Good Thursday everyone. Today is a special day in this country as we pause to honor all those great men and women who have served this country so proudly through the years. Take the time today to approach a veteran and give them a big thanks for all they have done for the good ol U.S. of A. Mother Nature is doing her part of saying thanks by giving us another awesome weather day.

The weather days are numbered as our pattern changes this weekend. Those changes will bring a return to chilly temps and the chance for some decent rains across much of the state into early next week. The longer term outlook for the last half of the month continues to point toward even colder temps and wintry weather across much of the country.

Highs today and Friday will be similar to where we were Thursday as most areas head back into the 70-75 degree range. The lows have been cold with most areas in the 30s. Here is a cool stat for ya… Lexington’s low the past 3 mornings… 37, 37 and 37. Can we make it 4 in a row?

The changes start this weekend as a slow moving cold front crosses the state from west to east Saturday into early Sunday. This front will have a batch of showers with it with western Kentucky seeing more of these bad boys. The rains will REALLY decrease the farther east you get. Temps for Saturday will be tricky as we get a very sharp west-east temp gradient. Highs in the east will be well into the 60s with the west struggling into the low and mid 50s. Central Kentucky will be the battleground as the timing of the clouds and showers will have the final say here.

Colder air will move in for Sunday and this comes ahead of low pressure developing to our southwest. Actually… this may be two separate waves of low pressure that will track northeastward from the south toward the western Carolinas. A month from now… this would likely be a good snow maker… as it stands now… it looks to be a cold rain maker. I can still see where there COULD be a touch of frozen stuff at the start of the rain in the north… but rain will take center stage. This has a shot at bringing a good half to one inch of rain to parts of the area. The GFS Ensembles show the welcome rain and just how chilly it will be…



We continue to look much colder by the end of next week into the weekend before Thanksgiving. A BIG push of VERY cold air will be invading much of the country during this time and that will carry us through Thanksgiving. Given the fact we are in a normal seasonal transition of the weather pattern across the northern hemisphere and we are seeing a surge of VERY cold air moving southward out of Canada… the models are going to have a lot of issues with how to handle it all in the medium range. They have enough issues during this time period anyway… but expect a lot of wild swings until they can figure out the depth of what all will be going on.

That said… many of the ENSEMBLE runs from the various models continue to be pretty consistent in the wintry pattern that should take hold for much of the nation.

I posted some model analog maps a few days ago that had some heavy hitter years showing up. The Canadian Model Ensembles centered on next Friday continues that trend…



There you have 1976, 1995 and 1950 showing up again. All three were memorable winters around here.

Now lets fast forward 3 days from the above map and use the GFS Ensembles instead…



Sure enough… those same 3 years show up as producing a similar pattern for this time of year. Does that mean anything? Well… if you like cold and snow… it can’t hurt to see those years showing up.

Have a great Thursday and take care.