Good afternoon everyone and Happy Halloween. I wanted to drop by for a few words on what appears to be a major storm at the end of the week. It is looking more and more likely we will see a big storm rolling from the deep south into the eastern Great Lakes or New England from Thursday through Saturday.

Here are some thoughts on this system…

– A trough will dig in Wednesday spawning low pressure to our southeast. Rain will increase around here later Wednesday as winds increase as well.

– This low will rapidly strengthen as it works north late Thursday into Friday. A cold rain and wind will be likely for Thursday.

– Even colder air will wrap in Thursday night and Friday as the low works to our east and eventually just to our northeast. Winds should continue to crank as well. Rain should mix with and even change to snow across much of the area. Temps Friday may stay in the 30s.

– A mix of rain and snow or snow would continue Friday night into early Saturday as a closed low dumbbells into the region. IF… and it is a big IF… we are to put snow on the ground… it would be during this time frame. Winds would continue to howl and lows Saturday morning hit the 20s with highs only recovering into the 30s.

That is only a rough outline on my preliminary thoughts as we are still several days away. This is a very impressive setup for any time of year… especially early November. Many of my winter analog years featured some snow around here during the first two weeks of November and that was one of the reasons I have been yapping about an early start to winter. We told you a few weeks back to watch the last week of October into the first week of November for a change to cold that could lead us into an early start to winter. This pattern was actually telegraphing itself pretty well a few weeks out and I am already seeing a similar telegraph showing up closer to Thanksgiving week.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves as this week will be plenty challenging. Will you get snow on the ground at some point… even if it’s just a little? That is possible. Will you see the first flakes of the season during this time? I think that has a HIGH chance of happening for a lot of people. As always… time will tell.

I will have a full update on the upcoming storm later tonight and will have plenty of updates in the coming days.

Happy Halloween and take care.