Good evening, gang. Snow showers and snow squalls are packing a wicked punch across the region this evening. I labeled this as a high impact travel impact event and that’s exactly what we are seeing with snow and ice covered roads throughout central and eastern Kentucky.
Hundreds of accidents have been reported today and that’s the bad part about all this. Many of us like to see the snow, but there’s a downside to it all for those who have to travel.
Travel conditions won’t improve much tonight as the flakes keep flying and temps continue to drop. Readings will head into the high single digits by morning. Gusty winds will give us a wind chill of 0 to -10 at times. That’s in the danger category, so limit your time outside.
What’s next on the weather agenda? It’s the mega blast of arctic air on tap for early next week. This will be accompanied by a snow maker on Sunday into Sunday night. How much snow this thing produces will be the focus of the forecast going forward. The more snow it can put down, the colder those temps will be early next week. Sub-zero readings are LIKELY across the state with or without a lot of snow. If we can get more than a couple of inches… the numbers can get absurd.
Gusty winds will accompany this blast and wind chills of -20 to -30 degrees will be possible.
While I’m at it… keep a close eye on the end of next week for a snow or ice maker. Yep… this is a wicked pattern we’re in.
Let’s get back to tracking the nastiness of this evening…
Current temperatures
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
I-75 at MP 36 London
View of Downtown Harlan
I-75 at MP 36 London
I-75 at MP 23 Corbin
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville
Stay safe and take care.
Snowing pretty steady in Richmond we have close to .5″ now. Will be interesting to see CB’s take on Sunday night.
A toast is in order Bubba. You broke the dusting mark lmao
>:(
Get ready.
thanks Chris, I am going to be Swiss concerning Sunday.
Snowing now well it has been for about 30 minutes.
Does todays snow cover help our chances with the storm track on Sunday?
No, since it should get above freezing and melt by Saturday evening. Not much snow to avoid that.
Ok, thanks for the response!
HAH!!
Clarence;
In all honesty, prepare for the cold. It will be brutal, especially for places like we are in where single digits feel cold. Add anything you can to feel warmer, whether it be to your body or otherwise. It’s going to get COLD. Even without snow it would be cold. But more snow it is. Get ready. You have advance warning.
Thanks Aaron!
Hah HAH! The question was will the current snow pack help the Sunday track. This stuff will melt, since not enough of it to survive the above freezing temps on Sat & Sun.
No staying power with a dry fluffy snow, need several inches of wet snow that has froze a few nights for staying power! Sun and temps above freezing will eat this quickly!
And I can eat a 6″ sub quickly! As though snow never falls where it hasn’t before….oops, that just breaks all logic, now doesn’t it? Why in the WORLD did it snow here today? It must be a metaphysical anomaly!
Sorry, but what the **** does the current snowpack have anything going on on Sunday?
I’M SURE the 2 inches of snow you “might’ve” gotten is going to radiate out 100,000 feet and up into the atmosphere 30,000 feet for it to make a difference. *rolls eyes*
On top of that, I guess the last storm started out as snow too, didn’t it?
Have about an inch of snow here in Lex and still coming down at a good pace! Will this snow pack stick around until the next system, ’cause maybe it’ll help the next rain/snow system on Sunday to accumulate even if little falls but on top of snow pack. So that would for sure send temps much lower.
I think the cold is the bigger story here tonight. If you are driving, just slow down! I had someone tailgating me about an hour ago–why??
Cold was always suppose to be the story
Still waiting on the big one. My son wants to build a snow man, any chance Sunday could be the day?
Road crews seem to be having a hard time keeping roads clear in Laurel County. Many main roads are snow covered with reports of stand-still traffic. If you don’t have to be out, don’t go. Just sit at home and talk about our hopeful snowstorm for Sunday night…just in time to extend our Christmas Break around here 🙂
One thing’s for sure—it doesn’t always take a big snow for it to feel like winter.
My early prediction: 3-6″ of snow for Central KY for the Sunday event. With temps below zero this will be a near CRIPPLING event for most places. School closings, business closings and the whole nine yards. This big of a brutal invasion could cause significant problems.
Batten down the hatches NOW———–it will get cold, it will be rough. Get ready. NOW.
Have to get about 4 inches of snow if we don’t get that most likely will not get below 0
HAHAH. You’re funny.
