Good Friday to one and all and welcome to the weekend. I often kid that the blog is on a 3 day weekend schedule and with the weather like it is today… that is certainly the case this week. While things have been rather boring of late… we do see some big changes coming later this weekend into next week. It is a change that will eventually lead to an earlier than normal start to winter for much of the country.

Today is a rubber stamp day meaning it will be the same as we have seen all week with temps in the 30s to start and highs in the lower 70s to end. Skies will continue to run on the sunny side.

Saturday will see the changes begin across the western part of the state as a cold front swings through. This front will have a band of decent showers with it across the west and will keep temps way down with highs there only in the mid and upper 50s. Farther east… sunny skies should be noted for most of the day as temp warm into the mid and upper 60s again.

That front will slowly cross the rest of the state Saturday night into Sunday. It will bring a ribbon of rain with it as it rolls eastward. Temps Sunday will be much cooler with the entire area likely staying in the 50s.

We have been targeting the first half of next week for some decent rains across parts of the state. We are likely to see a wave of low pressure rolling northeastward out of the Gulf states Monday and this will throw some rain into our region. A second, more potent, low will then ride up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday and will also throw some more rains our way. As of right now.. central and eastern Kentucky stands to get in on the heaviest rains. I can’t really argue with the rain totals on the GFS right now…



The European Model is similar with the track of the low…



There is still a lot wiggle room on the track of that low, so the placement of the rain shield is not set in stone. This will be a chilly rain as highs likely stay in the 40s.

The rains will pull away early Wednesday as we await the arrival of another fast moving system diving in from the northwest. Wind should really crank up along and behind this system as MUCH colder air pours in here for Thursday and Friday.

GFS Thursday Morning


We will have to keep an eye on this setup for Thursday and Friday as I am seeing a little more potential than the models are currently showing. The trough looks like it wants to go negative tilt on us and this may crank up a slightly bigger storm. The models are also likely to play catch up on the amount of cold air available behind this front. Hmmm… it’s on my radar anyway.

The pattern heading into Thanksgiving week continues to look like one that can deliver some wild weather across much of the country. Remember a few weeks ago when I said the word “Arctic” would likely be coming into play for the end of the month into early December? Well… look at the bitter cold showing up in Canada next week…



Now THAT is impressive to see. Where does the new GFS run see that bitter cold going for Thanksgiving week?

Thanksgiving Day


Saturday, Nov. 27th


Yes… I know it’s the long range GFS and should be taken with ten thousand grains of salt… but the overall pattern is one that could actually lead to something similar by the end of the month into early December. As always… only time will tell.

Have a great Friday and check back for weekend updates as the blog never takes a day off.  Take care.