Good Saturday everyone and welcome to Halloween Weekend. I know many areas have already had trick or treating… but a lot of towns and cities will have ghosts and goblins filling the streets the next few evenings. The weather looks great for trick or treating during this time as mother nature offers up some non scary conditions.
That may not be the case later next week as a big trough digs in across the eastern half of the country. This will deliver a big time shot of cold for a lot of people… including our part of the world. This trough has a lot of possibilities with it as a big low pressure is likely to form across the east coast. More on all that in a bit.
Temps Friday morning we held up a few degrees as clouds lingered a bit longer than I thought. That will not be the case this morning as clear skies mean we with readings hitting the high 20s and low 30s… especially across the eastern half of the state. Here is a look at the lows from this morning.
Sunny skies will boost temps up into the 60s for highs giving us a great Saturday. Sunday will see a weak front working southward across the region. This front will knock our temps down a few degrees. Areas in the north will see upper 50s to near 60 as the south warms into the low 60s.
That chilly air will continue to settle southward for Monday and Election Day Tuesday. Highs will likely stay in the 50s with lows dipping into the low 30s. This looks to be a dry period.
Once to Wednesday and beyond… the action across the eastern half of the country looks to get cranking. This is when our cold air pushes southward and takes up residence for several days. The plunge of cold really takes hold later Thursday into Friday and Saturday. This happens as low pressure cranks up near the Carolina coast and rides northward into interior New England… strengthening as it does so. This is likely to become a very powerful storm in the northeast. How far west will this storm come and can it throw some moisture back our way? That is something we will tackle as we get closer. Regardless… the deep trough over us is likely to have some disturbances cruising southeastward into the area. This should be more than enough to touch off some rain showers. I am seeing model thickness values down into the 528 range for Friday morning and… should that occur with precipitation around… some wet snowflakes could mix in with the rain. You can see this shot of cold air very well on the European Model…
The European Model has been VERY consistent with the overall evolution of this pattern. The GFS is just starting to come around to this line of thinking and has more work to do. If one corrects the eastward/progressive bias of the model… you would get a solution similar to the Euro. The Canadian has been the wild model of late as it brings a slow moving low much farther west into the eastern Ohio Valley for Tuesday and Wednesday. That brings soaking rains in here. That low then heads slowly northeastward merging with a second system dropping southward and forming a major New England storm. The model also tries to entrain the soon to be Hurricane Tomas leading to a crazy setup.
Did someone say Hurricane? Yep…. Tomas is expected to become a monster storm in the Caribbean as Tropical Storm Shary brushes Bermuda as it heads out to sea. Here is a look at a suddenly busy tropical map…
Here is a look at the impressive Tomas…
That is a massive storm that is forecast to become a major hurricane as we head into November. Wow!
There ya have it… a major hurricane in the Caribbean and something that sounds and looks like winter for us to track in the first week of November. 
Have a great Saturday and take care.
I need to tell my Houston friend what to pack for sitting outside at Churchill Downs a week from today. The local forecasters are showing nothing but sunny skies for the next eight days.
Widespread frost on the farm this morning.
Hit 30f at my house in Nicholasville. Defintely had frost and most of my Elephant Ears are done for. This was our first time below 32f but our second frost.
Looks like Thomas may hit Haiti next week as a cat 3 or 4 hurricane. Not good.
I had a chance to read WxRisk’s winter forecast and it’s pretty disappointing for snow lovers. Pretty much, we can expect beach weather this winter. He did predict a warm winter last year though.
Having said that, he made an important observation and one I have been worried about this year. He said this winter the GFS will send out a lot of false alarms in the 6-10 time range. Haven’t we already seen that this year?
It sort of reminds me of 2001-2002. All fall in 2001, the GFS showed cold air just 6-10 days aways, but it never materialized. As a result, the winter was very warm.
Chris, I know you’ve been mentioning cold, but what do you think about the false alarm scenario?
01-02 totally different set-up. moderate el-nino was in place we have a strong la-nina this winter.
interesting read though, this time the teleconnection pattern backs the gfs.
I wasn’t speaking to the setup as much as I was noticing how that winter and, so far, this year both feature cold shots always at day 6-10.
The latest European and Canadian models are incredible looking for the end of next week. Early season fun and games? Wow!!
Considering it was way different from the 30/00Z run, I am not biting yet. Plus, the sfc temps were still too warm on the 12Z run for anything to stick. Now, if you’re on Black Mountain…yeah.