Good Sunday and Happy Halloween to one and all. The weather this Halloween weekend has been nothing short of perfect with cold mornings and mild afternoons. This has made for some good times for trick or treaters and for some of the older folks hitting those Halloween parties.

As we enjoy some nice weather now… our focus turns toward some big changes for the middle and end of the week ahead that will threaten to give us an early taste of winter.

Let’s start with what we have now and that is some nice, but increasingly colder weather over the next few days. A weak front is crossing the area today and will knock our temps down several degrees from where we were Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 50s north to low 60s south with a partly sunny sky.

Highs for Monday and Election Day Tuesday will generally be in the mid and upper 50s under partly sunny skies. There will be a small chance for some showers in extreme western Kentucky Tuesday. Lows during this time will be in the upper 20s and low 30s.

That brings us to what is lurking for the middle and end of the week and that could easily be our first brush with winter weather. This has been talked about here on the blog for a few days now and is a pattern we first started picking up on a few weeks ago. A big trough with plenty of cold air will dig in across the eastern half of the country. Low pressure will develop across the Carolinas and ride northward. The question is… just how strong will this low become? Some of the model runs over the past few days have shown one heck of a storm. The Canadian Model has actually been locked on to this scenario for several days now. It doesn’t mean it is right… but it does make you pay attention to what it’s saying…

Taken verbatim… that would be a massive storm for a lot of people. It would bring us a ton of rain and wind initially that would go over to snow and wind as cold air wraps in here. Again… let me stress… THAT IS NOT MY FORECAST… it is just what the model is showing right now. I have to give the model some credit as it has been very consistent!

The European Model has been fairly consistent as well and has been showing a scaled back version of the maps above…

You have those two models that have been holding course then you have the GFS. This model has been….how shall we say it… BAD in terms of consistency. It is totally worthless right now as it has the cold… but can’t figure out if there will be a storm or not.

What do I think? I would say the Canadian is likely overdone and the European Model likely has a pretty good grasp of the situation. That would bring rain in here for later Wednesday into Thursday with a switch to rain and/or snow for Thursday night and Friday. Beyond that… it is too early to try to get very specific.

This will be a fun week of blogging as we get things started off a little early this year.

Happy Halloween and take care.