Good Sunday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. We are finishing up the final weekend of the year on a very soggy note. Rain and chilly temps are teaming up to deliver us some of the ugly stuff out there today. The focus from this point on is the return of winter this week and how this is the start of a very wintry period.
Today’s rain will scoot to our northeast during the early afternoon hours. Winds will gust up behind this system as temps hang in the 40-45 degree range. Your tracking toys…
Current temperatures
Much colder air sweeps in this evening as a strong cold front moves across the state. This will likely have a band of light snow and flurries behind it that will carry us into Monday morning…
Highs Monday will generally run in the 20s on a gusty northwesterly wind that makes it feel even colder. Keep a eye out for the potential for a band of light snow in southeastern parts of the state Monday evening into the overnight hours.
A couple of weak systems will dive southeastward across the Ohio Valley into New Year’s Eve and Day and anyone of these can spit out some light snow or flurries along their path. What happens with those will be directly impacted by the stronger system coming in behind them for Thursday.
This is where the model fun begins. The poor GFS is literally lost… honestly. It has waffled back and forth with this system and has NO clue on what to do with this week or beyond. I hammer on the GFS so much because it’s generally the model of record in the United States. All those terrible weather apps you have generally just copy and paste what the model says.
That said… I am not pretending to know exactly how this system will unfold or how much of an impact it will have on our weather. The overall setup will feature one low diving in from the northwest, with another system developing along the east coast at some point Thursday into Friday…
A lot will depend on how strong or weak that first low is as it works across our part of the world. Figuring that out will be the challenge we face in the coming days. Once we get a better handle on that, we can be more definitive on exaclty the impact it has on our weather.
These systems are likely to merge and form into a monster of a storm to our northeast and that will drag down super cold air and wraparound snows in here for Friday.
Check out what the European Ensembles have coming in behind that by late next weekend into early the following week…
Moral of the story… we have a busy pattern that will keep throwing arctic shots and wintry systems our way through the month of January.
On a related noted… it’s been a while since I’ve had to calm down the comments section. Many folks who have been posters on here since the beginning no longer comment because of how petty and rude a lot of the comments have become. I routinely get e-mails from people asking me to clean it up. We have children that read this blog everyday… teachers even use it to teach weather in the classroom. I love you guys… but the constant whining and rudeness needs to end.
I will have updates later in the day. Take care.
Do like YouTube and make everyone have a Google+ account in order to comment. 😉
That, or use Facebook where it shows who they are. Then ban the offenders. It is pitiful that us Americans can’t discuss the weather without being insulting to each other.
It is a cold rain down here in the south…looking forward to some of that white stuff called Snow!!! Thanks Chris for keeping us informed…..you do a terrific job and I for one…am very grateful for all of your hard work!!
🙂
Thanks Chris!..As an educator I appreciate your efforts and all your hard work….
I’m not sure how cold those maps are showing Chris, but I’m guessing it’s below zero in most of the state, am I seeing that right or not.
Thanks for all you do, Chris. I am one of those teachers who teach my class how to make a hypothesis using information from this site and others. My students love to peruse kyweathercenter. Have a great week! Here’s hoping for some snow!
Thanks for the great job!
probably at the end of this week we will be sayin another missed opportunity.
I’ve always looked forward to 2 things in Kentucky in the Fall. UK Football and the upcoming winter season. Unfortunately they always produce the same results despite the lofty predictions. 🙁
Despite that my glass continues to remain half full and I eagerly anticipate the possibility of snow in the upcoming weeks. Central Ky is certainly due a smackdown. All I want is a legitimate reason to go to Krogers and Lowes to empty the shelves.
Hence I suggest the decline of participation could be more to do with the constant misses rather than posting behavior.
Seems the behavior is the symptom and the wimpy snow results are the cause. Even wimpy is being generous for a lot of areas.
Agreed but I keep coming back because I’m an addict and despite all the heartbreak and dissapointment my misguided optimism/addiction keeps me going. Central KY is certainly due a smackdown at some point and I will eagerly await the next couple of weeks of potential ( snow or dissapointment to be detrmined later). All I want is a legitimate reason to go empty the shelves at Krogers and Lowes.
With that being said my glass continues to remain half full and I eagerly await the snow possibilities in the upcoming weeks. Central Ky is certainly due for a smack down. All I want is a legitimate reason to go empty the shelves at Krogers and Lowes.
