Good Tuesday everyone. Our weather pattern has finally cranked up and that spells troubles for holiday travelers around here and across much of the country. This is a VERY energetic pattern across the country and one that is likely to continue into much of December.

In the short term… a quick moving line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms is racing across the state and will be out of the region by early to mid afternoon. Heavy rains and gusty winds will be likely as the rains roll eastward and you can track them here…



Skies will clear out some from west to east this afternoon into the evening as much colder air works in. Highs for the day will come early this morning and fall from there with most areas winding up in the low and mid 40s by early evening. Cold temps are likely tonight with mid and upper 20s north and low 30s across the south.

This will set the stage for a wild range in temps from Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day. Wednesday temps will be on the chilly side with low and mid 40s for highs across much of the region. Warm air will be surging northward by Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving Day ahead of a strong cold front. Temps will soar into the 60s for many folks early Thanksgiving day.This front will swing through here later Thursday into Thursday night and bring a MAJOR drop in temps. We will see one heck of a temp gradient setting up from west to east on either side of this boundary. As the front pushes through… temps can drop 20-30 degrees in just a few hours.

Here is how the GFS sees the temps…



Wow! How is that for a bit temp swing? VERY gusty winds will be accompanying the frontal passage.

What about precipitation?

We know about today’s showers and storms that are pushing through. We will likely get in on a batch of overrunning showers later Wednesday… especially west and north. As the front moves in on Thanksgiving… showers and thunderstorms will become widespread and will bring more heavy rains into the region. Add it all up and the rain totals from today through Thanksgiving will average 1″-3″ . Here is the GFS rain forecast…



That brings us to the wintry part of this storm. You saw the rapid drop in temps moving in later Thursday into early Friday and that will have a big impact on the precipitation. It continues to look like the cold air will catch the back edge of the rain shield and switch it over to a period of snow. I can see a little sleet mixing in with this as well. The timing of the change from rain to snow is still in question as the EXACT timing of the front is yet to be determined. That said… the GFS tries to time it all out for you…



The above maps show the period from Thanksgiving evening into Friday morning. On the right… you see how the GFS wants to drop a little snowfall. Let’s be honest… it is going to be very tough to put anything on a ground as warm and wet as we will see around here come Friday morning. Can it snow hard enough for something to show up on a rooftop somewhere? Sure… but I wouldn’t be expecting to wake up to snow on the ground come Friday morning. It is November so we can’t really ask for too much. This will make for some festive shopping for Black Friday which will feature those early day flakes and then highs only in the 30s to go along with blustery conditions.

Looking down the road… the pattern has a lot of potential for the first few weeks of December.

I will have updates as needed today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.