Good Wednesday, folks. All eyes continue to be on the evolution of the weekend system that promises to bring some mild and wild into the bluegrass state. Heavy rain and thunderstorms may try to steal the show before winter makes a quick comeback.
The GFS is the farthest east of the models with the track of the weekend storm. It takes it right on top of us and therefore brings the heaviest rains our way…
If that were to verify, flooding would be a big concern across much of central and western Kentucky. As I said… the GFS is the farthest east with that system. The rest of the models are stronger and farther west with the low and take the flooding threat to our west.
The Canadian Model suggests heavy rain on Friday into Saturday then a thunderstorm and high wind threat for Sunday. Check out what it tries to develop as the front goes to our east on Monday…
It develops another wave of low pressure as the arctic air pulls in here. There’s a lot of energy hanging back in the trough, so It’s something worth keeping an eye on.
I will have updates on all that later today. I also want to let you know there is a decent signal for an eastern US winter storm at some point between Christmas and the New Year. The devil is always in the detail, but the synoptic pattern since October has been well advertised.
See you later today. Take care.
Thanks Chris
Chris, Thanks for the heads up! I hope you understand how much you’re appreciated!
I totally agree! Not the post, but to thank Chris Baily for all his hard work in doing what he does for us weather weenies and weeniets.
If we all give him a big thanks Mother Nature may just reward us with some kind weather, the White kind, that 85% of us including Chris wants to see.
Have a great day everyone.
Is Lex close to the wettest year on record?
From his evening forecast it was close to being a top 10 if the forecast pans out
Rain in the spring and summer is always fine by me. Winter rain is miserable. 🙁
agreed
Fingers crossed that the Canadian model verifies on Monday!
do not take that model to Vegas.
That model? Try ALL of them. None of them are that great, especially for this area in winter.
This.
Thanks Chris for keeping us informed. I love the weather in Ky. It’s always full of surprises. I would love to see a snow like the ones we had when I was a kid { not gonna say how long ago that was } when you could build snow forts that would last for awhile, but if we don’t get it I am still enjoying this. winter.
I can remember as a child in the 70s we would get out for Christmas break and not go back till almost Feb ….. as soon as one snow would start melting off, another one would come and cover all back and sled riding down big hills where the cow patties would be froze, that was such good times …. my kids now don’t even know what true sledding is 🙂
Not wanting to wish flooding rains on anyone, I hope that the GFS does its thing and moves that thing west….here in central and eastern KY, we’ve had enough rain for a bit…but I have my waders ready, just in case! (At some point, I would really like to wade snow with them.) 😉 Thanks Chris. Have a great HUMP DAY, everyone!
I dont see why people say the models are bad in the Ohio Valley? I lived in Minnesota, Florida, and Texas and the models are just as bad. They’re not that good anywhere! And people always mention why the models have been making the same mistakes over and over. Its because tue models dont “learn,” these computers are only programmed to use the specific algorithms the humans have put into it. And why not fix it? MONEY!!! It takes A LOT of money to make these models and the NWS does not have the budget to pay for many upgrades to the models we own here in US. (like the GFS) And humans aren’t perfect either, the math behind the models is VERY complicated and they can only do so much and wait and see how they perform. Models have to take in data from all over the world to calculate its predictions like the pressure, temp, etc. from Moscow, Russia and how are they supposed to get data from the middle of the ocean? They have many bouys out in the ocean to monitor weather conditions but they’re far and spread out. Some sites may even input the wrong data into the models. So now you see why models dont perform very well, Good.
Wow, didnt realize how long I made it, so far the longest comment ive commented so far. For a year and a half ive been following this blog, not once have I seen a comment talk about any of this on why models do bad, dont expect them to be better anytime soon. Just hope some of you have learned something
Possibly because this area is more difficult to forecast winter weather than Florida or Minnesota…So….that makes the already bad models seem worse.
The odds of sun or rain in florida are good in winter
The odds of cold and snow in Minnesota are good.
Here it’s the great transition zone where no one really knows where the line will end up.
And then, there’s the southeast ridge…..I mean, what’s up with that and why were we not dealing with a southeast ridge in the 70s 80s and 90s? Where was it then? Did it just appear the past decade or so?
Excuses, excuses, excuses ; )
Are you a spokesperson for UFM? United Federation of Mets.
I wish I could use that rationale for my national business outlooks! Winning!
So let’s get this straight: If the mets get one right they get the credit, but if wrong, it is because of the models. That is one groovy arrangement and me likey! 🙂
Point being, if the models are so sucky at outlooks and is accepted by the UFM, why bother?
…….. Is there a UFM? 🙂
I will say this, every met is different. It’s up to the met to use their own understanding of meteorology and the interpertation of the models to make a forecast. Some mets even discard certain model runs based on their understanding and explain why. I will not say who, but there is a met here in ky that forecast a lot better than CB (maybe because he doesnt rely as much on models), I am not implying that CB is bad or anything, he’s a lot better than others that are much worse ive seen, just saying that his forecasts aren’t AS reliable as some other more experienced mets. Yes, of course busts will always occur, but just know that things like they call the “butterfly effect” can and will occur (and yes, that IS probably the only legitimate excuse I can think of.) Never have I once heard a met blame a bust on the models.
I know who Israel is talking about I betcha the farm his initials are MW.
Chris,I really appreciate you for doing this blog. It is the first thing I read every morning. I know you are very busy,but you still find the time to fill us in on what is in store for us weather wise. Have a great day CB and everyone else.
I see the NWS in Louisville are sticking their necks out for some possible snow flurries Sunday Night!
Thanks for the heads up NWS!
There was a write up on the NWS website earlier this year explaining how challenging it is forecasting winter weather in the Ohio Valley.