Good Friday morning everyone. Most folks woke up to frost and freezing conditions out there this morning as we gear up for a chilly start to our Halloween weekend. The weather for our weekend looks pretty nice for the end of October. It’s what may be coming for the first week of November that is grabbing my attention.

In the short term… most of the state will start out today with readings down into the upper 20s and lower 30s. You can check out the morning lows here…

High temps will range from near 50 in the north and east to the low and mid 50s west. Here is a look at your current temps…

Tonight is likely to feature even colder temps for much of the region as even more of the state should drop below 32. Brrrr!

Saturday and Halloween Sunday look great as the weather cooperates for trick or treaters. Highs both days will warm into the low to mid 60s under partly sunny skies. Readings will be back in the 30s to start Sunday.

A weak system rolls eastward across the Ohio Valley Monday with a few clouds and a chance for a shower or two. Colder air will filter in for Election Day Tuesday as highs come back down into the 50s. It does look dry for voters heading to the polls.

What happens beyond Election Day is catching my attention as the models seem to have two trains of thought. The first thought is from the GFS family of models which says a trough will dig in across the eastern half of the country for the middle and end of the week. The GFS has been closing off low pressure over the deep south into the Gulf of Mexico and leaving it there as it eventually dampens out. That solution leaves the our region dry with only a moderate cool down. This looks VERY out of whack and does not fit the season nor the actual pattern. After all… it IS the GFS!  It appears to be trying to come around with its latest run.

Most of the other models show a MUCH different solution as they do not cut as much of the energy off across the deep south and instead slingshot it northward to merge with more energy dropping in from the upper midwest. That gives us a completely different look with a deep trough across the eastern US with a strong low pressure riding up the east coast.

The Canadian, Japanese and European models have all been pretty consistent in showing something similar to the above scenario. Here is how the European Model plays it…

(Those are from the same exact model run using two different sites. )

If the European Model and the others are to be believed… that would be a heck of a shot of cold air moving in by the middle and end of next week. It would also put areas across the Appalachian Mountains in play for the first taste of wintry weather. We shall see how the model battle works out in the coming days as this gives us something to track very early this season.

I will try to post some of the newer runs for this storm later today so check back.

Before I leave you today… you want to know why high winds and mobile homes don’t mix? Check out this video from Tennessee…

Have a great Friday and take care.