Good Tuesday everyone and Happy Election Day. A lot of folks often use the weather as an excuse to not go out and vote. If you are one of those people… today is not going to be the day for you to use Mother Nature as a crutch. Conditions today will be terrific as partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 50s and low 60s give us a winner.
Winter weather fans are interested in our brush with the old man coming later this week and I will get to that in just a bit.
Some high clouds will be with us again today… similar to what we had Monday. High temps will range from the mid and upper 50s north to the low 60s across the south and west. Overall… a great fall day.
Wednesday looks like another pretty good day as we await the arrival of a cold front from the northwest. Some clouds will increase by afternoon and winds will gust up a bit ahead of this boundary. Temps Wednesday should spike up a few degrees from where we are today.
That front blasts through here Thursday with a couple of showers and gusty winds. Temps will fall quickly as the front moves through with early day highs near 50 falling toward 40 by evening.
As far as the end of the week scenario looks… The more progressive of the solutions I outlined in my last blog appears to be the way to go right now. This means no big storm (we said that wasn’t very likely anyway) but we will likely get our first brush with winter weather with rain and snow showers breaking out Thursday night through early Saturday. Very cold air will be pouring southward across the Great Lakes into our region. This setup is one that usually picks up some lake moisture and drops it across parts of our region. The best chance for rain and snow showers will be across central and eastern Kentucky. Here is a look at the GFS precipitation type forecast…
You can actually see the moisture plumes coming off the lakes. The last of the panels shows the model putting down snow across the higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains. While it is VERY doubtful anyone sees sticking snows out of this around here… there is a small window for a rooftop duster Friday night in areas that get in on a heavier snow shower or two. 
How about the temps. This is a pretty darn cold air mass as you can see here on the European Model…
Friday and Saturday will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s across central and eastern Kentucky with mid and upper 40s out west. Lows each morning will dip into the mid and upper 20s.
We should see a quick warm up toward the low and mid 60s into early next week. That should get erased by the end of the week into the following weekend as another shot of cold moves in as we have a back and forth pattern that holds for the next few weeks. The days leading up to and around Thanksgiving should see our pattern really start to take on a wintry look that tries to lock in all the way through December. I am seeing the signs of what can be a pretty good early season wintry pattern around here that should feature the word arctic before all is said and done!
I will have updates as needed so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Ahhhh. Same ole
Question………….In the winter, when the GFS shows a huge storm……everyone says it’s out to lunch…….and the GFS is usually wrong and we don’t get the “big storm”………..Yet when the GFS shows barely a storm……most put their money on the GFS……….Funny how the GFS is right when we want it to be wrong and wrong when we want it to be right! I hate the GFS……Do you hear me…….hate it! :)………Ok I feel better
Actually, when you always hear “GFS is out to lunch” what usually ends up happening is GFS nails it. This week is a good case in point. Watch as we go throughout Winter.. everybody will be on the Euro bandwagon, and yet the GFS model will “keep it real”. You can’t wish a storm into being. We just have to face the fact that KY weather sucks in Winter most of the time.
All it takes is the Gulf system being 100 miles farther east, the front-running system 100 meters weaker and the back system 100 meters stronger, and we are back again where we were..
The major chill in the East has its cumpare and something that is also a big deal that our loveable GFS missed, the heat on the West Coast tomorrow and Thursday.
Did I miss the Winter Forecast or has it posted yet?
Why is there not a straight ticket option for “The Snow Party” on my ballot today!?
GFS “keeps it real”. Always good to have humor on election day.
Hmm, ads make their first appearance. Chris, if you need help keeping the site ad free, where can we donate?
Really? How many times has the GFS showed a huge storm a few days out, only to change it’s tune the last couple of days and do a complete turnaround?
Chris, when will your winter forecast come out?
Thanks and bring on the snow!!!
How many times did Euro show a massive Winter storm last year? And how many did we actually have? Exactly.
GFS does great, and it’s traditionally been better 5-10 days out than it is 3-5 days out. You just have to learn it’s ways.
From those things showing the precip it looks like the Lexington area get skipped by rain and snow. Big surprise. Most other forescast don’t show any type of precip to fall in the 7 day.
Jake