Agreed on the petulant commenters; perhaps the easiest fix would be one employed by many websites – only allow posting through verified accounts such as Facebook. Anonymity somehow removes the need for civility… resulting in a need to remove the anonymity of the petty and petulant.
ahh u know what I got to say to any poster that HAS RUN AWAY Because of a few knuckle heads.. BYE when u let someone on a blog hurt ur feelings u really NEED HELP, SERIOUSLY
I have to disagree Rolo. Not everyone has the stomach to deal with those cyber bullies time after time after time. They don’t need help, but the bully types need a lot of hours in some sort of manners school.
Thank you Chris, I follow your weather blog daily and appreciate the time you take to do it for us. I live in Glasgow and know teachers that read your blog. Have a great day.
Actually, it’s been my experience that people online behave exactly as they would IRL. If you’re a jerk online you tend to be one in real life as well. IMHO you should never use online anonymity to lower your morals. It’s why I use my real name anywhere I post, accountability. Your mileage may vary.
Nah, most of the issue is the fair weathered nature of the actual snow results. When we actually got decent snows over a broad area a few years ago the tone was overall happy joy.
Keep in mind the trend of theme for the blog over the years. Ten years ago we were still talking Big Snow as the main theme and treated the five inch snows like little flush to throw back.
Now the five in hers ARE the big snows for a lot of us and just as elusive. The only common denominator for big systems now tend to be ice. Even our snow finned friend Clipper has abandoned us. Darn fence!
fish, flush, predictive text.
Think of snow as gold and this blog as a mining town. Fair analogy as far as winter.
in hers, inchers. Big predictive whoops on that one.
Actually, BubbaG, I don’t post as much because of the negative comments. It doesn’t hurt my feelings, it saddens me that grown adults act like that over whether or not it snows. If every time you comment someone has something negative to say it takes away the point of having a blog about weather. I’m not saying people shouldn’t have an opinion, I’m just saying there’s better ways of voicing it. There’s just no excuse for being nasty about it. So, I read the blog because I enjoy the updates and some of the comments but as far as commenting much of my own, I don’t. It aggravates me that sometimes people take it out on CB like he is the one who controls the weather, lol. If he could do that he would be a billionaire and we wouldn’t have the blog 🙂 I still love snow as much as I ever did but I’ll be danged if I’ll get on a blog and blame someone else for the lack of it. You are one of the few who never get nasty with the comments albeit they are sometimes not the most positive. Okay, I guess that’s more than my two cents worth, lol. Hope everyone has a Happy New Year. P.S. We will get snow.
Agreed on your perspective 🙂 Nasty comments and blog heckling directed at the host is not good. No spinning it otherwise.
Models suggesting a complete bust for Kentucky this week 🙁
That does look cold I like the bulls eye treatment over KY
I simply enjoy reading the blog and getting more information than what one can get on the news. It is central Kentucky specific, Chris obviously enjoys his job, and it is a great learning tool to see how much science goes in to weather prediction. It is a hard job to get it right! Thanks for all the extra time you take to keep us updated on the weather. The weatherman’s job has evolved into a 24 hr job, so you better love it! Thank you.
I used to post more and enjoyed reading the comments when the actual weather was discussed. A few on here have gotten to the point of not allowing anyone to have an opinion without accusing them of being a hater. Used to be that some weather discussions took place and you could get real updates on the comment section. Now if a model run comes in different than CBs forecast and someone posts what it shows they are a hater and get called out for it. I think a few have figured out how to push a couple of people’s buttons on here and that’s why all the back and forth garbage goes on.
This. Best though to just luv the haters and keep on posting 🙂
True, but then you have those that are negative the other way as well. It is constant going on about the “bust”, “dome”, “fence”, etc. And if someone posts something about the possibility coming up you do see plenty of negative replies trying to bring them down with such talk. It may/may not be the intention but it seems like that happens to much. And honestly we could have a huge snow and at that time there would be none of this. But the next snow it would return. Hard to look at the models and have any positive thoughts when there is constant negativity.
I did like when others would discuss other outlooks and such. But just reading here it seems the negativity has risen to another level. And some honestly read as veiled jabs at Chris. Like when he shows what the models are showing and says he is not buying it yet or something along those lines. When nothing happens you get all these remarks about it being missed and Chris being wrong and such. Just to much of that kind of stuff.
well said, Matthew.
