg to exceed 2″.
Sounds like 1-2″ likely for many from London to Charleston WV and a few 3″ amounts in between.
Ok…So the rest of Fall will be like Winter….that will give us our typical month of cold going back to before Thanksgiving. Does that mean our winter will be warm. Blowtorch January.
Like the chances for wintery precip over the next week or so. Let’s get central ky in the Mix. No pun intended. LOL
Ugh, weekend system needs to go more south or KY will see mainly rain. But CB is right…LOTS of action and possibilities!
Two possibilities yes no snow or rain
NWS Jackson KY now has a Winter Weather Advisory up for its coverage area.
Well I was quite surprised at the amount of snow we had in Louisville friday. Maybe we’ll get another this weekend.
For us snow starved folks in SE/KY, I will be greatful for 1-2”…another snow day sounds good to me!!! 😀
By CB’s maps, the next system appears to be more of the same: rain followed by a few flurries and dry cold. If this is what we can expect, then count me out! Bring on the blowtorch!
Oh, the blowtorch is coming. We will probably see an extended run of 60 degree weather by mid January with some of the pear trees trying to break bud. The blowtorch is upon us
Bryant, just curious what info you are reading to suggest this? The NWS 30 day outlooks say equal chance of warm/cold for the next couple months. A Jan. thaw is pretty common. However, you have stated elsewhere the snow is over by Holidays? Hmmm… I don’t agree.
I don’t like to mention other blogs or message boards, but there is a website out there with pro mets and amateur weather geeks that are pretty darn good. Consensus is a MAJOR PATTERN FLIP in next several weeks. CB, in his Winter forecast, even agrees that January will be quiet. Active Dec usually boring January. Climate and other variables usually work against big ticket items in February. Battle of the seasons in march can usually lead to heavy snows in the east, but seems to be a thing of the past. I stick to my guns, blowtorch in January, seasonal February and March. If we go old school it better happen in next 1-2 weeks as Winter looks to end EARLY
not true he said February would be quiet!!!
more flooding this weekend for central/SE KY
Hydro concerns once again, ground is saturated and any rain that falls will cause small stream flooding. Too early to say if this storm will cause problems on a bigger scale( generalized river basin flooding. Most gauges around local rivers are showing well above average CFS
With artic air coming in Wed/Thursday you would think the freezing line would be more south for the Sat system. Could be another icing event.
If fed from the south, bank on it.
So charleston NWS puts an advisory out for all counties besides greenup…wow
Nah, skipped us in Carter County too Corey.
I’m not sure if the 98 storm is considered a southern fed storm…..The Low was off the coast of the Atlantic and threw moisture back to the west…So may be even longer than ’98 since a southern storm brought us snow. Probably 96, so nearing 20 years. And the 98 storm was a FREAK storm, which is probably what’s going to give us our big snows in the future…..Freak storms.
98 storm was Atlantic fed that was SLOW to progress. 1996 storm was old school phased storm that pleased the entire crowd. 93 mega storm was once in lifetime storm that phased and brought everything together textbook style, enough cold air to blanket the southern states with heavy snow, parts of east KY buried under 1-2′ of snow. Need an old fashioned inland apps runner to crush the central and east. Nearly everything out of the gulf tracks in a way that the nose of WARMTH ruins the show. Also issues with cold air placement, most outbreaks we have are in and out in 1-3 days. Climo changes??
Small ankle biter tonight. Good snow maker for central Indiana this weekend, as WARMTH is king this weekend. Couple more weeks to get something good in here, as January is blowtorch month and February snows are usually melted off quick by higher sun angles and longer daylight hours. In short, folks, winter will be, for the most part over with by the holiday season.
I hope you are right …. I love spring time !!!
I would be good with that!
Cold rain tonight, cold rain this weekend.
Nah, everyone gets the snow tonight, albeit, an old fashioned ankle biter. System does NOT look to be an overachiever by any means, so don’t expect >3″ amounts anywhere. But, yep, cold rain by weekend, snow/ice well to the north
by the way the EURO model disagrees with you by a lot……still show lows in the teens and highs in the 20’s and 30’s in January
CFS doesn’t agree with you either!
Glad to see a few of you buying into my idea that January will feature unprecedented warmth ( the blowtorch). I think we all know what’s coming. Oh well, always severe weather season in the spring
Guess what the GFS shows Christmas eve into Christmas day? Highs in the negatives, lows near 20 below, and a foot of snow a day before. But you can only dream…
Well, the GFS and a few dollars and you can have a cup of coffee. That’s the only useful thing that long range winter modeling provides
Yet you are so certain of the January blowtorch based on said long range winter modeling. Hmm.
Don’t need modeling to forecast long range. Can get plenty out of looking at the NAO, AO and others
how do you suppose those are forecast??? MODELS
Yeah, the NAO and AO forecasted November and December to be mild as well. How did that turn out? A lot more things to watch other than just the NAO and AO.
Fine, get your hopes up. When temps average well above with below precipitation, don’t bellyache.
Don’t feed the troll.
Well highs in the negatives have happened a few times in Lexington. I think -3 for a high is the record, and that happened a few times I believe…….YUK!
Well GFS shows a high of -7! That run is a bit crazy.
January, 1994 had a day with the balmy high of -4.
folks 98 dusting on my radar, these 2 disturbances looking like they are indeed wanting to dance together… its very interesting to say least watching latest radar loop
look like there going come together right over KY!!
I agree Rolo interesting looking radar returns. From what I gather especially what the NAM has been preaching is the moisture should split with a band of snow over southern Indiana and northern KY and then over southern and south central ky. It suppose to leave north central ky alone maybe a light dusting at best for them. Rather that happens or not as of now Im not convinced judging by the radar, and to be honest not quite sure how much is falling as virga either. Looks interesting as of now maybe a overachiever.
CB’s map looks good to me
That 4″ could happen in higher elevations of far east KY, otherwise, 1-3″ for SE Kentucky, mostly 1-2″ amounts though from London to Charleston WV will be common
I think this will overachieve for Richmond and we will get 0.5″ instead of a coating 🙂 😉 Unless that IS a coating….. Doh!
Thank you for all the updates and the extra work you do for the blog!
Blowtorch says: Are YOU talking to ME?? In what way do you think I’m funny? I fight the men and love the women. I’ll take two chickens and a Coke. It’s the other other white meat. Get IN my Belly!
Indeed. The Blowtorch: Embrace it, Love it, Be one with the Torch. It is our winter.
Well at least Bubba tries to lighten the mood a bit. Others just continue to aimlessly bloviate whilst thinking that they know more than Chris.
Are you suggesting that I’m a nabbering nabob of negativity? You have an awesome vocabulary, Jeff. Nobody cares
You do not impress me.