Good Friday, everyone. Another wintry system is rolling into the bluegrass state today and this will bring a bit of a mess over the next few days. This isn’t going to be a big system, but will make for a rather ugly weekend across the entire state.
Clouds will increase today and light rain and a mix will break out in the west and work eastward later today into the evening. That will increase overnight and some areas will likely get in on a period of wet snow. This can lay down some slushy accumulations into Saturday morning with the best chance being across the north. Covington has been ground zero for snow this month. Check out this snow stat for the first 10 days of the month…
That’s impressive. The funny thing is 1917 did show up on my analog list, but I dismissed it because it was such an extreme winter. Hmmm
Anyway… 1″-3″ of slush may fall into early Saturday for areas closest to the Ohio River. Some light slush will be possible as far south as Interstate 64.
Most areas go over to a cold rain for Saturday as temps head into the middle 30s. Colder air sweeps back in Saturday evening and the rain changes back to light snow. Snow showers will then continue into Sunday and a light accumulation is possible with temps in the 20s.
The northwesterly flow aloft will bring a couple of systems into the region and may produce a few bands of light snow and flurries. The Canadian continues to hone in on Tuesday for the highest chance…
That shot of cold coming in behind that will be in and out in a couple of days. There’s a good chance we coming out of the cold funk for a few days. Why? Because it will be ahead of another MAJOR arctic plunge working in here next weekend. That will likely feature wind and rain in front of a 50 degree temperature drop. Once the temp drops… the snow threat increases and we may go into a prolonged period of winter weather.
The air coming in behind that surge has the chance to become memorable. Look at the GFS Ensembles 5 day average temperature anomaly from December 22-27…
Btw… the numbers above are in Celsius and not Fahrenheit !!
The controlled run of the European Ensembles 850mb temp anomalies centered on Christmas Eve are crazy…
Think that pattern is going away anytime soon? The European Model runs a version that forecasts up to a month away. Here’s what is has for the first week of January…
The block you see across Alaska is just ridiculous on that run. This is the setup that has dominated the pattern since late October and shows no signs in letting up. It was the main thing I keyed on in my winter forecast and it appears I didn’t give it enough respect.
I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Chris I love ya but this cold is nothing without some snow and believe me we have not had none of that where I live so if its going to stay cold without snow I just wish it would stay dry don’t like cold without Snow…..
Sad thing is that with all the cold and snow in December all that I have gotten ate my place in Knox Co. is a dusting of snow and a couple of flooding rains. Lol
Yep, what a lot of us Kentucky folks have (especially the center) now and will probably have this winter (since fits the long long trend) is a chronic case of OPS (Other People’s Snow). We will watch most of the stuff to our north ( and north east or west) and see links and tweets too, but it will be OPS.
The only thing that can cure it is a vaccination of BTB (Big Trend Buster).
hey gang! i live in denver, co so far i have 12.6” of snow on the season! was -18 here back a few mornings ago!
Hopefully we can get a few systems to roll through here end of next week over the New Year. Would love to see a white Xmas and beyond. Those temps look brutal. We need some really cold air and a frozen ground.
When was the last time we had a major cold outbreak in KY?
By some measures, the last “real” cold wave for our area may have been way back in 1994. NWS Jackson KY has a page about our artic cold wave drought (click link here).
Grrrr, Arctic. Typing too fast, and overlooked spellcheck.
Last time Lexington hit -10 or lower was February of 1996. -20 happened in January of 1994. We had frequent arctic outbreaks from the late 70’s through the mid 90s. From say 1964-1975 not so much. Weather tends to run in cycles. I think our cycle of warmer winters is about to end.
Comical that the long range shows freezing temps except when it rains. Then its in the 40’s or 50’s..With a +AO,+Nao and a -Pna if the pacific turns against us were in big trouble…”Blowtorch” dude will have a field day..
looks like another rainy weekend for 90ercent of Kentucky followed by. another rainy weekend.
after this event this weekend the scoreboard will read rain 3 snow 1 here in Louisville.
Since I have absolutely no faith in any snowfalls larger than 1-2″ for the entire winter in my area, I truly hope the temperatures on those maps do not play out. I would just like to to see temps go back into the 50’s-60’s. As much as I would love to see a big snow, I think the last thing we want is a replay of the winters of 76-77.
You want temps in the 60’s, it won’t be long, warm January set to hit.
January 1977 has a storm inwhich it even snowed in Miami. Yes, Miami FL. In fact, snow fell at least as far south as Homestead, with unofficial reports of a few flakes in the upper Keys. This remains the southernmost Florida snow, exceeding the Blizzard of Feb 1899 (with had snow in Ft Myers).
An old 1977 Weatherwise magazine article reported that a judge in Ft Lauderdale put his court on a brief recess so everyone could go out and experience the snow! Even Johnny Carson couldn’t resist including the rare event in his monologue that evening 😉 .
So what do the stats show for 1917 winter? Anything you have you could show? I looked some stuff up but so far I have only found some stories about it so far. One story said that recurring blizzards and low temperatures forced people to share homes to conserve coal. Reading it sounded pretty bad.