My Marine training has readied me for such events! I drink cold Buds in Speedos in that kind of cold. OOOORAHHHHH! 🙂
Somehow I missed that part of the training 🙂 Semper Fi!
Bubba–where did you serve? I was at Camp Pendleton and then in Okinawa. Never had to worry about cold weather on the California coast!
Any tips for protecting pipes and that sort of thing? Our washing machine is in our garage.
This may be the coldest temperature I’ve ever experienced.
Not sure what is best. The only time I’ve had pipes freeze was in ’94. Don’t think it will get as cold as it did then.
They make an insulation wrap for pipes. You should be able to get it at Lowe’s or another similar store.
Thank you!
Living in Houston & Austin did not prepare me for this.
Still snowing in Irvine, wind blowing very hard, and the temp is brutal!
Ugh. Lol. This is going to be wicked. For several years, we’ve been spoiled by lows in the lower teens in the winters. Hah! Funny. Get ready, folks–you’ve been warned WELL in advance.
I just want to say THANK YOU to CB. Chris has detractors no matter what he posts but he never lets it get to him. You do a great job and this system is another example. Chris’s goal is to give us plenty of heads up on what he believes can be impactful event days ahead of time.
Sunday COULD be interesting! I’d like our chances for a big snow if Chris was talking about it MORE than the cold.
We are very lucky to have Chris looking ahead for us to give us the heads up we need he know his weather stuff….
The last time we had -10 temps was in 1996. We are overdue. As much as I’d like those kind of temps to stay away, I think it might happen on Tuesday.
you must be banking on 4+ inches of snow then
I am now. Closing in on an inch in Lawrenceburg. Doesn’t take long with temps in the teens for the snow to accumulate.
what we get tonite will melt before sunday event I think
Yep. Only way not to is if we get a lot more snow than planned- that along with clouds during the day to reduce thermals and clear skies at night to set the warmth free.
Oh well the wind is unreal and blowing the snow around I love it!!!!!!!!!!
I was pumping gas on the plateau there at Costco around 5pm and it looked like the howling tundra as far as you could see. Beautiful!
Berea reporting in with almost a 1/4 of an inch. First measurable snow since October, so we’ll take it.
Bubba, Andy Rose, or anyone else happen to find a reason why the significant icing event was left out of the discussion going into this morning?
I think the mets just dropped the ball in those areas.
Simple. Temps above freezing with a rapid freeze-up within 2 hours. Not hard for them to see. They merely left it out of the equation. :/
No matter if its 15 below Tuesday or 3 above does it really matter after you drop below 5??
ITS GOING TO BE COLD FOLKS 🙂
I know – I mean how could you feel the difference between -5 and -20. Since both are bitterly cold, I would think it would be difficult to tell
In ’94 -5 actually felt ok during the day after the -25 the previous morning. I think it is all relative to what we are used to.
I think if their is wind envolved makes a huge difference, I can remember in the early 80s being out in 40 below wind chills with actual temps above 0 and
That was brutal, if its calm and -5 actual temp, much more tolerable!
I agree. The 1994 event was colder than 1985 but the wind chill in 1985 was crazy. I think it was like -60 under the old wind chill formula. Probably closer to -40 today but still crazy!
Dumb question:
So the depth of the snow makes a difference in how cold the temps would be..? So a 20 in snow would send temps colder than a 10 inch snow? I’m just trying to understand what difference the depth makes in the temps.
Thanks
My understanding is that the snow creates a blanket that a)reflects the day’s solar radiation and b)prevents warmth of the ground from percolating into the air. More snow probably helps but only to a point.
Thanks, Chris ! Folks, please check on those who need it! I know I will be preparing for an electric outage , just-in-case ! We have young children and it never hurts to be prepared.
Yahoo Falls will start forming what we call it’s “Ice Volcano.” When it gets really cold, it starts freezing Upward 🙂 Its something to see if you havent seen it before – highest waterfall in the commonwealth too !
We went to Cumberland Falls last year and we found Yahoo Falls. The story behind the falls is horrible but a very pretty place. Would like to see that ice formation.
My comment was supposedly posted but I don’t see it. Sorry if it is reposted.
We happened onto Yahoo Falls while visiting Cumberland Falls. Pretty place but tragic story. Would like to see ice volcano.
