Good evening gang. The pocket of cold air moving into the state from the northwest is creating enough instability for some low topped thunderstorms. These storms are producing graupel or some very soft hail. This should taper off later this evening as we lose the heating from the day.

Track the action here…

The cold air will continue to move in overnight as gusty northwesterly winds set in. By morning… temps will hit the middle 30s in many areas when some snowflakes will mix in with the rain showers. That will set us up for some on and off snow shower and rain showers from Friday into Friday night. Again… this is not a big deal… but the first flakes of the season always get our attention and get us ready for the months ahead.

The highest elevations across eastern Kentucky can pick up a VERY light accumulation Friday night… especially on elevated surfaces. Anyone is fair game for a roof top coating in a heavier snow shower during this time… but most of the flakes that fall will quickly melt away.

Winds will be gusty through Friday night and this will add an extra chill to the air.

I promised you guys a look at a seasonal forecast model that actually matches some of my thoughts for the upcoming winter. If you are a regular reader… I have dropped enough hints over the past few months that I believe we get a half and half winter. Low and behold the CFS model agrees with me on the temperature pattern…

Hmmm… this model has been horrible for most of the year. Maybe I should rethink things before I put my winter forecast out. By the way… that will be coming out in a few weeks. It will be here in the days leading up to Thanksgiving… which is the traditional release of my winter outlook.

Help us out by posting the weather where you live this evening. Take care.