Good Thursday to one and all and thanks for choosing the Center for your weather needs. Much of the state got in on some good rains Wednesday into last night and those rains are pulling away early today. Now we look ahead to the introduction of Old Man Winter that looks to come in on a windy note over the next few days.

Let’s start with the precious present and that is the weather out there today. Areas in the far east will start off with low clouds and departing showers as the rest of the state wakes up to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will increase today as we get in on a mostly cloudy sky across the board. Highs will spike up into the 50s ahead of our real push of cold air that arrives quickly Thursday night. This push of cold air will be accompanied by some rain showers ahead of it. You should see  a few of those showing up on regional radar later in the day…

That brings us to the wintry portion of our program. Here is a breakdown of what I expect…

– Rain and snow showers will be around first thing Friday morning as we wake up to temps in the middle 30s.

– Those same rain and snow showers will continue on and off through the day Friday with highs only in the upper 30s to low 40s. Western Ky will see highs in the mid 40s.

– You won’t see rain and snow all day… hence the word showers.

– Winds will crank up Friday as well with gusts to 20mph+ possible. This means we have to break out the Wind Chill Index for the first time this year as the feel like temps will hit the 20s at times.

– Speaking of 20s… lows for both Saturday and Sunday mornings will dip into the 20-25 degree range. Brrrr.

– Scattered snow showers and flurries will be around from Friday evening into early Saturday… especially across the east.

– It is always tough this time of year to get any snow to stick and that will certainly hold true for later this week. Not just because of the warm ground… but this is not a big deal in terms of snow. It is only getting this much play because it’s the first flakes of the season and it is coming a few weeks earlier than normal. That said… a roof top coating cannot be ruled out in one of the stronger snow showers… especially Friday night across the higher elevations. The NAM continues to suggest  the coating possibility…

Temps will warm pretty quickly early next week as the 60s return for several days. The pattern for the first half of the month is transient… meaning things keep moving along without one extreme or the other taking up residence for too long. That holds true by the end of next week into the following weekend as another shot of cold arrives on the scene…

GFS Saturday, November 13th

There you have it… the first flakes of the season for many over the next few days. Ahhhh… how I have missed those flakes after a long, hot summer.

I will have an update coming later today that will include a seasonal forecast model that looks an awful lot like your friendly weather dude’s thoughts about the upcoming winter. That might be the kiss of death to that particular model. haha

Have a great Thursday and take care.