And I’ve always noticed something else. If you look at the radar right now, it always shows a void of precip with this type of setup, yet snow is falling. It always shows stronger returns over Louisville and surrounding Louisville, but not central KY, even though it is snowing . Does this have something to do with it showing up because it’s closer to the radar itself?
Nope. 😀 It has to do with upslope wind factors and how far back they extend to the west. You need to look at upper-air wind patterns. Moisture does not always snow make. Do you need more Yoda? 😛
I’m “okay” at what I do, even if I don’t get paid for it. 😛
Yes, because there is not a whole lot of moisture in the flakes tonight, the radar cannot pick them up as easily that far away. Higher snow to liquid ratios tonight because temps are so cold, so the snowflakes have less moisture within them. That’s why when Chris showed the returns from WKYT’s Defender radar, it showed our area filled in with snow, then he switched the map to show only the returns from the NWS radars and they showed nothing over central parts of the state (we are quite a good distance away from any of the NWS radar sites).
Agree jake, see this every winter when we get high ratio dry snow! I’ve seen 2-3 inch snows in Frankfort with very little showing on radar!
Once the temps crashed that snow accumulated fast. Closing in on and inch in Lawrenceburg. Temp is 17, wind chill about 0.
My comments seem to be getting lost on the intertubes. Anyways, Chris Mercer, I just want to thank you for posting all of the trivia and weather records. I enjoy reading your comments and find them very reasonable and professional.
I also always enjoy Chris Mercer’s comments. He always has interesting facts and bits of information.
2 inches of snow measured in southeastern laurel county.
God, I love the snow. Even if it is in 15 minute increments. Probably more than anybody else on here. Hahaha…..
No offense Aaron,but,you might actually like snow as much as me my friend,but not more. I am a big kid when it comes to snow. I remember growing up here in Kentucky during those 1970’s winters. The daily snowball fights,the sledding and the huge snow forts that lasted for months. Now those were the days. Sighhhhh….
🙂
Aaron C. do you think we will get 3 to 6 inches do snow in eastern ky & how far below zero do you think it’s going to get?
Downtown Louisville barely anything east end of Louisville some spots approaching 2 inches the nature of the beast when you get snow squalls
I just left my Mom’s house in the Bonnycastle neighborhood and when I got back to my house across from Bowman Field, I could tell a huge difference. I have much more snow than she does.
Awww me and Kelly are neighbors I live off Lexington Rd and Cannons by Seneca Park 🙂
Just on the other side of the airport from you back behind Bearno’s.
I’ve got to be over at just off I-64 and Hurstbourne early tomorrow. Hoping the roads are good. Would like to stop at Panera for a good cup of coffee!
Test
Hello! 🙂
The blog won’t let me put anything more than a question, I was trying to answer markLex’s question.
*sentence, not question (second is real)
hello hello
Hello hello hello
What are we in some sort of cave? Is there a echo??? Have we left the dome???
Does anyone have a blowtorch I can borrow? Lol
Bryant–sorry, I’m busy using mine to clear my driveway from all this snow! 🙂
Wish I did. Don’t like this wind!!
Bryant if its any conciliation 50s are showing up in about 2 weeks or so!
I’ll be glad to see 50’s come!
Hard to measure an exact amount due to the wind blowing and drifting the snow. I would guess we have about 1.5 inches in Lawrenceburg. The temp is 15. If you like winter weather this is your night!
Small snow bands has given isolated spots 3 inch snows tonight, but most an inch or less, sounds like Chris nailed this one!
We have about 2″ in Richmond. Hard to tell due to wind the wind and dryness of it.
EPIC 🙂
It is Epic!
You mean you have more snow south of the river than I do? I can’t believe it!
Might be 1.5″, I really can not tell, but still coming down ATM. Looks like 1.5″ settled, so guessing .5″ more.
I think we are about even. It is hard to tell with the wind the exact amount. The snow has tapered to flurries here, but looks like it might start back up soon.
BTW, I was an 0331 machine gunner. Paris Island, Camp Lejeune and then was mainly stationed in Europe with the Naval Headquarters, Marine Security Detachment.
Odd place for a Marine!