Keep up the good work. Stuff looks like it could get interesting.
1917-1918 was the snowiest winter on record in Lexington (41.2 inches), Louisville (49.2 inches), and #3 in Bowling Green (33.0 inches). There were 12 mornings where the low went below zero, also a record.
For a comparison sake, you have to go all the way back to 1993-1994 to find 12 mornings combined that have gone below zero.
Ok, do not want none of that for sure. The snow maybe but not those temperatures. Thank you for the numbers.
A 100 year storm. That would be nice. We are very overdue for a winter like the 77-78
NO way! I do want the snow but definitely not the temps. I was 4 years old in those winters living in TN, but they were brutal and I remember them well. It was miserable to even go outside. Believe me….when a 4yo dont want to go outside…. it’s brutal.
Blowtorch weather only 2 weeks away, folks.
It’s called the January thaw pretty common around these parts.
Trolltorch weather?
LOL P) . Good one!
I can’t help to notice the disparity. CB’s headlines and twitter feed is non stop winter weather on the way with arctic intrusions and awesome snowfall potential. Scroll down to the comments, and nearly everyone is complaining about the cold KY rains followed by a day or two cold weather. CB, you know your stuff when it comes to severe weather, but you may as well go conservative on the winter stuff, it’s honestly a joke here in Kentucky.
I guess if we go warm instead of cold rain we can call it “Torching Rain’..
I know the snow has not been what some wanted but it is only December. And it has been fairly cold for this time of year already. Been below average quite a bit. I think CB said something about the November temperatures and December so far has been cold it seems.
I will say that the ground is already cold enough that some of the few inches of snow we had here from the last storm is holding on. Patchy but I can look out my window and see it. Of course it is not everywhere now but it does say something for the temperature here in my area.
Still have plenty of snow on the ground in the northern shady areas in Frankfort, this has been a amazing winter stretch in my book, if the folks down state had some snow on the ground they would say the same, some areas of extreme northern KY will approach 15 inches of snow for December after this weekend!
Lol…..what defines “complaining”? I stated the very thing that is being posted by several here and was raked over the coals for doing so. Again I repeat brutal cold without snow is useless. I’m done with this garbage. Bring on spring!
I agree! I hate a 20 degree high with sunny conditions. We have ALL of winter left and I alredy have had more snow this FALL than I did either of the past two winters.
Now if it is like this Mid to late January that will be a different story.
December 2000 was the coldest on record for Louisville and I believe the 2nd coldest for Lexington as far as average temperatures were concerned.
Louisville has already recorded 4 days with high temperatures <=32 degrees this winter. Last winter, only 6 days for the entire winter.
Meanwhile, Jerusalem is hit by the biggest December snowstorm in 50 years (up to 15″)…
I saw that report. Perhaps more impressive–Cairo, Egypt–where the average low is 60 this time of year received its third snowfall since the 1600’s. That sounds about like the equivalent of say–Miami or Los Angeles receiving snow.
Blowtorch my @$#! 😉
I said the blowtorch would be in full effect by January. You’ll see soon enough.
blowtorch – snowtorch….good grief.
like the 1917 discussion you all.
thanks to Chris Mercer for all the good stats!
What a bunch of babies on this site. It’s not even Jan. yet and people are saying bring on spring. What’s the point of even checking the blog if you are already 100% convinced it will be warm in Jan. or a cold rain when the next one hits.
Torches, domes, cold rains….we get it. Move on.
Because severe weather is much more interesting to me than 13 degrees
Well said Davey!
Because they get all of their amusement trolling the internet 24/7 trying to find people to argue with them.
GFS 172 hr has much of Ky with 0-16 degrees above normal next Friday. At the same time St Louis west has temps 0-16 below normal. Big warm up for a couple days. Thunderstorms to snow???
Also showing At hour 204 Hopefully a ton of ice for Eastern Ky followed by snow…Woo Hoo lock it in,only 204 hrs to go…Love a good ice/snow storm..
Yep, gonna “warm up” next week, then come crashing down again the weekend before Christmas.
These “warm ups” right before cold seem to be a sign of a big storm. At least from what I have seen. I remember many long years back going to bed thinking about the warm weather of the last few day (before big internet) and woke up to ice and big snow. Odd how that works around here. Where I grew up (most of my youth anyway) in northeast Ohio it snowed plenty. We would get snow, then lake effect snow, then more snow before that melted. Giant snow forts in the parking lots of the church down the road. A relative of mine who lives there is always asking me to take some of the snow as they seem to get it every year. As a youngster it was pretty awesome. Wish my kids could experience that once here.
I grew up in the 70s and lived through every moment of those late 70s notorious winters, in frankfort no major snows fell in those big time winters until after Christmas, being a student at Franklin co. I remember going to school one day after Christmas break and then the winter storms started hitting and we missed 6 straight weeks of school through mid to late February!