Chris,I hope we get afoot of Snow in paintsville!!! This is my favorite time of the year⛄️❄️⛄️
Thanks for all of the updates,and your the beat weather Dude Ever!!!
Best*
Seems like we’re stuck in a ridiculous awful pattern right now..Bout’s of cold air with no precip followed by warm up’s and cold rain..See no reason for this to change in the future..Unless something big changes in the ao,nao,pna its gonna be a repeating pattern..We may not average 57 degree’s for Jan. like someone was saying but if something does not flip i would say slightly above for Jan..Boring weather to say the least..
Last year frankfort area had 13 inches of snow for the season, this year so far 2.5 to 3 inches and these are a combo of toe biters, This year has some work to do if we are going to reach last years totals!
Winter started last week, I think we have time.
That is 9″ more than Richmond area. You guys were living large! 😉
Hep we got lucky with some north of the river ankel biters that upped our totals, not giving up on the snow yet, outside of the dusting on the 24th not much has happened winter weather wise since early December!
Yep 😉
the track of that low out of canda is the key to this whole storm on the east coast, and another site said it was going to follow the artic boundary and the real question is, does it sink that far south. Take those two points and you will know where the storm off the east coast forms.
Without throwing out names, there are definitely a couple of trollers that come here on a regular basis. Both, I believe are genuinely interested in the weather but do enjoy pushing our buttons. Haven said that, if the rest of us would simply ignore those “button pushing posts” the truly negative and sometimes nasty back and forth would stop. As far as the weather itself goes, the negativity on that is most likely not going to stop until and if we finally get a decent snowfall…. Problem is, trends don’t turn around so easily, so we snow lovers may have several more years of complaining while the northern states as well as Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas get “our” snowfalls one after another while we get consistent flooding cold rain.
Speaking of cold rain, it’s a 38 degrees in Versailles, with rain. I’m going out on a limb here but tomorrow it will be 28 degrees and dry. I love Kentucky weather. (not)
Frankly (perhaps sadly) were it not for some of the mild conflict, the blog would lose some of the artificial spice. Natural spice would be snow, but that resource has not been indigenous to our location. Word of the day: Indigenous.
Such is the case for living on the fence (33 and above is when most of the moisture falls). To further the gold=snow mining town analogy: The models=pyrite (fool’s gold).
Good analogy Bubba, but as of the latest models, there isn’t even pyrite in the mix 7 days out. lol
I am a teacher who still uses this site frequently for maps, explanations, insight and science. Thanks Chris!
I think those who are so upset need to realise how close to you were to getting a lot of snow, very early in the season. That of course is probably more irritating than anything but you were only 60-70 miles or so away from having 13″ for the season so far if you live in Lexington / Louisville.
We lost all of that snow as did pretty much all of Indiana and Ohio on the December 21st storm, and we dont average that much snow in early Dec anyway so its not really been that horrible. At least we werent basking in continual 50-60 degree temps from Halloween until now. LOL Ponds and lakes froze over up here and we had two weeks of no grass visible… so this Kentuckian (though pretty much a buckeye to the rest) has been somewhat pleased with winter so far. Give it time, you will get snow eventually.
I don’t think you can throw away winter in Kentucky as a whole. The northern extreme of the state has experienced everything that was hoped for. We’ve had about 13″ so far at CVG, been down to 4 degrees so far, and the lakes and ponds froze over before the Dec 21st storm wiped it all clean.
Have faith.. your snow is coming!
For you maybe. Central Ky continues to be the forgotten stepchild of frozen precipitation.
Yep, but in other folks defense, everything is relative to your own general vicinity of perspective. Mine is the foundation of the fence- the KY river. Though a snow killer south, it has protected us from half of the vicious ice storms since I have been here (1986). Lexington got smacked three more times than us.
Thank you Chris for being the best. Hoping for snow on the 5th so I can extend break a little longer. Appreciate the hours you spend keeping us up to date. You are the best.
Oh, I am a teacher too and my kids get me to check daily in the hope of snow. They also are interested in the spring when we have storms, they trust you as do I to keep us safer.
Speaking of absentee posters, I miss my buddy from Woodford County, “Patty from Versailles” 🙂
So after reading the first 10comments i have to laugh….are we in kindergarten or something??? So weather disappointment equals rudeness on a weather blog???? What the heck…..sounds like some childish stuff to me. Chris operates this blog at his expense of time and resources; so if you dont like his style of forecasting then goodbye…. Stop being rude and disrespectful over WEATHER. Last i checked no one on this planet has control over that
I don’t post anymore either, it’s also because of the negativity. Not because it hurts my feelings, but more so because it’s obnoxious and often times appears as though everyone commenting is either in elementary school, or looking for a place to troll.