Only a light dusting here and flurries have all but stopped. Oh well. Didn’t even expect that much so no disappointment. t
Okay, as mentioned yesterday, CB (27/56) differed significantly in forecasts last night with channel 18. BM and company stated a coating to less than an inch for all but the far north (as per their map) and completely missed the evening flow of snow. 18 failed badly with this event and CB nailed it. CB does not get them all right all the time and 18 does not miss them all the time, but as mentioned I would compare the differing forecasts tonight.
For 2014 Winter CB 1 and BM 0. No, I will not doing a tally all winter since, I have a short attention span 🙂
Yes, CB nailed it. I was griping about the cold rain this morning, but this event played out just like he said it would.
Oh yeah, and West-central Florida is in a wind chill advisory with wind chills as low as 20 to 30 degrees! Huh, makes us seem like Siberians, but then again, only in Minnesota do they call single digits above zero “warm.” Now that makes us seem like the Floridians.
Still pouring the now in southeastern laurel county.
We have at least an inch of snow here in Shelbyville, maybe more. Temperature is down to 16.
Chris Bailey is hands down the best met in KY. He doesn’t care to go out on a limb and tell you what he thinks might happen. Yes, sometimes he may give the worst case scenario. But, at least he has pair to do it, the rest of them are afraid to be wrong. IMO
Amen you are right best comment of the year…
I agree.
In my area of Louisville, the northeast corner, we’ve probably picked up about 1.5 inches of very fluffy snow. So while the initial system drastically underperformed, the squalls overperform. Having said that, SDF, the reporting station had far, far less. Barely a trace.
Turning our attention towards the weekend, the next system has all the signs of a major letdown. At least in the is area, rain forecasted to change to snow and accumulate almost never happens as predicted. Maybe I’m reading between the lines too much, but I get the sense CB is sensing the same since the cold is getting a bigger mention.
However, the NWS does show Louisville in slight risk for moderate snow.
I agree…whispers from other mets too seem to be walking us back from the ledge of the arctic beast that I was sooooo hoping for. I am also in NE Louisville…the Dome holds its reputation tightly.
I think Chris is busy with tonight’s snow that has overperformed in some areas before he starts to focus on Sunday possibilities, models are going to flip flop until Saturday anyway!
I think you will see more in depth discussion about the Sunday system from CB tonight. He has posted about it the past few days, but has been more focused on the current system moving through.
Considering CB has not talked much about snow and mainly the cold, it would seem for now a few inches is best case. Again, he has yet to go into threat mode for any of this, so big snow does not seem a factor. CB would be all over it and tweeting, etc if he thought there was a good shot.
The current average of the current models seems the way to go for now. There has been talk by some mets that the GFS is/was showing a good snow now, but was showing nothing on previous runs. GFS = bipolar.
CB has mentioned “several inches” of snow in each discussion he’s had about the Sunday system. Of course he’s going to focus on the cold air because it’s not every day, year or decade we get temperatures as cold as they are going to be early next week. As for the GFS, it’s been fairly consistent with putting down several inches of snow statewide the past several runs, so I’m not sure what you are seeing there.
It was showing rain on previous runs until the past several runs. It tends to be one of the main wafflers.
So Bubba drinks beer in speedos? Might be the next material for a Nickelback song! 😉
Oops, dropped something! 🙂
Early run of the GFS is looking stronger..Blue bomb in western and points north..Just need the system to drag more south east..
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
So is this good for louisville and southern indiana? I keep hearing from local mets that it wont be a big snow storm for the louisville area. They say the snow will be heaviest in central indiana.
By the looks, it’s good for the whole state..still hoping it slides a little more south east
All depends..If the low can take a more SE track it should drag the cold in earlier..Few days to go but something too keep an eye on..Lets just hope the GFS is right and keeps trending stronger.
Chris just tweeted that the gfs continues to show snow and unreal cold sunday
Chris just tweeted that the gfs continues to show snow and unreal cold sunday
The weather app on my phone has now switched from rain on Sunday to snow on Sunday with lower temps…comon snowstorm!
I don’t get this someone just said the nam and the gfs was caving to the euro someone example this please
I no longer have access to the Euro so have no idea what it is showing..The Nam has the system more NE than the GFS..The GFS is trending stronger and is more SE but not much..We want the low to keep digging more SE like what the GFS is showing..Tomorrow runs will make or break IMO..
The trend on the GFS is to the Northwest not the Southeast.
12z run
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
00z run
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0