Chill folks because you will this winter 🙂
I was nine 77/78 – 78/79 winters where brutal. 15 inches dumped on with ice after. Louisville schools out for over four weeks after returning for one. Walked on frozen ohio river that year. Would love to see that again!
Those where unlike any since because of the consistent duration of cold and snow on the ground!
Not saying this winter will rival those, but it has a lot of similarities so far, people thinking that January is going to be very warm or mild might just want to wait see first and then they can say I told you so, weather is fickle but I do know the northern half of the country’s snow pack is increasing every week!
I remember that. My dad shoveled the drive and I made a snow fort of epic proportions, for a 10 year old. We played on that thing for days. I watched people walk on the Ohio.
I was born in ’78 so can’t recall those winters. I do recall President Reagan’s inauguration being moved inside due to some major cold in January of 1985. The two longest periods of extreme cold I remember have to be December of 1989 and January of 1994. That storm that hit on MLK Day weekend in January of 1994 remains the worst winter storm I’ve ever seen in Kentucky.
I wasn’t born until ’84. So I don’t recall the snow and cold of Jan 1985, but have vague memories of frigid Dec/Christmas 1989. While I remember the cold of 1994, Tennessee seemingly was not nearly as frigid and snowy as Kentucky was (unlike Jan 1985 when Nashville dropped to minus 17 which is all time record low). But I sure do remember the blizzard that struck in March 1993.
I remember the Winters of the early and mid 90’s all too well. Was driving a US Mail truck back and forth between Somerset and London three times per day. Temps got down to -16 one night and my diesel fuel froze. Another time all highways and interstates were closed except for mail trucks. I was all alone out there. A very lonely feeling.
Another night I was told to stay home by the Somerset Postmaster because of the ice storm that hit KY.
Those winters were brutal and I have no desire to see them repeated.
I don’t understand all your all’s fascination with snow and ice. Why would you want bad weather. Do you not have jobs where you have to drive in it or maybe your kids? It can be dangerous! Just saying. I also like having my electric on. It’s pretty cool.
My deck and the shady spots around the house still have snow/ice on them and have since last Friday. I’d say that is pretty impressive for Early to Mid December. I’m actually hoping for some rain right now–to wash all the salt away!
Agree the snow in the shady is mostly ice now, It usually takes a warm up in KY to breed a good winter storm statewide anyway!
Mother Nature might need to reboot the system this week, then bring on the snow for Christmas 🙂
45 in Frankfort feels balmy outside!
Chris Mercer……..
That’s an incorrect stat. I think the record seasonal snowfall for Lexington is 53 inches..
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=lexsnowextremes
Incidentally – something strange I find on those stats that I link is the “most snowfall in a calendar month”, why is FEB 98 not on there? I mean, that was a good 20 inch snow in Lexington. I was in western NC for the march 93 superstorm and to me that feb 98 storm was equal to that.
I think that is in the time frame when there was no official snowfall measurements actually happening in Lexington. Chris Bailey can probably clarify but I’ve seen him mention before there were a number of years the snowfall record is suspect due to some measurement issues. Not sure which years those were…
True–that is the seasonal record–I was just looking at December-January period.
Oh , sorry Chris
No problem. Isn’t it interesting though that 1916-1917 and 1917-1918 had back to back years of incredible snow.
I’m thrilled that the north and new england is hogging all of the snow. Keep it out of kentucky, keep it across the ohio river.
And when summer gets here you can keep all the bugs in your yard 😉
It’s already been 10 degrees in my backyard, and that’s colder than anytime the last two winters, bugs days are numbered!
We need it to stay that cold for a few days and its not been that cold everywhere.
I’m thrilled that you do not control the weather.
Thanks, Chris. Just now getting a chance to read the blog for today. Been a killer day at work! Don’t think we have much to worry about over the weekend as far as precip goes, At least the kind that makes roads white, in our part of the state. And as usual, a cold rain will fall on most of Kentucky. Oh well. Guess if you are not finished Christmas chopping, that is a good thing…(and I am NOT finished. Close, but not done.) 😉 The cold temps will at least make it feel more Christmasy, at least to me. Have a great rest of your Friday, everyone. Thanks again Chris, for all you do.
Christmas chopping? Special firewood?
Most areas, say, south of Scott County, will likely stay as all rain. Some counties in the far west will see some mix or snow. The rest of the state (about 80%) will remain as rain for this system.
I will say that central KY (lexington, richmond, danville, lancaster, somerset, irvine, harrodsburg, berea, etc) WILL see at least one snowfall of 4″+ before this winter is over.
I’m dying in this blowtorch of 40F.
So it’s 37 in my part of Hardin county with a rain, sleet and snow mix falling. Driving north toward Louisville on 31W and it’s still falling. Roads are wet, and it’s coming down pretty hard. Interesting discussion by NWS posted around 6 pm about a precip field preceding the original forecast precipitation.
Not buying into any forecasts other than rain here. There’s just no reason for it do to anything but rain here with the temp the way it is. Precip mixed bag may be a tad further south but it still will not amount to anything.