Good Monday and welcome to a new work week and a totally different weather pattern. The big news is we are FINALLY going to get in on a widespread soaker across the state over the next few days. This has been a long time coming and will go a long, long way to help out our bone dry ground.
Let’s start with today as some folks will be seeing some rains. Most of the state will be dry today… but a plume of moisture will develop across the deep south and take aim and southeastern Kentucky later this afternoon. Rain will break out from southwest to northeast across this region and you can track the drops here…
Outside of the rains… clouds will be on the increase as temps hang out in the 50-55 degree range for highs.
This brings us to the first true fall storm to take aim on the region and this is bad boy promising to bring us a significant rain event. This low will be coming from the south and working right on top of us over the next few days. Here is a map I put together showing the storm track…
Rain will break out from south to north later tonight into early Tuesday. Those rains will become heavy at times Tuesday into Tuesday night for some as the low works right on top of us. This low should also bring some windy weather to our part of the world as it strengthens on it’s way toward the Great Lakes.
How much rain are we talking about here? Some areas could see almost as much rain as they have seen in the past month. I will have a rainfall forecast map coming later today.
The rains will pull away early Wednesday as chilly temps and breezy conditions remain. Highs should be around 50 as skies dry out from south to north.
A fast moving system dives in here Wednesday night into Thursday with a band of rain that may change to a mix of rain and snow on the tail end. The best chance of that happening will be during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday across the higher elevations. Winds will be gusty and temps will drop and hang out in the low and mid 40s during the day.
As I mentioned… this is a quick shot of cold as it begins to move out Friday as westerly winds take over. Highs will be in the 40s with partly sunny skies.
Temps this weekend will moderate back into the 50s with a 60 or two possible into early Thanksgiving week. I say early because a BIG change looks to move in by later Tuesday into Wednesday before turkey day and carry us through the holiday weekend. This has been a well advertised change to cold here on the blog and that looks to come to pass. It may happen with a potent storm just in time for pre Thanksgiving holiday travelers. How all that plays out remains to be seen… but wintry weather across much of the country looks like a good bet.
Some of the longer range runs of the GFS have been showing that wintry weather around here. How about a pre Thanksgiving snowfall from the GFS?
That is from one of the latest runs of the GFS for next Wednesday. The cold air is a given for the long holiday weekend and we will have to figure out just how real the wintry weather chances are as we get closer.
I will have another update on things later this afternoon or early evening so be sure to check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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Chris, you do a good job of putting a “spin” on your job…You make weather “sound” exciting…In my opionion, this is typical fall Nov. weather, not “Winter is coming early type stuff…..Sounds fun though, I will give you that,,,It’s kind of talking about the Bengals..Its fun to talk about the possiblies and what ifs, but they always come up short
i like the gfs map because if you move the bullseye 100 miles north it puts the tristate in the sweet spot, lexington is always the sweet spot this far out and we know what that means
Chris I”ve waited all summer for winter!!
Now now Tommy… you hogged all of the snow last winter!
Thanks, Chris! Brought out the heavier socks this morning. Gonna need the umbrella tomorrow, and a heavier coat, too, it seems.
Looking forward to the next update, and your thoughts on how much rain we might see…have a GREAT Monday, everyone.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but it worries me the cold is always 10-14 days out. I’ve noticed this trend all Fall. The cold is projected, but never fully materializes. A few weeks back, I mentioned that WxRisk’s winter forecast said there would be multiple false alarms of big cold shots in the 10-14 day time range. It seems that has been the case so far. Until it gets here, I’m going to be skeptical considering the moderate la nina setup.
I agree that the GFS is sending a false alarm here for the end of the month with respect to the cold. Just because it has been consistent with its forecast, does not mean its right. The problem is that as long as the GFS keeps the ridge over the Bering Strait, there will be a deep trough in the west and a ridge in the east. The GFS has constantly tried to knock down the SE ridge. I’m thinking we’ll see it back off the big cold over the next week.
Yeah this happens EVERY year. The medium range models get all gung-ho and happy about huge shots of arctic air…but it never materializes. And the reason is because they underestimate the strength it takes to dislodge the warm SE ridge. It’s going to be a long while before we see snow around here.
I’ll take that bet! 😉
Yeah, I agree with you. I thought when I hear winter was starting early that meant we may get some winter weather in October. Lol. November to me should have some snow and I don’t consider it that early.
Hmmmmmm………I thought the GFS was the model you usually go with WXMAN? So now you’re saying you don’t believe it’s accurate? I’m confused
Then you haven’t been paying much attention. Because I’ve always said that GFS has it’s idiosynchrasies, but it does a great job once you learn it’s ways. I check out the ECMWF, Canadian, etc. too… but I will put the GFS up against any of them. If you go solely by the Euro model, we should be under 3 feet of snow every Winter.
What’s on the line? And, what are the terms? 😉
Wow, the rain is moving in here faster than I expected.
Bet? I don’t remember betting anything! We’ll just have to see what happens. I’m cool if the trough pans out and I’m wrong. However, I just don’t think the models have the Pacific nailed down…and that has many effects for us downstream.
that same GFS also predicted a COLDER THAN NORMAL SUMMER over most of the central and eastern U.S. and well, we know how that one turned out…JUST SAYING!
What a raw winter feeling day here in southern ky. rain,foggy/low clouds and temps. in the mid and upper 40’s..
Looking forward to the cold/snowy prospects for the holiday week ahead..BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING HERE WE COME…:(
LOL….
Quite a temp bust today, eh?
I am not a weather person, but I feel it in my bones. 🙂 I put my trust in Chris. Hang in there Chris. I bet you’re right!
This would be great!! A friendly wager on the blog. Weather dude against weather dude…the smackdown of the century…or, well, maybe not quite that big, but hey, it would be a nice thing to help get us through what is sure to be a winter full of “close but no cigar”, with the outside chance at the real snowstorm.