Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. We have a busy rest of the weather week ahead of us as we get set for everything from a soaking rain for some to the first flakes of the season across much of the state. Your friendly weather dude likes these active times as the weather has been way to boring for way to long.

We really do have a lot to talk about for the next 4 or 5 days and that includes the forecast models coming back around to a bigger storm in the eastern part of the country. This is basically something similar to what the European Model had been showing before it jumped into a very progressive solution like the GFS had been showing. The GFS is coming around to the east coast storm idea as well… when it had been pretty much been showing nothing from the past several days. This coming from the same model that had NO trough or cold in the eastern US up until a few days ago while all the other models showed this.

The “trend” of the models now is to bring a nice burst of rain in here later today into tonight as a cold front moves in from the west. Moisture from the cut off low across the deep south will stream northward to interact with this front leading to the rains. Soaking rains of .5″ to 1″ are possible for the southern and eastern parts of the state with a sharp cutoff on the western edge of the rain shield. Here is a look at what I’m expecting…

Much of the day should be dry as clouds thicken up. Rain will break out across our southern counties and lift northeastward with the heaviest rains to fall during the evening and overnight hours. Highs today will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Here is your regional radar to track the developing rains…

The rain will depart to our northeast pretty quickly on Thursday as one low pressure works up the east coast. It is looking more and more likely we get a second low to pop across the southeast coast and ride northward. The model “trend” has been back toward this low being stronger and farther west as our trough digs in behind it. This trough basically captures the upper low now across the Gulf and goes toward, at least, a partial phase leading to a fairly big storm.

That said… unless this storm REALLY cranks up and comes even farther west… it would keep most of the synoptic precipitation just to our east along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. As of now… we will be in a strong northwesterly wind flow from Thursday night through Saturday with little impulses riding southward into the region. The Great Lakes are warm and the cold winds blowing across the water will pick up quite a bit of moisture to bring downstream to us. This looks to be in the form of rain and snow showers for Friday with a quick switch to snow showers and flurries from Friday evening into Saturday. Even the GFS is showing this…

I would not be surprised at all to see some areas pick up a roof top dusting of snow Friday night into Saturday morning. That will especially be true for areas getting in on repeat snow showers across the eastern half of the state.

Both the NAM and GFS are trying to hint at a coating for some areas…

You notice the NAM really blows up some heavy snow in the highest elevations of the West Virginia mountains because it is coming around to a farther westward tracking low.

As far as temps go… highs in the upper 30s and low 40s will be with us for Friday and Saturday… especially east. Lows will dip well into the low and mid 20s this weekend.

Looking down the road…

– Temps will warm quickly from Sunday into the first half of next week as highs in the 60s return.

– A cold front will approach the area by the end of the week with our next rain threat. This front should usher in colder air and maybe some backlash flakes for next weekend.

– The pattern continues to show it wants to head toward a wintry pattern trying to lock in later this month into most of December.

Ok… that’s it for me with this post. I feel like I rambled some as a lack of sleep this week is catching up to me. I need to pace myself since this is only the first week of November.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.