I love this blog and check it several times a day. Hoping for snow.
Thanks Chris for all your hard work. Where’s Keavyman?
Not sure what the normal highs are for the days the model maps are showing,but 32-36° below normal would put us in the low single digit to zero temps for highs and in the 10-20° below range for lows. So if we can cash in on a good snow around Thursday, it would stick around for a while. That would be awesome. Time will only tell of course. Thank you CB for all you do.
Personally i find some of the comment’s somewhat funny in an otherwise boring weather pattern…So go ahead someone insult me..I need a good laugh..Now speaking of insult’s GFS is again showing a system around the 6-7th..It had this several day’s ago but disappeared and now whaa-laaa it’s back…Hopefully it will stay around this time if you like ice and snow…I no longer have excess to the Euro so have no idea what it is showing..Figured if i cancelled my sub maybe a blizzard would show up with no way to track it..lol
History has proven that snow 7 days out will never happen in CKY.
As promised… My NW Indiana update… Forecast of snow turned into the reality of freezing drizzle and light freezing rain this morning… As I mentioned yesterday, it’s all relative. Central Kentucky isn’t alone when getting skunked.
My take on it: I post my thoughts and from what I gleaned from various other sources, and that January would be much warmer than normal. For some reason I’m labeled a troll and pretty much bear the brunt of some rude remarks. I state that there is an unreasonable amount of dependence on long range modeling, instead of recent trends, and I’m insulted again. Other than questioning people, I have not name called or been rude to other posters. Yet a certain two that I know of will make off the cuff rude remarks to other posters, just for disagreeing or stating frustration. The one thing I will agree with Jeff on, and Lord knows it’s the only thing, let’s make it a Google Plus or Facebook registration type of thing. I have nothing to hide, so let’s all put our first and last names on here. Looking back, I have not said one thing that would be inappropriate for a school aged child to read. If my comments are viewed as negative, then I’m no different than many others including Andy who bellyached about all the cold rain we got down here in southeast KY in December. Sorry for the long winded post, but I strongly encourage CB to make us all register. We’ll see who the trolls are then.
*smh*
C’mon Jeff, that’s the best you can do? I’ve tried to engage you in a civil conversation, and you reply back with your usual one or two line retort that is, of course, rude. And you’ve been rude with other posters as well. It’s guys like you that make this place like the Cold War. No pun intended.
You have been no saint and bear false witness against me. You have been extremely obnoxious about this blowtorch nonsense and falsely label any retort as an attack.
Im not labeling you as anything other than a weather enthusiasts, my one issue is you keep bringing up that we hang onto long range models that never come true, well thats exactly what you did for your average of 57 and very little mousture during January. Cant call us out for watching (living and dying) long range models when you do the same. Im sure your a good dude and I have no problem with your posts although I’ve disagreed with them.
Thanks Emerson. Love weather like the rest of you, love winter wx (true winter weather that is, severe wx season in spring and so on.
Chris, I’m sorry you have to deal with rude ppl on a blog….anyone who has complaints with your blog should stop reading it! I live in eastern KY and myself and many of my friends enjoy reading all your updates. I’m sure you read the weather as well as can possibly be done. We have wild weather in Ky anyway. Keep up your cheerful posts and we will all try to overlook the ppl who desire to be negative
wow, I thought there must be a big snow event coming with all these comments!
thanks to Chris and thanks to the folks who add something interesting or even funny without being hurtful or rude.
looks like we got a few shots at snow coming people…hang on!
Although I am no longer in KY, I follow this blog to see what is going on where people I know live, and also because it gives a heads up on what may happen further south. In winter, extreme cold air often comes right on down I-75 to the land of Alligators. I noticed that Chris’s take on tropical activity was doggone good too. Chris Bailey does a great job.
As for the comments, I think the best thing is to go to using Facebook because it knocks out the hiding behind a screen name and throwing barbs at others commenting. At least one knows who the guilty is, and the guilty can be blocked from further comments if it comes to that.
I see nothing wrong with the comments about “doggone it missed us again” or “we need rain” and similar. It is the personal slams others have mentioned I think is wrong.