Good Monday everyone and welcome to the 11th month of the year that is known as November. October finished as another warmer and drier than normal month for most across the state. Our new month is looking to try to shake things up a bit as we see increasing prospects for the first taste of winter coming later this week.

The first couple days of November look pretty tame with near normal temps. Today will see partly sunny skies with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the north to around 60 in the west and south. Election Day Tuesday will see more of the same giving voters no excuse not to go out and cast a ballot. We should notice a few more clouds moving in by the end of the day… especially in the south and west.

The action gets started Wednesday as a huge trough digs in across the midwest then barrels south and eastward. There will be a couple of streams interacting with one another and the models are handling this interaction in a very different manner. We have many of the models showing a phasing of the two streams leading to a VERY potent low pressure developing across the Carolinas the lifting northward into the mid atlantic states before eventually being sucked back to the northwest into the lower great lakes. That happens as we get a hugh cut off upper level low spinning across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. This is the more extreme solution, but has had quite a bit of model support of late. This is what that solution would look like…

That track would mean we get rain breaking out here later Wednesday into Thursday. Winds would crank up and much colder air would swing in here late Thursday as the low goes by to our east then north. This would change whatever precip is falling over to a mix of rain and snow then eventually to snow for Friday with lingering snow showers and flurries into Saturday. This is also the solution that would give us our best hope of putting, at least, some snow on the ground. Again… that is only one solution.

The other solution on the table is one that does not get a full phasing of our jet streams and thus giving our low pressure a more progressive look…

That solution would mean some rain across the east Thursday with a switch over to rain and snow showers Thursday night and Friday with lingering light flurries or snow showers into early Saturday.

No matter the solution… temps are going to be cold later this week into the coming weekend. Highs should stay in the 40s for Thursday with 30s possible both Friday and Saturday as lows dip into the 20s. Both solutions also give us a decent chance at seeing the first snowflakes of the season.

There are also a couple of extreme options on the table in both directions. A solution like the Canadian model has been showing of late would be something that would actually put snow on the ground across much of the area. On the other end… if we get something like the GFS has been showing some flurries would be the extent of it. Truth be told… the outcome will likely be somewhere in between the two as we get our first taste of some winter weather. The more I look at where this pattern has been with these strong cutoffs lows… the more I wonder if the models showing the monster storm are just tryiing to tell us something about what the pattern later this month or into December is capable of.

Either way… this will be a fun week of tracking a big storm that has a great chance at delivering our first taste of winter weather. As always… the Center will be with you every step of the way with frequent updates.

Have a great Monday and take care.