Happy Tuesday, friends and neighbors. There is just something about our weekends that mother nature hates. It seems as if every weekend for the past few months, we have been tracking a lot of ugly weather across our region. This weekend looks no different as a wild setup gets ready to ugly it up once again.
Before we get to all that, we have a fast moving system rolling across the state today. This will bring the potential for a couple band of light snow and light rain to the area. Can someone squeeze out some slushy accumulation? Maybe.
Winds will be very gusty today and we will have quite the temperature swing from north to south. The cold air coming in behind this system means our temps will crash later in the day into the evening.
A few tracking tools…
Current temperatures
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
Wednesday will be a windy and cold day as we start in the 20s and end in the 30s for many. Those cold winds will become much milder by Thursday as temps soar toward 50. We could see a late day shower as moisture shoots in from the southwest.
That moisture increase on Friday as rain becomes likely. A cold front settles into the region and slams the brakes on, allowing for a few waves of low pressure to develop along it. This could set the stage for heavy rain and some thunder into Saturday. Temps should hit 60 for many during this time. Winds are going to scream during the entire time.
Much colder air is showing up quicker on the models for Sunday. Check out how quickly this moves in over the weekend…
Heavy rain, thunder and mild air will give way to cold and likely SOME snow. How much we get of each and how it all plays out is up in the air… literally. 🙂
I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.
00z GFS shows literally nothing interesting at all for really any part of KY up to 180 hours out…
Brian Goode at WAVE pretty much said the same thing. He said after this weekend storm might be around New Years Day for anything interesting. Of course that can always change.
The UREO is showing most of Kentucky and West Virginia getting over a foot of snow starting Sunday into Monday. It is calling for a major storm moving directly over Ky and WV.
I meant to say EURO, sorry.
So I have DirecTV…..And I’m going through my favorite channels making sure there’s nothing new to add, and I see this channel called Weather Nation HD……I’ve never heard of it, so I added it to my favorites………OMG does it look GREAT. I love the maps and graphics…..But, what was most shocking to me, is the lack of commercials.
They even showed a Lexington traffic cam when they were giving a regional forecast for this area……It kind of reminds me the way the weather channel used to be….(KIND OF)
What channel?
If it does not call for snow what good is it. LOL….Just joking.
Yes, that channel is owed by Paul Douglas from Minneapolis, Minnesota. I used to live there and followed his blog and he’d mention the TV channel he owns and how TWC has gotten out of hand and does not describe the specifics of weather and he wants to change that all around. Here’s a link to his blog I’ve been following for years when I used to live in MN a few years ago too. I don’t live there anymore but still follow him sort of like some of you non-KY residents. http://www.startribune.com/weather/blogs/Paul_Douglas_on_Weather.html
He explains weather patterns and talks about meteorology like every met should. I will say rhat he is a die-hard believer of global warming, people get so mad at him but ive been following his for years and I’ve seen WAY too much evidence to NOT believe it. I used to be stubborn and not want to believe it but this man turned my opinions upside down and I was stuck to counter back.
There was a fascinating NOVA on PBS awhile back that chronicled the rapid loss of glacier ice in the arctic. After viewing that program and noting our recent winters, I’ve become convinced of climate change. I will state,however, that it’s very probably that this a NATURAL occurrence, as opposed to man made.
blowtorch 365 days a year.
NASA is very concerned about the ice melting. the water in the Arctic is shadow. if that water has a lot of carbon in it. the planet’s atmosphere will be a blowtorch on steroids.
I hope NASA testing finds that the water carbon content is normal.
Thanks for the link. Looks like a good site BUT he seems to be a warm weather “fan” as opposed to someone “rooting” for snow. No thanks.
I respect your opinion, but I personally dont look towards cold and snowy, or warm wx fans and whatnot. I look for the quality of the blog, one that I think will help me better understand how wx works in general. Out of 6 different blogs I follow, this one (CB’S) is my entertaining one, to be honest, I dont put much trust into CB’s forecast as much as others. (no offence CB) And besides, Paul Douglas does live in Minnesota, when I was there almost everyone about 80% of people were warm wx fans. I myself, am a bitterly cold and snowy one.
Mark what channel is that on?????
I found it 361 Marsha
All hail the magic Fence!
Meh!!!
never was a chance for snow …. accuweather nailed this one 2 weeks ago their 15 day showed temps in 50s and 60s and it looks like it will come true ….. never once did it say anything about any snow, squalls, blizzard, zero wind chill ….. etc etc etc
The outlook opportunity reminds me of holographic meatloaf: It looks good, but never really satisfies. Another tribute to the wise and insightful Spongebob. Do you fell like a Plankton too?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJPMPXO4XFo
Fell, feel – kind of the same thing, really.
