Good Monday everyone and welcome to a weather week that promises a lot of action. Of course, this is no ordinary week as our long Thanksgiving holiday weekend is just about here. The weather for the next several days looks to be pretty darn wild for the entire country and the wild will eventually include your back yard.

Before we dive into it all… how about that weekend? Wow!! That was some of the best weather we have had in a long time and it looks as if we get one more day before things begin to change. Highs today will be back into the upper 60s to around 70 for many areas as clouds increase by later in the day. Winds will be very gusty as well.

A cold front moves our way later tonight into Tuesday and will bring a band of showers and thundershower with it. This action will be moving west to east and may be out of the region pretty early Tuesday evening. Winds will again be gusty as temps come down into the 50s for highs.  Much colder air quickly works in behind this front Tuesday night as lows dip into the upper 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday looks chilly as many areas see temps staying in the 40s as you can see here on the GFS…



As warmer air surges back to the north later in the day… rains will develop along and north of this warm front. That doesn’t bode too well for holiday travelers.

This warm surge is ahead of low pressure heading into the western Great Lakes. This low is dragging a cold front toward us by Thanksgiving Day and rains will increase once again. Some turkey day thunderstorms will even be possible to go along with VERY gusty winds.

Heavy rains will be a given and the models continue to spit out some impressive totals from Tuesday through Thursday night…



A general 1″-3″ of rain is likely to fall across our region during this time.

I talked about the Thanksgiving setup  with our front surging in from the west during the day into Thanksgiving night. This front has a lot of cold air to work with and we will see an amazing looking temperature map by Thursday afternoon as western Kentucky will be in the low and mid 30s with the east near 60. The cold air will win the battle and surge eastward into Thursday night. It is looking more and more likely the cold air will catch the back edge of the rain shield and turn it over to a period of snow before it ends Friday morning.

The GFS…



Here is what that same model shows in terms of the west to east change to snow from Thursday evening to Friday morning and the amount of snow the model thinks will fall…



That is pretty impressive… but PLEASE take it with a grain of salt!! That is one run of one model… but the odds of, at least, seeing a period of snow are increasing. It is way to early to tell if we can get anything to stick and that is something we will tackle in the coming days. A quick scan of the Canadian and European models find them showing something similar with the change… the only difference might be the timing.

One thing is for sure… your Black Friday looks cold and maybe white. Highs Friday will likely be in the low 30s for many.

I will have another update later today so check back in. Have a great Monday and take care.