Cypher with the steak ould be a better reference imo
Well, to be fair we have already had colder temperatures then they predicted this fall. Not to mention there where plenty of forecasts that did not show the snow that ended up hitting until the day of as they lowered the expected temperatures daily. Couple times they even had the high for the day predicted to be 4-5 degrees higher than it actually got to. They did miss a lot to be honest. Same with the weather.com site as they would be saying 40-45 and we would hit 36. And they had 39 and it was 35. They did not even show snow as well until the day of. So they did not hit to well either. Understandable as they are using the recent years trends and holding back on any colder than normal forecasts a lot of times. That is why they will show these 40’s until the day before and then start lowering their forecast temps as the models verify. If the models miss some of the lower level cold or whatever happens they miss it.
Guess that is what draws me here. Chris will provide model outlooks and things. Model shows snow and he is not afraid to talk about it. I really like when he says he wants to wait until that verifies or that it is a week away so things will change. If things change and it is warmer or we get no snow some act like he made a prediction. Granted, like all the others, he gets it wrong sometimes on his calls. But then they are all trying to predict the weather.
Just took daughter to school. Biggest snowflakes I have seen in a long long time. She even commented on how she was going to catch one and throw it at me. I quess the snow blob laying in my front yard will be gone over the weekend. My only comments until we get another measurable snow here in Lou. will be. MEH!!! Will still read just not getting my hopes up any further for a decent sustained cold spell with snow. Kentucky is just not in the right spot for it. Hope everyone has a great day.
I woke up here at my house with a whopping 00000.1 inch of snow.
Louisville is rocking this year.
You folks in Louisville are much above normal for snowfall this year.
I have to stay indoors without a window, can someone give a report of what type of precip is in that band over Lex, cams aren’t doing good.
I hope we in CKY aren’t doomed to yet another winter of living vicariously through weathercams of places that actually have snow…
OPS
Thanks, Chris. Well, maybe Santa is going to need Rudolph this year to guide his sleigh! Rain/snow falling, winds a blowin’ sounds like a perfect lead in to that story. Here in Somerset, we have mostly cloudy skies and some winds, but not to bad. Don’t think I dressed warm enough for today, though….time will tell. Have a great Tuesday everyone, and thanks again Chris for all you do.
Just have a question for some on here who drop in fro time to time to comment…if you have followed Chris for a while, as many of us on here have since he started this blog, you know , or should know, that what he posts here are his thoughts on what he thinks might happen in a week or so. These are OPINIONS, and not hard fact. When systems get closer, he goes into more of a forecast mode, but still shares his thoughts. If you want a weather forecast, like you hear on the radio, go to noaa,.gov and put in your zip code.
If you like to speculate, and dream, as we do here, and are not happy when the thoughts don’t turn into reality, you need to go elsewhere. I know that we all want snow, and are disappointed with the winters we have had for a while, but, please do not get on here and try to second guess, or complain when a THOUGHT becomes a forecast in your own mind. Sorry… off the soap box now.
“what he posts here are his thoughts on what he thinks might happen in a week or so”
This. And not only that but a lot of times he will flat out say he is not buying it but is showing what the models say. Then, if the models lose the snow and things change you would think that there was a busted forecast or something. Basically: “a THOUGHT becomes a forecast” is what happens a lot.
I will say this as well. I have seen a ton of longer range forecasts that were predicting Nov./Dec. would be warmer (some called for much warmer) weather for the east and southeast. Has not quite panned out for them. Chris was pretty good with the early season cold. Would like to hear what he thinks about the prospects for January considering all everything from the indicators to the way things have been so far this season.
That’s why it is holographic meatloaf. Yum! 😉
Well Said!
KY…a place where you can build a snowman in October and sunbathe in December!
This isn’t a complaint,but instead I am seeking information. What was CB seeing a week ago that made him think that there was a possibility of things being brutally cold through the first week of January? The maps he put in his post showed us being 20-30° below average. I know and understand that it was not a forecast, but simply his thoughts, but was wondering if a particular weather anomaly had changed or broken down,such as a block or something. I have asked CB in my last 3 or so posts about what made him change his thinking, but never got an answer. Does anyone know why,beyond speculation of course?
He rarely adresses his audience on the blog I suppose he is to busy
well the java lady said it above …. it is just his opinion, not a trained met’s forecast …. so basically it’s anybody’s guess. About like going to a Dr and they say, “well it is just my guess that you are sick, not my educated, trained medical knowledge of it”
I know it’s his opinion. I said that in my post. Was wandering if anyone knew.(please read above)
He is a fully certified meteorologist so your comment is invalid.
Several days ago, medium-range models such as GFS and Euro were picking up on signals of blocking features that would allow very cold air to pour into the U.S. Some of these models can ‘see’ out 10-15 days.
Recent runs of these models show that cold air, still. However, as we get closer to the event, the placement of the blocking features has changed, thus the coldest air and its location has been updated.
But, you know what? These runs may change as well. Then, the coldest air location will need to be updated again. Who knows? We may still see some of that cold air.
CB was just alerting us to the potential for brutal cold and highlighted specifics IF the models should verify. He was just giving us something to think about, especially as it was nearing an important traveling event.
Thanks Mike S. Have a great day.
Thanks Chris for all you do.I had a question when it does turn back colder Sunday do you have any thoughts how long that will last? If we can’t have a white Christmas I hope for a cold one.
I will have a cold one on Christmas no matter the weather 😉
I hear you.
Looks like the SPC is going to issue a severe weather statement for this weekend. Anyone surprised? Now about that frigid arctic air on Christmas week? LOL
So I was looking at Accuweather and the forecast average for first 10 daysfin January is 40 degrees, meaning the last 21 days need to average 65 degrees for your 57 degree average for the month to come true. January might be warmer than normal, I don’t know but your prediction is in jeopardy.
Dont worry, the blowtorch is coming.
you remind me of WXman he got banned from the blog last yr for constantly telling Chris he was wrong the only exception he was a meteorologist. Your just out to rile people up and draw attention to yourself.
Don’t worry by the end of January when Bryant realizes his forecast is a complete bust he will be nowhere to be found. Trust me Bryant everyday starting in January I especially will be going out of my way to post daytime highs and everyday in January the daytime high needs to be 50 degrees or higher to get your average hi of 57 degrees for the month.
That 57 degree average seems very implausabile.
Just for reference, here are the highest number of 57+ degree days in Lexington in January since 1971.
1974: 11
2006: 9
2008: 8
2005: 8
Now let’s bump that to 60+
1974: 10
2006: 6
And then 65+
3 is the max and it has occurred 3 times.
January of 1974 also featured 10 days with high’s in the 20’s or 30’s.
Anything above 50 during the day is a blowtorch since mainly blows away chances of snow staying on the ground.
CB’s winter outlook was not much snow, but bitter cold. The bitter cold part might not pan out, but the call for not a lot of snow sure seems a lock for most.
“MUCH milder floods in by the end of the week as our windy and ugly weekend system gets ready to do whatever it’s going to do. As I mentioned earlier… heavy rain, thunder and winter will likely be rolled into a 2-3 day period.”
Seems Chris was already on the milder air and heavy rain and thunder. I think we have to see what is behind that. For that kind of front there is usually a good temp swing which produces these storms. I know that weather.com has my area 40 and below for highs each day Christmas week. Lex18 and wkyt show 30’s Monday but not much beyond that. Guess we will see. Sure has been colder and, for my area, snowier than the past few years for this time of year.
The main problem with this winter so far with my untrained eye is the consistent southeast ridge, that is keeping the jet stream to far to the northwest to allow any big snow chances in KY! Until that can breakdown some and allow the storm track to shift a little more southeast we are going to continue with warmup rain to a backside dusting pattern!
Hopefully Chris can shed some light on how persistent this ridge is going to be the rest of the winter?
Winter starts Saturday, everybody relax.
Around this time, that same forward wisdom has been stated for many years now and has not came to be. It is not like a magic annual reset button 😉 The rolling trend of years has more meaning than a big red button from Staples 😉
Bryant is about two fry’s short of a happy meal.
true, but what’s sad is his opinion is about as good as the forecast on here ………
I only going to comment on this once: Bryant is wanting attention and you all are giving it to him, just stop commenting on his comments
I agree
That applies to all of the naysayers on this blog …
Yeah like Barb and SummerBreeze ROFL
and how old are you ? 12
TODD spot on, back in 80s early 90s it was a different pattern, we get the ole rolling storms as they be futher south/jet stream.
Actually 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s.
Seriously…this is a comment section for weather…not people being childish and internet warriors…Chris works hard and supplies us with all kinds of information! Weather is so so hard to predict…I’m a fan of snow myself, but I don’t get butt hurt if it doesn’t..the great thing about life is that it goes on and there will always be other chances! God bless and I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday!
That would have somehow been more eloquent without the “butt hurt”. Ouch.
Why don’t you all create twitters and have your arguments there. That way I can routinely join in!:)
Storm around New Years that has some potential.
for rain…….
I am NOT a Bryant basher he is understandably frustrated with the outcomes of the past few winters. he has basically given up.
I do not believe the blowtorch will be set on the high position. but the low position is a highly strong possibility.
Distract yourselves from the dearth of snow with a little something shiny.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-70.74,8.19,323
Now that is totally cool!
Nice. Thanks for the link.
I don’t know if CB reads these or not but I think the reason most folks “complain” on this blog is because the blog and CB’s forecasts, blog entries and “tracking tools” generally go outside the viewing area.
I’m pretty sure Paducah, Covington, Louisville and Pikeville are not in CB’s viewing area. So giving information on weather in those areas is frustrating for his viewers in Central Kentucky. Paducah is over 250 miles from Lexington. For comparison’s sake, drive that same distance north and you’re about 30 miles outside of Cleveland. Is anyone here because of their interest in the weather in Cleveland? (They’re getting rain there this weekend too, btw)
Other Peoples Snow
OPS, yeah you know me!